1Wk·

Beginning of a small/large correction ?

📊Reviews:

The S&P 500 $CSPX (-0.44%) is currently trading at a high price/earnings ratio (approx. 21.5), which is above the 5-year average. A lot of positive news is already priced in (?)

🔐Extreme market concentration:

The S&P 500 $CSPX (-0.44%) is more top-heavy than ever before. The top 10 companies (including Nvidia $NVDA (-0.73%) Microsoft $MSFT (+1.63%) Apple $AAPL (-0.66%) ) currently account for over 40 % of the total market capitalization of the index.

- The problem: For comparison - during the dotcom bubble in 2000, this figure was only around 27%. If just two or three of these heavyweights deliver disappointing figures, this can drag the entire index down, even if the remaining 490 stocks remain stable.

📈The expectation:

Analysts have extremely high expectations for companies' earnings growth in 2026 (in some cases 14-16 %).

- The risk: The market is currently "perfectly priced in". This means that even good news often no longer leads to price gains, while the smallest disappointments (e.g. AI investments that pay off more slowly than expected) lead to disproportionately high sell-offs.

Weakening of the US consumer

US private consumption is the engine of the US economy. Cracks are appearing here:

- Credit card delinquency: Credit card delinquency rates (90+ days) have risen to over 2,5 % have risen.

- Household debt: At a record high of over 18.8 trillion USD in household debt, consumers' resilience is reaching its limits, especially if interest rates remain high for longer than expected.

And last but not least

🤖 Fear (?) of artificial intelligence :

This is currently the biggest bugbear on Wall Street. Companies like Microsoft $MSFT (+1.63%) , Alphabet $GOOGL (-0.95%) and Meta $META (+0.45%) have poured hundreds of billions of dollars into data centers and chips (Nvidia).

- The problem: Investors are now asking: "Where's the profit?" If productivity gains in the broader economy (e.g. banking or marketing) don't increase fast enough to justify these gigantic expenditures, a massive revaluation of tech stocks looms.

How do you assess the current situation? Have I forgotten anything or have I described it incorrectly? Let's discuss 🗣️

@Tenbagger2024
@Multibagger
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin
@TradingHase
@Liebesspieler @WarrenamBuffet
@Sansebastian
@Klein-Anleger
@Dividendenopi

36 Comments

Sansebastian@Sansebastian

1Wk

As already mentioned a few times, we are in a mid-term election year in the USA. These years are usually very turbulent and can certainly lead to bear markets on the stock exchanges. Since Trump is in power, this time it will probably really come down to a major correction. The problem with Trump is that there is a lot of uncertainty - and the stock market doesn't like uncertainty at all. That's why it's damn important now not to just buy any dip, because more dips could follow ;-) Waiting for a bottom to form is the be-all and end-all. I'd rather miss out on a few percent before I'm permanently in the red. And one more thing: stay calm! No FOMO and trade wisely :-)

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

1Wk

@Sansebastian I also believe that the NVIDIA figures will play a major role. If a fly in the ointment is found, it could really rattle. We'll see 🫡
But I share your opinion 😬

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Sansebastian@Sansebastian

1Wk

@Aktienhauptmeister The market will find something that doesn't suit it :P

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

1Wk

@Sansebastian the way the market is behaving at the moment, it could very well be possible haha. It feels like the odds are 80:20 😂

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Epi@Epi

1Wk

@Sansebastian A solidly tested short strategy should also do well this year...

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Sansebastian@Sansebastian

1Wk

@Epi I see it the same way

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Max@Divident_e

1Wk

@Sansebastian ok. Then let's listen to you and your wisdom

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Sansebastian@Sansebastian

1Wk

@Divident_e please make up your own mind and don't follow blindly. Everything can turn out differently 😉

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bull_investor_1994_@bull_investor_1994_

1Wk

@Sansebastian I don't see it that way. I still think it makes sense to buy in small tranches at an entry price you set for yourself. You never hit the perfect entry price straight away.

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Sansebastian@Sansebastian

1Wk

@bull_investor_1994_ I never talked about the perfect time. There's just no point in buying the dip, then another dip and the next. But you'll know what you're doing

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bull_investor_1994_@bull_investor_1994_

1Wk

@Sansebastian Let's assume I buy Microsoft shares in tranches now and am convinced that they will rise in the long term - please explain my error in reasoning if I have one. I think you mean that by buying the supposed dip too many times you are in the red - yes, but only in the short term. How do you recognize a supposed bottom formation? How long does it have to run to be considered as such? These are serious questions.

