1D·

LVMH After Its Quarterly Results – Positive Signs Continue, but Challenges Remain

The events of the past few days surrounding the figures from $MC (-0.76%) have been, above all, a good opportunity for me to take another objective look at my own investment thesis and assess whether the picture has changed.

First, a look at the numbers:

EPS (was not reported separately for Q2 2026). However, if we take the reported consolidated net income for H1 2026 and divide it by the number of outstanding shares, we get an H1 2026 EPS of 11.40 EUR

Revenue (expected): 19.41 billion EUR
Revenue (reported): 19.50 billion EUR

Revenue for the first half of the year totaled €38.6 billion. Organic growth accelerated from 1% in the first quarter to 3% in the second quarter, showing initial signs of an operational improvement.

One of my key watchpoints was the trend in demand in China. While management has not yet given the all-clear on this front, it emphasized that business stabilized in the second quarter. At the same time, the U.S. market in particular performed significantly better than expected. Above all, the sustained high demand from affluent consumers, as well as the momentum surrounding the technology sector and AI, provided a tailwind there. To me, this confirms that $MC (-0.76%) the company continues to benefit from its global footprint and is not solely dependent on a recovery in China.

The performance of the individual business segments was also exciting. The Watches & Jewelry segment once again stood out as particularly positive. Brands such as Tiffany and Bulgari posted double-digit growth. Sephora also continued its successful expansion. The Fashion & Leather Goods division—the most important one for the group—showed an improvement compared to the previous quarter but, overall, fell short of the high expectations of many investors. For me, this division in particular remains the most significant source of uncertainty. As long as there are no signs of a sustained acceleration here, the stock is also likely to struggle to regain its previous valuation premium.

Another point in my pre-earnings post was profitability. Here, too, the company managed to $MC (-0.76%) impressive. Despite the continued challenging market environment, the Group maintained its operating margin at a strong 22.5% and generated free cash flow of €4.1 billion. To me, this demonstrates once again the company’s enormous pricing power and the high quality of its business model.

I also view it positively that management continues to focus on organic brand growth and the long-term strength of its brands, rather than attempting to force growth in the short term through aggressive pricing measures. To me, this underscores the Group’s commitment to quality.

A key new insight for me is that the drivers of growth within the group are currently shifting. While the luxury market as a whole has not yet returned to broad-based growth, individual segments such as jewelry, beauty, and selective retailing are performing significantly more dynamically than the traditional leather goods business. This is likely to remain an important theme in the coming quarters as well.

The figures tend to confirm my investment thesis rather than refute it. Although a major recovery in the luxury market has yet to materialize, the accelerated organic revenue growth, stable margins, and strong free cash flow show that $MC (-0.76%) operations continue to perform at a very high level. In my view, it will remain particularly important in the coming quarters to see whether demand in China continues to improve and whether the Fashion & Leather Goods segment can once again contribute more strongly to growth. At the same time, however, the figures also show that a full recovery of the luxury market is likely to take some time. This is precisely why the coming quarters will be crucial for assessing whether the current positive trends will develop into a sustainable growth trend. My personal assessment therefore remains largely unchanged. I have $MC (-0.76%) still invested, and although I’m currently still in the red, I’ve been able to steadily lower my average cost through my savings plan—which has been running since the end of 2023—as well as several individual purchases. The latest figures give me no reason to question the long-term investment story. In my opinion, they show that $MC (-0.76%) can maintain its high quality and profitability even in a challenging market environment.

https://de.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transkript-lvmh-verzeichnet-solides-wachstum-im-ersten-halbjahr-2026-bei-stabilen-margen-93CH-3581778

~ Not investment advice ~

DividendenPapa

@DividendenPapa

2D·

LVMH Ahead of Its Quarterly Results – Are We Seeing the First Signs of a Recovery in the Luxury Market?

On July 27, $MC (-0.76%) the latest quarterly results. According to the current analyst consensus on Investing.com, the following are expected:

• EPS: €14.95

• Revenue: €19.41 billion

For me, however, the quarterly results will go far beyond these two traditional metrics. The key question will be whether $MC (-0.76%) it can substantiate its long-term investment story. For several quarters now, the market has been focusing primarily on demand trends in China. It remains to be seen whether the recent tentative signs of stabilization will continue to be confirmed and lead to a more sustainable growth trend. Since China remains one of the most important growth markets for the luxury industry, corresponding statements from management are likely to influence the stock price more significantly than minor deviations in revenue or EPS.

I am therefore particularly eager to see the development of organic revenue growth, the operating margin, free cash flow, and the individual business segments. The focus here is primarily on Fashion & Leather Goods, which—with brands such as Louis Vuitton and Dior—is by far the group’s most important division and also its biggest profit driver.

In addition, I will closely monitor developments in China, the U.S., and Europe. Following the first quarter, currency effects and continued subdued demand in the luxury segment weighed particularly heavily on reported revenue. It will now be all the more important to see whether these trends have improved in the second quarter and whether management confirms its outlook.

Another key focus for me will be profitability. $MC (-0.76%) For years, the company has been among the industry leaders in terms of margins. Accordingly, the market will be watching closely to see whether the group can defend its strong pricing power and traditionally robust operating margin despite the more challenging market environment.

I will also be keeping an eye on the performance of the Wines & Spirits division. Hennessy, in particular, has recently suffered from weaker demand and trade policy uncertainties.

In addition, any statements regarding the impact of international trade conflicts and tariffs are likely to be closely monitored.

The issue of capital returns also remains an area of interest. $MC (-0.76%) The company traditionally pursues a very shareholder-friendly policy with a steadily growing dividend. However, large-scale share buyback programs are not currently a priority. Instead, management is likely to continue focusing on investments in its own brands, selective acquisitions, and the long-term expansion of the business. In my view, this capital allocation fits perfectly with the business model of a global luxury conglomerate.

Analysts also remain largely positive. According to Investing.com, 17 analysts currently recommend buying the stock, 9 rate it as “Hold,” and there are currently no “Sell” recommendations. The average price target of around €577 is significantly above the current share price. Precisely because many analysts remain optimistic in the long term, the market is likely to react less to a slight beat in revenue or EPS than to management’s statements regarding demand trends in China, margin trends, and the outlook going forward.

My key points to watch for the quarterly results:

• Performance of the Fashion & Leather Goods division

• Demand trends in China, the U.S., and Europe

• Organic revenue growth and operating margin

• Performance of the Wines & Spirits division

• Comments on the future outlook and consumer sentiment

• Free cash flow and capital allocation

Personally, I expect a solid quarter, even though the market environment for luxury goods remains challenging. The key factor for me will be whether $MC (-0.76%) can demonstrate early signs of a sustainable recovery in demand while simultaneously maintaining its exceptional profitability. It is precisely this combination that has $MC (-0.76%) has made it one of Europe’s highest-quality companies in my view for years. $MC (-0.76%) is already part of my portfolio. Especially following the significant price correction of the past few months, I now view the valuation as considerably more attractive than it was just a few years ago. The upcoming quarterly results will therefore be a key factor in assessing whether the fundamental investment story continues to hold true.

~ Not investment advice ~