1Wk·

🔎 Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) - Investor Summary & Valuation ⭐ Investment thesis

Strategy is no longer a traditional software company, but a highly focused Bitcoin trust vehicle with an operational software substructure. The share offers a leveraged exposure to the Bitcoin price, combined with a still existing - albeit secondary - BI business.


For investors who believe in the long-term value of Bitcoin, Strategy is one of the purest listed BTC plays.


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Buy - If the following applies


You are convinced that Bitcoin will reach significantly higher prices in the long term (100k+, 200k+).

Strategy can then be supported by:


  • BTC holdings
  • Additional BTC purchases via capital raising
  • Leverage through debt capital
  • Branding as a leading corporate hodler



benefit disproportionately.


You're not buying the software business here - you're buying the Saylor effect + BTC leverage.

If you believe in Bitcoin adoption, you are buying a "Bitcoin on steroids" with Strategy.


🟡

Hold - If you are already invested


If you are already in, it makes sense to hold the position as long as:


  • you accept the high risk
  • you see Strategy as a long-term Bitcoin proxy
  • you can withstand the volatility
  • you understand that capital increases and dilution are part of the model



Hold is suitable for investors who do not want to reduce their BTC exposure, but also do not want to increase it excessively.


🔴

Rethink - If one of these applies


Rethink the entry or existing position if:


  • you are uncomfortable with capital dilution, high debt and volatility
  • you were expecting a classic software investment
  • you don't want a share to be 80-95% dependent on the price of Bitcoin
  • you are planning a conservative portfolio share



Strategy is not a defensive stock, not a dividend stock, not a fundamental play - it is a high-conviction bet on Bitcoin with leverage.


📌

Short summary

$MSTR (-3.1%)
$BTC (-2.13%)
$3350 (-0.98%)
$BMNR (-2.97%)

  • Buy: For Bitcoin convinced, high-risk-high-reward investors.
  • Hold: For already invested BTC bulls.
  • Rethink: For those who expect a stable software company or don't want to live with extreme price swings.
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6 Comments

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The mNAV is interesting for treasury companies - i.e. the premium that is paid over the Bitcoin holdings. In bear phases such as 2022 and also at the moment, it tends to be around 1 or below (i.e. the company is valued lower than the company's Bitcoin holdings), in bull phases there is definitely a multiple of 4 to 5. So you should be able to withstand a degree of volatility, as Bitcoin itself is already somewhat volatile ;-)
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I only see a bottomless pit here. Unfortunately, the opportunity mentioned is probably wishful thinking.
But good luck to all those who are invested.
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@TradingHase let's meet again here later 😉 get back to you at 1000€/share 😆
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@KoenigsRasse I would be delighted for you 👍🏼
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If I want to leverage BTC, I simply buy a leverage certificate. At least that also leverages upwards. 😅
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Microstrategy is really a Joke company
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