4H·

Presentation after 5 years Getquin

Having been a more or less silent reader here for a few years now, I would like to introduce myself, my investor history and my goals. I would also be pleased to receive portfolio feedback.


About me: 31, married for 6 years, Dinki (double income, no kids), savings rate currently approx. 1200€ (my wife invests a similar amount separately), live in a condominium with a garden that has not yet been paid off, hobbies: traveling and gardening.


If you don't want to read everything, I've divided the introduction into three chapters:


-My stock market history

-Portfolio allocation

-Targets/Plans


My stock market history


I started with the stock market in 2020 when I started my first real job. But I had no idea, no specific goals and was actually totally overwhelmed by the huge choice. As I come from a very humble background and had nothing to do with financial education, let alone wealth, it was hardly surprising. I just knew I had to do something about the nasty "pension gap". After all.


So of course I made all sorts of beginner's mistakes: trading back and forth, watching out for hypes, buying blindly, fomo, only looking at dividend yields, investing in 100 different shares with very small amounts, constantly changing my "strategy", buying the occasional unsuspecting co-note. It's amazing that I made 1-2% p.a. at all.


Then I sold all the stuff in the meantime to have money to finance our property and basically started again.


I realized that the previous approach was nonsense, as I had educated myself further in financial matters, not least because of and motivated by getquin. So I switched to a "concentrated" portfolio with a core ETF and 25 shares and a focus on dividends, a little gold and even less Bitcoin. But at the end of 2024, I also realized that managing this portfolio, if you want to do it properly (reading quarterly reports, constantly reanalyzing companies, etc.), is too time-consuming for these relatively small amounts.


So I decided to leave out the individual shares. At the same time, I read a lot and took the articles on strategy diversification and asset diversification to heart. It simply couldn't have been ACWI Buy and Hold. At that time he published @Epi published many articles on his 3xGTAA strategy, which was well explained and researched with a lot of effort and really tested something that I could also imagine for my portfolio. So the Wikifolio came at just the right time for me.


In this respect, I have divided my portfolio as follows since January 2025 (new start also in my Getquin portfolio):


Portfolio allocation


30% 3xGTAA

25% gold

25% Equities ETFs

20% Bitcoin


The rather large number of ETFs is due to the fact that I like to have ACWI 50/50 Eur-hedged and unhedged in order to be less exposed to currency fluctuations ( $SPP1 (+0.62%) and $SPYY (+0.18%) ). The $IWDA (+0.1%) still comes from 2021, into which my capital-forming benefits flow. $XNAS (+0.22%) is fed by the cashback from the Traderepublic credit card. It's kind of nice to see what happens to that little bit of cashback every month.


Overall, I think this portfolio is sufficiently diversified and concentrated in terms of strategies and asset classes. In addition, the return should be well above pure ACWI buy and hold and yet not have extreme drawdowns like this one. It is important to me to have various uncorrelated asset classes, but still have a strong overall return.


Bitcoin $BTC (-0.15%) does harbor risks for deep drawdowns, but also opportunities. I myself consider Bitcoin to be an extremely good store of value that will see further adaptation.


Gold $965515 (+0.98%) has a very high share due to its low correlation with other assets. This level will be maintained for at least another six years, as the final installment for our property of around €30,000 will then be due. If the stock markets/Bitcoin/3xGTAA are at a low at that time, the final payment can be covered by the sale of gold alone.


Goals/plans


Without goals, of course, everything is nothing. We would like to pay off our property in the short to medium term (approx. 6 years to go). The amount of the final installment should come from my portfolio. Depending on how the assets are doing, we will sell accordingly. Due to the rather high savings rate, I don't see any risk of not being able to raise 30,000 in 6 years, which is why I won't save this sum in cash. The risk of losing money seems higher to me if the money is not invested for this time. Special repayments are not an issue, as the interest rate is 0.8%.


