𝗘𝗦 𝗜𝗦𝗧 𝗔𝗟𝗟𝗘𝗦 𝗘𝗜𝗡𝗚𝗘𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗜𝗦𝗧

/ Just because Coke tastes good doesn't mean you have to buy the stock

My professor explained something interesting yesterday, I need to briefly capture his words and wrap them up in a meaningful way.

𝙄 ) 𝘽𝙚𝙞𝙨𝙥𝙞𝙚𝙡𝙚 for beginners buying.

𝙄𝙄 ) 𝙒𝙖𝙨 𝙨𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙩𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙣 𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙙𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙣 𝙈𝙄𝙉𝘿𝙀𝙎𝙏𝙀𝙉𝙎 𝙩𝙪𝙣

𝙄𝙄𝙄) 𝙕𝙞𝙩𝙖𝙩 𝙢𝙚𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨 𝙋𝙧𝙤𝙛𝙨 (Chair of Strategic Business Management)

tldr: skips to III)

𝗜) 𝗕𝗲𝗶𝘀𝗽𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗲

"𝘐𝘤𝘩 𝘣𝘪𝘯 𝘷𝘰𝘯 𝘊𝘰𝘭𝘢 convinced 𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘬𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘪𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘴𝘦𝘪𝘵 𝘑𝘢𝘩𝘳𝘦𝘯 𝘢𝘶𝘤𝘩 regular 𝘜𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘯 𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘳 𝘗𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘬𝘵𝘦, 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘸𝘦𝘨𝘦𝘯 𝘩𝘢𝘣𝘦 𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘮𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘫𝘦𝘵𝘻𝘵 𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘥𝘢𝘻𝘶 𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴𝘤𝘩𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘯 𝘮𝘪𝘳 𝘥𝘪𝘦 𝘈𝘬𝘵𝘪𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘴 𝘋𝘦𝘱𝘰𝘵 𝘻𝘶 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘦𝘯 😊"

"𝘐𝘤𝘩 𝘧𝘢𝘩𝘳𝘦 𝘴𝘦𝘪𝘵 3 𝘑𝘢𝘩𝘳𝘦𝘯 𝘛𝘦𝘴𝘭𝘢 𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘨𝘭𝘢𝘶𝘣𝘦 𝘴𝘦𝘩𝘳 𝘢𝘯 𝘥𝘢𝘴 𝘒𝘰𝘯𝘻𝘦𝘱𝘵 𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘍𝘪𝘳𝘮𝘢, 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘸𝘦𝘨𝘦𝘯 𝘩𝘢𝘣𝘦 𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘮𝘪𝘳 𝘦𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘵𝘦 𝘗𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘢𝘶𝘧𝘨𝘦𝘣𝘢𝘶𝘵."

A year ago, the WAZ even said:

"𝘍𝘈𝘈𝘕𝘎, 𝘥𝘪𝘦 𝘈𝘬𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘯 𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘡𝘶𝘬𝘶𝘯𝘧𝘵". Sure thing, what could happen with Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, etc.?

Information leading to purchase decisions

(based on statistical bullshit, cf. https://app.getquin.com/activity/GDlzIDdeHe ), there is apparently not only on Instagram, where you can unfortunately often read "buy stocks you know first".

(NO, if you have no idea and no interest in learning, buy ANYTHING rather leads to high losses, diversified funds or ETFs are in the long term more sensible in the case).

The average does not manage to beat the market. So if you buy shares, you want to trade above average.

If you don't have the patience for valuation and market analysis, you underestimate the average market participant, so you should better bet on funds or world ETFs.

To come back to the WAZ example: Yes, FAANG are and were "good" companies.

From custumer point of view.

BUT

𝗘𝗦 𝗜𝗦𝗧 𝗔𝗟𝗟𝗘𝗦 𝗘𝗜𝗡𝗚𝗘𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗜𝗦𝗧

! Everything that has happened, been produced, been achieved in the present, obvious future and past, has already been estimated by institutional providers and thus priced into the price!

Thus, all investment theories as in the above examples are invalid.

Also something like "Amazon has a good market position" is a pseudo argument. This is also known by those who can significantly influence the Amazon price.

