Economy on 27.03.2023...

Volatil as f.uck or comes now slowly calm purely?⤵️

As all could read yes also at the weekend, says Dirk Mueller, that it goes now only correctly loose. A bank after the other gets now difficulties and and. Well we know Dirk yes all....

For me now begin 2 weeks of vacation (compulsory vacation, have this year still far more than 50 days, which I must take) and I will deal with it in this time times a little more. Above all I want to question my investment in $WFC
Wells Fargo a little bit and read through here a little bit. I started investing in the bank where it was marked with scandals and is in restructuring. Only because of that I am despite high price loss, still in the plus and look at it quite relaxed.

I will hold back the week but generally still with purchases and look at me once more, what the market is doing so. Cryptos are currently still quite stable and here I also let my savings plan continue to run. Also this week there will be again some numbers. What exactly, you can see in the picture below this post.

But now first to this day today:

Economic data

10:00

• DE: ifo Business Climate Index March
• EU: ECB, Money Supply M3 and Lending February

11:00

• DE: PK VDMA large-scale plant engineering

No time stated:

• DE/Verdi and Eisenbahn- sowie Verkehrsgewerkschaft (EVG), presumably nationwide warning strike in the transport sector.
• DE/Galeria Karstadt Kaufhof, creditors' meeting with decision on continuation of the company
• DE/Continuation of collective bargaining for federal and municipal public sector employees in Potsdam (until March 29)

Quarterly figures / Corporate dates Europe

07:00 Wienerberger AG, detailed annual results

07:00 Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG, detailed annual results and annual report

07:30 Salzgitter AG, annual results (09:00 BI-PK)

07:30 Aurelius Equity Opportunities SE & Co KGaA, detailed annual results

07:30 SNP Schneider Neureither & Partner SE, 1Q results

09:00 ENBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG, detailed annual results (10:30 BI-PK; 15:00 analyst conference)

10:00 Nordex SE, Extraordinary General Meeting to pass resolution on the conversion of shareholder loans into equity

12:00 Biontech SE, annual results (14:00 analysts' conference)

No time stated: DE/Commerzbank AG, Annual Report, DE/Hypoport SE, Annual Report

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Economy on 17.03.2023...

Witches Sabbath+index changes. Today it goes around ⤵️

Yesterday the ECB delivered what the market expected. Did not find the market so good :D....

The next bank was taken jobs. The First Republic Bank, but here was immediately offered by JPM and Co help, so that everything has calmed down very quickly. It is currently wild times and it can also pull down other banks or financial companies with. But in general, I don't think we have a long-term problem here. Banks are being wound up, help is being offered, interest rates are now rising more slowly and the market is calming down again and forgetting quickly.

The FED will then set the course, so to speak. I can not imagine that now 0.5% is raised, but I also do not think that it will be a 0 number. It will certainly be the 0.25%.

Remember that today the:

Eurex, Great Expiration Day (Hexensabbat) for stock index options and futures, is!

Markets/Following index changes will take effect after close of trading:

DAX ACCEPTANCE:

Rheinmetall

DAX EXCEPTION:

Fresenius Medical Care

MDAX CALL:

Fresenius Medical Care, Hensoldt, Jenoptik

MDAX EXCEPTIONS:

Rheinmetall, Software AG, Verbio

TecDAX EXCEPTION:'

Eckert & Ziegler

TecDAX EXHIBIT:

Varta

SDAX ACCEPTANCE:

Software AG, Verbio, Wüstenrot & Württembergische

SDAX EXCEPTION:

Cropenergies, Hensoldt, Jenoptik

Economic data (abbreviated version)

08:00

• DE: Building permits January | Insolvencies December and trend indicator for February