Once the rather high monthly installments are gone and 1-2 promotions are added (the first one will be next year), the wealth accumulation will really take off. Low costs and high income will be an incredible lever.


In the medium to long term (10 years+), the portfolio will be used to be away from Germany for at least part of the year, preferably in winter. Depending on how things go in Germany, perhaps even longer or permanently. Ideally without having to rely on earned income. In any case, we have already chosen a country for this and have already traveled extensively. We haven't yet decided whether we want to buy one (or more) properties there, but there are many indications that we will.

Basically, there is no target amount that I am chasing, the aim is to accumulate as much wealth as possible over the next few years with a fixed strategy in order to become as independent as possible.


Thank you for all the great contributions over the last 5 years, many of them have helped me a lot, made me think and research and ultimately turned a clueless beginner into a slightly less clueless beginner. And if you like: please roast my portfolio :)

7Positions
23.64%
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20 Comments

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I think your portfolio is great! Uncorrelated asset classes and strategies in a number and weighting that seems to make sense. You've really learned a lot here on Getquin. 👍

One question: What is the principle of your weighting? Max Sharpe ratio? Max Min Drawdown? Inverse vola? This is where strategy could possibly come in.
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That is perhaps the only "problem" I have with my portfolio. The weighting is based more on intuition than on fixed principles.
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@Psychedelic_Sunflower And? Do you want to go there? You have largely freed yourself from intuition when it comes to asset classes.
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How would you go about it? The first question is, of course, what I want. The answer here is: the highest possible return from the existing strategy and asset mix in 15 years. A certain amount of volatility is acceptable with a corresponding return, but in 6 years €30,000 should ideally be liquidated with a worthwhile profit. Preferably gold or Bitcoin, as they are tax-free.
What key figures would you pay attention to here?
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@Epi Once again, the need for an article on how best to weight individual strategies and assets is evident here o.o
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@Psychedelic_Sunflower Basically, with the "maximum return" target, you naturally hold 100% of the asset from which you expect the highest return. However, there are risks, and the return can be seen as a risk premium: BTC can go to 0, gold can be banned, momentum effect can disappear, global economy can plunge into a decade-long crisis. So you try to find the optimum balance between risk and return for the allocation of asset classes. This can be found using Markowitz Optimization: minimum variance or Max Sharpe Ratio. The latter is more likely to be an option for you: the best risk/return ratio. Google that. I'll try to explain the whole thing in the next 3xGTAA update.
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@Epi just. As I am not clairvoyant, I spread the risk. If I go purely by the Sharpe ratio, I would have to go 100% into 3xGTAA (if the figure of 1.4 on Wikifolio is correct) ACWI, gold and Bitcoin are all below 1 in the long term
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@Psychedelic_Sunflower Almost 😉
By mixing asset classes, the expected return decreases, but the SR increases. There is an optimum.
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Are there any practical tools to calculate this? I couldn't let the calculation go back very far because of BTC and your certificate🤔
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@Psychedelic_Sunflower I don't know any tools other than the ones I created with the AI. But I think there is something like that on the net. 🤷
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I like the depot very much 👍
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Looks really solid - it's just a shame that you want to do without individual shares completely - there's a solution for every problem ;-)
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@Krush82 Yes, stock picking was fun. But I have realized that I lack the talent/knowledge and especially the necessary time. And I don't like relying on luck either.
@Psychedelic_Sunflower absolutely the right decision, as a long-term investor you will perform better than 99% of investors 🤑
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@Psychedelic_Sunflower A similar approach to 3xGTAA also works here, which makes successful investing in individual stocks possible without a lot of time, luck and talent
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That may be the case and I wish everyone who implements it every success. However, I like the GTAA model better as a momentum share due to the asset diversification. In addition, the tax advantage of the Wikifolio certificate is enormous.
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I remember your posts as very snooty and conceited, I didn't think you'd come up with such a weak depot.
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@Frei OK. What would be a strong portfolio in your opinion?
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Ah well, thanks for the constructive discussion
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