𝗜𝗜) How do I know if it is not only a cool company, but also a 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗻𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁?

[Well, actually everything is priced in, we don't have more informatioen than others and therefore everything is overestimation and rationally you are forced to invest passively, BUT...]

On valuation there was a good post here the other day from @TheAccountant89
https://app.getquin.com/activity/laOUVhfFDI?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Otherwise one could at least consider the following:

• Macro development, future forecast FED, ECB and difference to the priced in

• Long-term Chart outlook

• Upcoming Annual General Meetings etc.

(In the sense @sharkace how far are you with the projections?)

𝗜𝗜𝗜) 𝗭𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗳𝘀

, "As an investor, you have to keep one thing in mind. A stock value is a number that reflects an entire company. It is not something as easy to understand as profit, sales or loss, which we can easily explain to ourselves logically, many more things have an impact on this number that many do not even know!

So if you think you can play in this game, don't think you will be recognized, don't even think you will be noticed! You are not a player, you are the game! And then such a small part of the game that none of the players care about their existence."

#learn
#learninvesting
#stockanalysis

https://www.commerzbank.de/portal/de/ratgeber/finanzen/aktienbewertung-so-gehen-sie-vor.html

𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐡𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐬 (𝟏)

That will probably make a series about posts that upset me, have an emotional impact on the viewer, which means traffic among the posts for the content creator and false purchase prerequisites for the viewer.

Basically on emotional stats:

https://app.getquin.com/activity/GDlzIDdeHe?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Post:

𝑨𝒃𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒆𝒊𝒏𝒛𝒆𝒍𝒏𝒆𝒓 𝑨𝒌𝒕𝒊𝒆𝒏 𝒛𝒖𝒎 𝑨𝑻𝑯 𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒈𝒍𝒆𝒊𝒄𝒉𝒆𝒏

From a statistical point of view, this is then approximately the level of "physical pain"

When investing in individual stocks, the result, in whatever period, basically fluctuates between -100% and +X%. There are shares that have never returned to the price for which they were listed on the stock exchange. There are companies that do well for 10 years, then still go bust.

In addition, the valuation depends on macro events (e.g. the prime rate).

So what makes no sense at all? Expressing the difference to the ATH in percent and comparing it to other temporary losers. It suggests to the viewer which stocks are "cheap" at the moment, which then appeals to him emotionally ("That's actually a good company, if it's so cheap at the moment it's bound to go down again soon.").

One could compare companies from one industry based on many things. Perhaps the company was the focus of investors at the time of the ATH, but has not been able to present any growth since then? Perhaps the industry's future prospects have worsened? What is the valuation? Cash flow? Business model? Earnings revenue growth?

But no. BaYeR iS 60% oF AtH eNtFeRnT aNd VW nUr 45

Not even a substantive comparison with other companies from such different industries would make sense.

(Funnily enough, the same finfluencers still hold the opinion that buying individual stocks at the ATH makes total sense, which means that a buy recommendation based on distances from the ATH should be complete bullshit even according to their own interpretation).

🤡It is best to provide the whole thing with comments such as "bought", so that it really looks for every beginner as if you prefer these shares, because they have such a distance to the ATH. That these particular shares are bought for completely different reasons is logical, but does not arise from these posts.

🤡🤡Then of course write under it "No investment advice", may legally work halfway, but is moral trash. Stock market newcomers see the post, maybe even research the company, but can understand a valuation as good as not, HOWEVER.

[if you have seen trashposts put them in the comments]

#learn
#learninvesting
#finfluencertrash
#psychologyinfinance

+++ Docu: Risky bets on falling prices +++

(from the series: Are you watching...!) 📺

On ARTE yesterday was released a new financial documentary.

In the series Planet Finance, this time the

Topic of this episode: Shortsellers and short carriers!

So if you are interested in this "strange" strategy on the stock market and want to get to know the protagonists behind it, you should definitely watch this film.

Title: Risky bets on falling prices.

#shortseller
#shorts
#doku
#learninvesting

https://youtu.be/OQs002ihFUA