11:00

• EU: Labor costs 4Q
• EU: Consumer Prices February Eurozone PROGNOSE: +0.8% yoy/+8.5% yoy Previous estimate: +0.8% yoy/+8.5% yoy Previous: -0.2% yoy/+8.6% yoy Core rate PROGNOSE: +0.8% yoy/+5.6% yoy Previous estimate: +0.8% yoy/+5.6% yoy Previous: -0.8% yoy/+5.3% yoy

12:00

• FR: OECD, publication of economic outlook update
• DE: Futures and options expiration STOXX family (Eurex)

13:00

• DE: Expiration DAX futures and options (Eurex)
• DE: Expiration TecDAX futures and options (Eurex)

14:15

• US: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization February Industrial Production PROGNOSE: 0.0% yoy previous: 0.0% yoy Capacity utilization PROGNOSE: 78.3% previous: 78.3%

15:00

• US: Index of Leading Indicators February PROGNOSE: -0.4% yoy previous: -0.3% yoy
• US: Index Consumer Sentiment Uni Michigan (1st survey) March PROGNOSIS: 67.0 previous: 67.0

17:20

• DE: Expiration SMI future (Eurex)

17:30

• DE: Expiration stock options (Eurex)

21:15

• US: Expiration e-mini Nasdaq future | e-mini S&P future

Without time specifications:

• TR: Announcement of Turkey's decision to join Nato Finland.
• EU: Rating review for:

Belarus (S&P); Belgium (S&P);

Greece (Moody's); Croatia (S&P);

Luxembourg (Moody's); Saxony-Anhalt (S&P);

Saudi Arabia (Moody's); Saudi Arabia (S&P);

Spain (S&P); Turkey (Fitch).

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:30 Bechtle | Vonovia annual results

08:00 Deutsche Bank Annual Report

09:30 Vonovia BI-PK (2 p.m. analyst conference)

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Economy on 21.03.2023...

The market moves cautiously to the FED decision ⤵️

Yesterday, the market started with great caution and then recovered at the close of trading, strong. The DAX is even climbing back above 15,000 points. The crypto sector is benefiting the most from the "bank death". Yesterday, the First Republic Bank was again put in focus, which announced last Thursday that it has problems. This was now saved by JP Morgan and Co. with their own capital. Nevertheless, further hard measures are taken internally to bring the bank back on course. This has given the course first :)

Bitcoin is running towards $30,000, which would again be a very prominent point and a strong bullish signal.

The German market is currently not so much affected and is strongly opposed. I assume that the stock market will soon forget the whole spectacle. In the end, the capital must be in the market. This will be sometimes more and sometimes less, sometimes more risky and sometimes less. There will always be profit-taking and reallocations. Currently, a lot has again flowed into the solid tech stocks.

Excitingly, the market now awaits the decision of the Fed. This will again be directional. And I believe that much more important will be what is said for the future. Because currently I think no one expects more 50 basis points. It will be the expected 25 basis points or, with all surprise, a zero number. But both would be rather positive, after the 50 basis points were initially priced in. Much more important is what the FED plans to do in the future. It remains exciting.

Today, the following dates are scheduled:

Japan stock market holiday

Economic data

08:00

• EU: Acea, new car registrations, February
• DE: Leading indicator foreign trade on exports to non-EU countries
• DE: Producer prices for services 4Q and year 2022
• DE: Turnover in hotels and restaurants January 08:00 CH: Trade balance February

09:30

• LU: Court of Justice of the European Union, ruling in Mercedes-Benz Group case (liability of manufacturers of vehicles with defeat devices/thermo window usage credit)

11:00

• DE: ZEW-Index Economic Sentiment March PROGNOSIS: 17.8 points previously: 28.1 points Economic situation PROGNOSIS: -44.0 points previously: -45.1 points

13:30

• CH: Panel on digital central bank money at BIS Innovation Summit, participation of ECB President Lagarde and ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau, among others.

14:30

• EU: ECB Director Panetta, hearing in EP's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee on Banking Supervision 2022.

