iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Forum

Why is the market not afraid of the Powell speech?

Sure, the inflation data came in pretty much in line with expectations, maybe a tad above. But I see Powell being rhetorically hawkish today. The "red wave" has sparked a lot of euphoria, and Trump may make the Fed more restrictive than under Harris. Asset inflation has been quite high this year, which should now slowly (with a delay of 6-18 months) feed through to core inflation. The betting markets currently see an 82% probability of a rate cut in December - but wouldn't today be an opportunity for Powell to slowly steer the market towards caution?

What's your take on this, is this really relevant at all at the moment or am I completely wrong?

$TSLA (-6.45%)
$MC (+1.76%)
$NVDA (+0.48%)
$ASML (+4.18%)
$PLTR (+0.41%)
$BTC (-1.45%)
$ETH (-2.53%)
$VIX
$SPY (-0.29%)
$TLT
$TIP (+0.34%)

Good day.

I am now publishing my portfolio for the second time, a few things have changed. I am 19 years old and started investing in October last year. I was a student until july this year and have been working since august. That's why I can invest 500 per month. From January I have to go into the military, from then on I will earn correspondingly less for the first 124 days, the remaining 176 days it will be gross about as much as now net. I'll see how much I can invest during this time. I sold my core position $VWRL (-0.08%) I have sold in order to shift the money into the $TLT to shift the money into the The idea behind this is that if interest rates fall with a recession, I will still make a profit. The overall loss is actually higher than with getquin due to many mistakes made by beginners such as selling small bad investments with too high fees.

I look forward to your assessment and opinion on my portfolio.

Have a good trading day

Good morning (-:

I would like to start a discussion about the $TLT because I don't think I have understood the principle behind it yet. In simple terms: this is an ETF which invests in a part of the 20 year government bonds of the USA.

A few assumptions:

• if the interest rate continues to rise in the USA, will the price of the ETF fall because the "old government bonds" are not as attractive as the new ones?
• what happens if the interest rate stays the same, the price should not fluctuate much, except when the stock market weakens and bonds become more attractive?
• if the interest rate goes down, the price should go up because the old bonds have a better yield than the new ones? Equally, however, stocks become more attractive again and compete?
• the ETF itself has a payout rate of currently between 3-4%, when is that paid out (semi-annually, in January?) - does the price then fall accordingly - the chart does not look that way

Looking forward to the discussion.

Kind regards