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

1Wk

A not inconsiderable multiple compression has already taken place across sectors, particularly with regard to software shares. There are also cracks in the growth expectations for banks and credit card companies. Both are currently "only" due to AI scepticism.

What should not be forgotten with regard to the index multiples is that profit growth currently still (!) justifies the underlying multiples. However, as soon as there is an accumulation of missteps in Big Tech, there will probably be corresponding, and probably more severe, setbacks.

Against this background, I have also restructured my portfolio. I currently hold ~40% US shares and largely manage without Big Tech. In addition, I am focusing on a generous FCF margin, which provides a certain safety buffer even in the event of a significant fall in earnings.
Furthermore, focus on established, strong business models that are not primarily tech-heavy. Quality and "stability" instead of explosive growth.

My original plan was to implement the whole thing in or after the second quarter, but now it seems to have been implemented ahead of schedule at a relatively opportune time. Today, 3 more stocks will be added to the portfolio, then the rough new structure will be in place and I'll get to work on my contribution over the next few days.😅👍🏻

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

1Wk

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin NVIDIA's figures this week will point the way forward. If a fly in the ointment is found, it will be bad. I await your presentation with shining eyes my best 🙏🏽

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TradingHase@TradingHase

1Wk

The S&P500 is my largest ETF position and I have not been happy with this weighting for a few weeks now.
My plan was to sell half of the position and allocate it to other ETFs. Unfortunately, my target price was just not reached and therefore no sale was triggered.
Now I am in the dilemma of selling below my target price or holding. 🤷🏼‍♂️

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Steve91@Steve91

1Wk

Think long-term

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Chris@Multibagger

1Wk

@Steve91 then I would be worried. In the long term, we will see a significant correction followed by a bear market. For me as a short-term trader, these corrections are annoying, but I can also trade on negative performance.

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BeachPlease@BeachPlease

1Wk

@TradingHase Recession, baby! Mr. 🍊 is not on Tariffmania for no reason 😉

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Wk

@TradingHase I think it makes more sense to do stock picking at the moment. As already written, the weighting of the big 7 is high here, and that's where the air is out at the moment. The best ETF last year was the one with European banks.

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TradingHase@TradingHase

1Wk

@Tenbagger2024 That's why I want to sell half of it 🤷🏼‍♂️

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Robin@Nemesis1990

1Wk

@TradingHase hold and wait :) at some point your target price will be reached, especially now that the markets are going crazy again and people are selling in panic ... the day will come when you say thank goodness I waited 😀

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Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

1Wk

@Multibagger Do you think we'll see the ATHs again this year? Or is that it for now with green months 😅😬

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Chris@Multibagger

1Wk

@Klein-Anleger I can't tell you that, but if it does, it should happen in the first half of the year and it is more likely to be new ATHs in the single-digit % range.

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bull_investor_1994_@bull_investor_1994_

1Wk

@Multibagger we have already experienced a significant correction....?

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Chris@Multibagger

1Wk

@bull_investor_1994_ That depends on what you see as a significant correction. I think we will see prices below 22,000 on the Nasdaq. If things go badly, 20,000, then we can speak of a correction.

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SanSebastian@WarrenamBuffet

1Wk

The software sector and the financial sector have been correcting sharply for weeks now

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

1Wk

@WarrenamBuffet and now it's the turn of the cybersecurity sector 🫡

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SanSebastian@WarrenamBuffet

1Wk

@Aktienhauptmeister exactly ^^

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Liebesspieler@Liebesspieler

1Wk

@Aktienhauptmeister Good contribution, thanks for that.

In many respects, the content matches what I wrote in "Der Crash kommt - oder doch nicht?".

In my view, the classification of valuation and expectations is particularly important. The high forward P/E ratio and the Shiller CAPE are not a short-term warning signal, but show one thing above all: there is hardly any room for further multiple expansion. Returns must now come from operational development.

The concentration effect explains much of the perceived overvaluation. A large proportion is attached to a few heavyweights, while the rest of the market is valued much more soberly. This also fits in with the market sentiment: no broad euphoria, but a clear spread.

That is why the question "crash or further up" is too short-sighted. We are in a mature phase in which expectations are high and disappointments have consequences again. Quality counts, hope alone is no longer enough.

You can also see this clearly with AI. The investments are real, as is the question of return. This is precisely where substance and story are separated.

In the end, it is less about the market as a whole and more about clean selection. Acting selectively, substance before narrative, reconciling expectation and price. This is exactly where opportunities are currently arising.

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David@Redfox77

1Wk

I am invested via Spytips and am therefore relatively relaxed about the situation.

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