15:00

• US: Existing home sales February PROGNOSIS: +4.0% yoy previous: -0.7% yoy

16:30

• EU: ECB banking supervision chief Enria and Eba chief Campa, EP Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee hearing on the consequences of the SVB insolvency and the impact on financial stability in Europe

21:30

• US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from private American Petroleum Institute (API) No time:- EU: General Affairs Council.

Quarterly figures / corporate dates USA / Asia

21:15 Nike quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / corporate dates Europe

07:00 RWE | Hella | Amadeus Fire Annual Results

07:30 Pfeiffer Vacuum Annual Results

08:00 Kingfisher Annual Results

18:00 Deutsche Euroshop Annual Results

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#fed
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#bitcoin
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#ezb
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#vonovia
#varta
#hexensabbat
#dax
#creditsuisses
#firstrepublicbank
#jpmorgan
#ezb
#banken
#schweiz
#ubs
#übernahme
#nike

Economy on 20.03.2023...

Whew, what events on the weekends. More ⤵️

I'm not going to go that deep into it, because I think there will be some posts on that here today. Let's start with the end of the week. Until Thursday we had a phenomenal week... but then....

It came the next bank in the wanken. First Republic Bank. JP Morgan and Co. have decided to save the bank with their own funds. This was of course very well received by the market. Vonovia lowers the dividend and prices in the risk of "revaluation". In return, the company wants to build up reserves and is therefore halving the dividend. From my point of view, the step is necessary and even if it sets me back as a shareholder for the time being, the step will be the right one in the long term.

Now there were the first takeover rumors for Credit Suisse over the weekend. The first offer of UBS was rejected by CS. It committed a complete thriller. One wanted a deal absolutely until the opening of the stock exchanges on Monday. Now a deal stands, which is also very welcome by the FED and ECB. In addition, there is still proper state aid in Switzerland. It will hurt the shareholders but even more the holders of the bonds or ADRs?

I hope that you generally pay attention to always be well diversified. Then one puts such losses also times away. Also with me is in recent days the Wells Fargo and also the Vonovia, so eingekracht, that it is of course stupid, but it can be endured. I am curious what the market does this week. My weekly crypto savings plan on BTC and ETH currently loads well, Will now exciting what happens with it, after the FED this week finally discloses your decision. What is the market currently pricing in here? Rather the zero round or the expected 25 basis points? I think that the 50 basis points are rather off the table. Of course, that had not prevented the ECB, but that is also a different situation. I am curious, continue to build up cash and then strike again targeted.

Economic data

08:00

• DE: Producer prices February PROGNOSIS: -0.4% yoy/+15.2% yoy previous: -1.0% yoy/+17.8% yoy
  
• DE: Order books and order coverage manufacturing industry January

10:00

• DE: German Ethics Council, Pk on statement "Man and Machine - Challenges posed by Artificial Intelligence", Berlin

11:00

• EU: Trade Balance January

12:00

• DE: Bundesbank, Monthly Report

15:00

• BE: ECB President Lagarde, Hearing in the EP's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee

16:00

• FR: Parliament debates motion of no confidence against government over controversial pension reform

17:00

• BE: ESRB Chair Lagarde, hearing in EP's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee

20:15

• DE: Chancellor Scholz, participation in Ständehaus meeting of the Rheinische Post, Düsseldorf

No time specified:

• EU: conclusion of two-day meeting of foreign ministers
• RU: China's President Xi Jinping to hold talks with President Putin in Moscow (until 22.3)

Markets/Following index changes to take effect at start of trading:

DAX UPDATE:

• Rheinmetall

DAX EXCEPTION:

• Fresenius Medical Care

MDAX CALL:

• Fresenius Medical Care, Hensoldt, Jenoptik

MDAX EXCERPT:

• Rheinmetall, Software AG, Verbio

TecDAX NOTICE:

• Eckert & Ziegler

TecDAX OUTPUT:

• Varta

SDAX ADOPTION:

• Software AG, Verbio, Wüstenrot & Württembergische

SDAX EXCERPT:

• Cropenergies, Hensoldt, Jenoptik

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Eni 0.22 EUR

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Julius Baer Group Annual Report

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#ubs
#übernahme

Economy on 23.03.2023...

