2Yrยท

๐—˜๐—ฆ ๐—œ๐—ฆ๐—ง ๐—”๐—Ÿ๐—Ÿ๐—˜๐—ฆ ๐—˜๐—œ๐—ก๐—š๐—˜๐—ฃ๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—œ๐—ฆ๐—ง

/ Just because Coke tastes good doesn't mean you have to buy the stock



My professor explained something interesting yesterday, I have to briefly record his words and make sense of them.


๐™„ ) ๐˜ฝ๐™š๐™ž๐™จ๐™ฅ๐™ž๐™š๐™ก๐™š๐™ก๐™š for beginner purchases

๐™„๐™„ ) ๐™’๐™–๐™จ ๐™จ๐™ค๐™ก๐™ก๐™ฉ๐™š ๐™ข๐™–๐™ฃ ๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ฉ๐™™๐™š๐™จ๐™จ๐™š๐™ฃ ๐™ˆ๐™„๐™‰๐˜ฟ๐™€๐™Ž๐™๐™€๐™‰๐™Ž ๐™ฉ๐™ช๐™ฃ

๐™„๐™„๐™„๐™„) ๐™•๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™–๐™ฉ ๐™ข๐™š๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™š๐™จ ๐™‹๐™ง๐™ค๐™›๐™จ (Chair of Strategic Management)



tldr: Skippt to III)




๐—œ) ๐—•๐—ฒ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฝ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฒ


"๐˜๐˜ค๐˜ฉ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ท๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜Š๐˜ฐ๐˜ญ๐˜ข convinced ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฌ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ด๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ต ๐˜‘๐˜ข๐˜ฉ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ข๐˜ถ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ regularly ๐˜œ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜—๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฅ๐˜ถ๐˜ฌ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ, ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฉ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฉ ๐˜ซ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต๐˜ป๐˜ต ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฉ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ข๐˜ป๐˜ถ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ด๐˜ค๐˜ฉ๐˜ญ๐˜ฐ๐˜ด๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ณ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ช๐˜ฆ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฌ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฆ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ด ๐˜‹๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ป๐˜ถ ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐Ÿ˜Š"


"๐˜๐˜ค๐˜ฉ ๐˜ง๐˜ข๐˜ฉ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ต 3 ๐˜‘๐˜ข๐˜ฉ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜›๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ญ๐˜ข ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜จ๐˜ญ๐˜ข๐˜ถ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ฉ๐˜ณ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ข๐˜ด ๐˜’๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ป๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ต ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข, ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฉ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ณ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ฆ ๐˜—๐˜ฐ๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ข๐˜ถ๐˜ง๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ถ๐˜ต."


A year ago, the WAZ even wrote:

"๐˜๐˜ˆ๐˜ˆ๐˜•๐˜Ž, ๐˜ฅ๐˜ช๐˜ฆ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฌ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ก๐˜ถ๐˜ฌ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ง๐˜ต". Dead sure thing, what could happen with Facebook, Amazon, Netflix etc.?


Information leading to purchasing decisions

(based on statistical bullshit, see https://app.getquin.com/activity/GDlzIDdeHe ) is apparently not only available on Instagram, where you can unfortunately often read "buy stocks you know first".

(NO, if you have no idea and no interest in learning, buying ANYTHING is more likely to lead to high losses, diversified funds or ETFs make more sense in the long term in this case)


The average investor does not manage to beat the market. So if you buy shares, you want to outperform the market.

If you don't even have the patience for valuation and market analysis, you are underestimating the average market participant and would therefore be better off investing in funds or world ETFs.


To come back to the WAZ example: Yes, FAANG are and were "good" companies.

From a custumer point of view.


BUT

๐—˜๐—ฆ ๐—œ๐—ฆ๐—ง ๐—”๐—Ÿ๐—Ÿ๐—˜๐—ฆ ๐—˜๐—œ๐—ก๐—š๐—˜๐—ฃ๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—œ๐—ฆ๐—ง


! Everything that has happened, has been produced, has been achieved in the present, obvious future and past has already been estimated by institutional providers and thus priced into the price!


All investment theories such as those in the examples above are therefore invalid.

Something like "Amazon has a good market position" is also a pseudo-argument. Even those who can significantly influence the Amazon share price know this.




๐—œ๐—œ) How do I know if it is not only a cool company, but also a ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ป๐˜ƒ๐—ผ๐—น๐—น๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—œ๐—ป๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜?


[Well, actually everything is priced in, we don't have more information than others and therefore everything is overestimation and rationally you are forced to invest passively, BUT...]


There was a good post on valuation here recently by @TheAccountant89
https://app.getquin.com/activity/laOUVhfFDI?lang=de&utm_source=sharing


Otherwise you could at least consider the following:



  • Macro developmentforecast FED, ECB and difference to the priced-in


  • Long-term chart outlook


  • Upcoming Annual General Meetings etc.