The Day after Tomorrow. The FED does not surprise ⤵️

Yesterday evening, at 7 p.m., the time had finally come. The FED stepped in front of the screens and delivered your decision on the upcoming rate hikes. As surely now all have read several times, these were raised by 0.25% and that was completely in line with expectations. The market reacted less positively to this message. I suspect but rather that it was more about the statements than about the increase itself. The FED is also hinting at continuing to crack down on inflation. "Most banks can handle our increases," Powell said. But again, in the sub-sentence, "We'll stop when we're done." Fighting inflation remains the top priority. Recently, this fell very slightly to 6% and the goal will continue to be to get below 2%. There was also talk of a pause in the increases, but the Council had opposed this. That would have been the "surprise" scenario. The key interest rate is now at 5%....

The markets have reacted negatively to it for now. In my opinion, there was nothing new or a surprise of a negative nature in any of the statements. But alone that the interest rates were raised, triggers probably already 2-3% minus. We'll see if it goes down a bit further today or if the market quickly catches again.

Also the crypto slipped yesterday up to 6% with in the deep. Higher interest rates often means that the risk assets are dissolved first. Dadrunter counts of course Bitcoin and Co. But from my point of view, this will not cause long-term damage. I am very curious how we go out of this week. I will continue to lie in wait for a few days. Cash I have already built up in the portfolio. Would like some of my values Nachkaufen and also see some opportunities for it. But I let the market first take a breath. But in April I plan then the next purchases.

What will still be going on today:

Economic data (abbreviated version)

09:30

• CH: Swiss National Bank (SNB), outcome of Monetary Policy Council meeting Key interest rate. PROGNOSED: 1.50% previously: 1.00% Deposit rate

10:50

• EU: ECB, allotment of 7-day dollar tender

11:20

• DE: Federal Minister of Economics Habeck, President of the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) Heegewaldt, PK on further developments in the field of offshore wind energy, Hamburg

11:30

• EU: Summit of Heads of State and Government, Brussels (until 24.3.)

12:00

• TR: Central Bank of Turkey, outcome of Monetary Policy Council meeting.

12:30

• DE: Federal Minister of Finance Lindner, Federal Minister of Education Stark-Watzinger, discussion at launch event "Aufbruch finanzielle Bildung", Berlin

13:00

• DE: Verdi and Eisenbahn- und Verkehrsgewerkschaft (EVG), joint PK on the respective current collective bargaining negotiations
• UK: BoE, Outcome and Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council Bank Rate Meeting PROGNOSIS: 4.25% previously: 4.00%

13:30

• US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) February
• US: Initial jobless claims (week) PROGNOSIS: 198,000 previously: 192,000
• US: Current account 4Q

15:00

• US: New home sales February PROGNOSIS: -3.0% yoy previous: +7.2% yoy

16:00

• EU: Consumer Confidence Index Eurozone (preliminary estimate) March PROGNOSIS: -18.3 previously: -19.0
  

18:00

• DE: Federal Minister of Finance Lindner, speech at Startup Association Townhall Discussion, Berlin.

No time stated:

• US: Tiktok CEO Shou Zi Chew subpoenaed in US Congress.

Quarterly figures / corporate dates Europe

06:45 Meyer Burger annual results

07:00 Heidelbergcement | Knorr-Bremse | Nemetschek

07:00 Krones | Vitesco | Zur Rose Annual Results

07:00 Hornbach Trading Statement

07:30 Befesa | CTS Eventim | Scout24 | Hamburger Hafen

07:30 Indus Holding Annual Results

07:40 SGL Carbon | Zeal Network Annual Results

07:55 PVA TePla Annual Results

08:00 LPKF Laser Annual Results

09:30 Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles Annual Results

10:00 Porsche Automobil Holding Annual Results

10:00 KSB SE Annual Results-Pk

11:00 Biotest Annual Results

12:30 Hellofresh Capital Markets Day

13:00 Suse AGM

17:50 Pirelli Annual Results

18:10 Patrizia Annual Results

No time stated: Fresenius SE Annual Report

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#ubs

Economy on 24.03.2023...

Off we go towards the weekend!⤵️

This has been another very eventful week. There were further problems with the banks, the FED interest rate report has been published and there was a new shortseller report about Block (ex Square), which says that a large part of the users should be wrong and the stock is actually worth much less. Block wants to take legal action on this and currently denies these allegations. I suspect that Paypal was also pulled down a bit yesterday because of this. This discount seems to me currently but to be completely unfounded. But is often because the values, which operate similar or the same business, are pulled with, no matter in what direction.

The quarterly season we have now slowly through but it is not so long until the next starts and we can look into the books of the first quarter of 2023. As we all know, the stock market mainly trades the future. In this currently very boring market, people are not only looking for ten-baggers, but generally for companies that can be bought cheaply now and have a lot of potential for the future. It is not so important which figures they currently deliver, but much more important in which promising market they are active, which growth they are aiming for and which opportunities exist there. You could see this again very well at Nvidia. Nvidia's keynote was primarily used to illustrate their visions for the future. The chip sector in particular is encroaching everywhere. Digitalization and so on, needs chips and as we have seen in the current situation, a shortage can quickly arise here. Especially in the medical sector, you can find one or the other exciting future version.

I will do this on Sunday times a contribution and hope that some times your ideas there with share and perhaps also a company to call. So we can use this boring time at the stock exchange also times meaningfully.

I will currently continue to stand on the sidelines and look at the market in the next week only once further. Next purchases are then planned only in April.

Today, we still expect many numbers:

Economic data

00:30

• JP: Consumer Prices February

08:00

• DE: Construction, new orders and sales January

09:15

• FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (1st release) March PROGNOSIS: 52.5 previously: 53.1
• FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing industry (1st release) March PROGNOSIS: 48.1 previously: 47.4

09:30

• DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing industry (1st release) March PROGNOSIS: 47.0 previously: 46.3
• DE: Purchasing managers' index/PMI non-manufacturing sector (1st release) March PROGNOSIS: 51.0 previously: 50.9 Purchasing managers' index, total (1st release)
  PROGNOSIS: 51.2 previously: 50.7

10:00

• EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing Eurozone (1st release) March PROGNOSIS: 52.5 previously: 52.7
  
• EU: Purchasing managers' index/PMI manufacturing eurozone (1st release) March PROGNOSIS: 49.0 previously: 48.5 Purchasing managers' index, total (1st release)
  PROGNOSIS: 51.9 previously: 52.0

10:30

• UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (1st release) March PROGNOSIS: 52.6 previously: 53.0
• UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing (1st release) March PROGNOSE: 49.5 previously: 49.2

13:30

• US: New orders for durable goods February PROGNOSIS: +0.3% yoy previous: -4.5% yoy

14:45

• US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Service (1st release) March PROGNOSIS: 50.3 previously: 50.6
• US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (1st release) March PROGNOSIS: 47.0 previously: 47.3

15:00

• BE: Business Climate Index March PROGNOSIS: -13.0 points previously: -12.8 points

Without time data:

• EU: rating review for Albania (S&P); Germany (S&P); Estonia (Moody's); Malta (Fitch); Poland (Moody's); Romania (Fitch)

Quarterly Figures / Corporate Dates Europe

08:00 Secunet annual results

15:00 Bayer: Bayer Pharma Media Day

No time stated: Compugroup Medical | Deutsche Wohnen | Freenet Annual Results | Indus Holding Capital Markets Day

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