(In this sense @sharkace how far along are you with the projections?)




๐—œ๐—œ๐—œ๐—œ) ๐—ญ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ณ๐˜€


"As an investor, you have to keep reminding yourself of one thing. A share value is a number that reflects an entire company. It's not something as easy to understand as profit, turnover or loss, which we can simply explain to ourselves logically; many more things have an influence on this figure that many people don't even know!

So if you think you can play in this game, don't think you will be recognized, don't even think you will be noticed! You are not a player, you are the game! And then you're such a small part of the game that none of the players are interested in your existence."




#learn
#learninvesting
#stockanalysis


https://www.commerzbank.de/portal/de/ratgeber/finanzen/aktienbewertung-so-gehen-sie-vor.html

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@ccf - thanks, this blind 'buy shares of companies whose products you use' really gets on my nerves
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@DonkeyInvestor jop same, I do little by little to the basic things that have not yet been treated posts then always just clap the link purely
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@DonkeyInvestor so should I buy Amazon because I ordered there yesterday or not?
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@tim1 if you have enough money to buy Amazon, you should rather enjoy your twilight years with coke & hookers
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@tim1 does not have to be directly the whole company, braggart
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@DonkeyInvestor that's apparently how Jeff does it ๐Ÿ˜…
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@leveragegrinding maybe @tim1 is Elon's son?
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@DonkeyInvestor Just buy cryptos you know ๐Ÿ˜…๐Ÿ˜˜
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@gamlasvensk I should have done once. Then the UST would have passed me by
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@DonkeyInvestor he wanted to buy all of amazon, if he invests it all in coke and hookers, he dies instantaneously from overdose and pelvic fracture
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@ccf
I've also fallen into this thought from time to time. But in retrospect, it's complete nonsense. And since I don't have that much time for stock research, I have a large part in ETFs. The time I save, I can use to earn more money.
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@tim1 with you anyway I wonder if you can not just take an asset manager without noticing the costs๐Ÿ˜‚ With the batches you "re-buy".
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@leveragegrinding do it all myself. Even with the real estate. Except for the taxes, of course. But whether the managers do it any better remains to be seen ๐Ÿ˜… so I'd rather take the market return and buy the shares for fun.
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@tim1 no one takes better care of their assets than you do ๐Ÿค
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@Howsy89 Exactly. Don't want to be dependent on other decisions. Especially since I wouldn't see paying them that much money.
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@tim1 hmmm ok
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@leveragegrinding With the apartments, it is of course a matter of taste whether it is assigned to an administrator. But as long as the effort is kept within limits, I don't do it. In the case of legal disputes, I like to do it myself anyway or, if I reach my civil law limits, simply let my girlfriend represent me ๐Ÿ˜…
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@tim1 Aaahhh, Couple power๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€
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You're absolutely right! In the retirement home I always booze Heineken beer, but the share comes me not in the depot๐Ÿ˜Š
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See important post, especially for newbies but also people who have been around longer. I think this is a big fundamental mistake that many investors make. @ccf
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Especially in the U.S., the market is very efficient, and the chisel is priced in. But only the most (not quite 100%). In Europe, the market is somewhat less efficient, but also very efficient, but if you look at the EM, you see a relatively inefficient market. A lot of things are not priced in. For this reason, there are also many active funds in these regions that still beat the broad market.
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I wouldn't say everything is priced in, but rather most of it. There is already here and there an edge but as @ShovelStocks already says not with the well-known names. Also with China values that annoys me here. Yes, it is so undervalued and why do not risk-averse hedge funds go in on mass? Also, the pricing never runs efficiently because exaggerations to the top or bottom are not uncommon. It is really a very difficult topic. Gudda contribution Mr. Helm @ccf
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Ultimately, it doesn't matter whether you like a company or not. It's about the profit you make
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Buying shares whose brands you know and like has two advantages in my opinion: 1. as a newcomer to the stock market, you usually have little relation to how the capital market works. Especially with generally popular shares, there is often news that moves the price (Tesla, Microsoft, bmw, etc...) for example, I had put a few Lufthansa shares (strong cyclical) in my portfolio as my first share in 2017. So I was able to gain experience of how strongly the capital market can react to news (eurowings and Niki news at the time). 2. the marketing aspect or the popularity of a brand certainly also has no insignificant influence on the price performance of a share. For example, one notices that Apple is ingenious in creating a lock in effect and thus drawing more customers into its own universe (who then often stay). If this development can be continued in the future, this also has a positive feedback on the future share price development. Overall, however, key figures and factual analyses are probably a more reliable indicator than mere brand enthusiasm. In my opinion, however, it can make sense, especially if you still have little experience, to get to know how the stock market works.
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@Hillbilly887 I see it differently, there are other ways to get to know the stock market than randomly buying shares. And of course if marketing can become an investment thesis, it can help to know the brand, but the other way around is not the same (just because you know or use the brand does not mean the marketing is good). But yes, understand what you meisnt If that is for you
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@leveragegrinding i understand your approach as well. i learned pretty quickly and easily what it means to be a shareholder in a company. of course, i could have read about it, but that wouldn't have been as efficient or as forceful for me. Of course, I could have read up on it, but that would not have been as efficient or as forceful for me. In my opinion, a favorite company investment should not be declared as bullshit across the board. You can't divide it into black and white/good and bad. Almost everything behaves in shades of gray.
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I think the idea is actually quite good but... you assume in your examples that it was the end of the line in each case. So yes, basically a certain future growth is priced in, but that doesn't mean that the company can't grow even stronger or longer.
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@Nati9n I am not saying that it was the end of the line, I am saying that it is a gamble to try to find "the end of the line" based on pseudo-arguments.
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Beating the market with shares is still easier than with gambling โ˜๏ธ
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When people say something is priced in, they are primarily referring to the short and medium-term future. Just as the stock market is a few years ahead of the real economy, so are the share prices of individual companies. However, the market can only price in facts that are already known or, in the case of unknowns, price in the expectation in relation to probability and impact. If, for example, you are convinced that Amazon will at some point completely dominate the global retail trade and that the retail trade will almost die out, then this is not yet priced in because things could turn out very differently. Nevertheless, this would be a bet on the fact that the sizes are getting bigger and bigger, which can pay off.
If I buy Microsoft, for example, because I see a big growth market in gaming and assume that Microsoft will completely dominate it in 10-20 years with subscription models that everyone uses, there is a risk that I am wrong, but with a well-diversified portfolio you can still beat the market with this tactic. You have to get to grips with the companies and not blindly buy what you know, but you can still beat the market with big tech, even though their enormous growth potential is already priced in by the market.
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@EnjoyCapitalism Sure, but the claim that Microsoft will dominate in the next 10 years is based on facts that others also have. But sure, I know what you mean ๐Ÿš€
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@Lorena I told this one user that I would link him here but I didn't remember his name, do u remember?
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@Lorena shitty
Then he's out of luck
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So according to Prof all-in $BLK and $EUNL. Where's the fun in that ๐Ÿ˜ข
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@Howsy89 well, the alternative is intensive research and analysis
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@Howsy89 but probably 10% do here
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@leveragegrinding I've just had a look and both positions together make up around 12% of my portfolio ๐Ÿ˜…๐Ÿคก
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@Howsy89 achso ne :) I meant on getquin probably about 10% of users really do their research before buying
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Hรค I always buy Amazon and Deutsche Post in December because they're bound to go up over Christmas ๐Ÿคก

No, the problem with many people is that they think too highly of themselves or are simply ignorant. If you find/read something on Google or Insta, it's probably already been included in the price for a long time. Of course, you can still buy the share. But you should be aware of that.

And my invoice will come as soon as @getquin finally writes a post and wins the ccf
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@SharkAce that's why the post, it always comes in now when i read something like that
Wait if Nico makes a post that wins ccf you do the math for me?! Awesome
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@leveragegrinding need shortcuts on GQ for posts...

Sure but will never happen ๐Ÿ˜‚
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@SharkAce I made a txt DOcument with contribution links :)
but will happen @getquin ๐Ÿ˜ก
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What are you studying?
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@leveragegrinding BUSINESS STUDIES
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Good point, hardly anyone outperforms the market with individual shares. But for me they are additional motivation, as they are more fun than ETFs. But of course it still works.

It's just the feeling of holding a game piece in your hand. But yes, we don't play along.

With the exception of Gamestop
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@gamlasvensk GME is the counterargument :)
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@leveragegrinding gme and amc were exceptions due to the pandemic. That won't happen again so quickly
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And your 3 steps are not priced in? The only logical conclusion of your post would be passive investment, and not intensive fundamental analysis, that's what the people with all the money did, it's all priced in ;)
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My fantasy is not priced in ๐Ÿ˜„
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@ccf Mashallah this good. Very exciting topic!

This "strategy" can be seen especially with beginners. I would be lying if I said I didn't use this approach at the beginning.
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But Coca Cola!!! I mean ... it's delicious and all. (Funnily enough, my lemonade and cake shares are actually performing at the moment ๐Ÿ˜‰ I think people just like to drink lemonade and eat cake with it, especially in times of crisis) ๐Ÿ˜ฌ
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And what do you want to work as later on? @leveragegrinding
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๐Ÿ‘
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You have individual shares in your portfolio.
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What exactly are you studying?
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