Costco Wholesale is one of the largest retailers in the USA. Compared to other large retail chains such as Walmart or Target, Costco is characterized by the fact that the company has a special membership model model. Customers can only shop at Costco Wholesale with such a membership. The assortment includes a wide range of products from groceries, household goods, clothing, jewelry and furniture. The majority of Costco's sales, around 73%, are generated in the USA.
Stock king points models for Costco Wholesale
Costco Wholesale scores Dauerläufer-Check 9 out of 10 points. The share scores easily on most key figures. Over the last ten years Costco Wholesale has achieved a return of +21% per year over the last ten years (including dividends) - a figure that is very rare for consumer staples stocks. The maximum drawdown of -46% is Sales have grown by +9% over the last ten years and profits by as much as +13% per year. The stability of sales and profit growth at Costco Wholesale reaches absolute peak values of over 95% in each case.
In the Fundamental-Check and Dividenden-Check Costco Wholesale achieves 6 points each and thus rather average results. Due to the weakness of the last few months Trend-Check only 2 points. However, Costco Wholesale can impress here with a low volatility of only 20% over the last three years.
Endurance check for Costco Wholesale
Chart analysis for Costco Wholesale (daily chart) since 2021
The blue upward trend channel for Costco Wholesale shown in the chart originated in 2009. However, this only serves as a rough guide, as the share has often not marked its respective highs and lows exactly at the respective boundary lines. There has also been a second trend channel for the share since 2019 (yellow). At the beginning of 2025, the share overheated and approached the upper limit of this channel. The subsequent correction was overdue. The share is now trading at the lower limit of this medium-term trend channel at around USD 860.
It is somewhat critical that the support of USD 870 (light blue) is currently slightly undercut. The lows of the last 1.5 years are located here and stabilization at this level would be good. Further support can then be found at around USD 790 (orange). Costco Wholesale must be given some breathing space up to this level. If this price level is reached, the share will also be back in the middle of the long-term trend channel, meaning that the exaggeration from 2023 and 2024 would then be completely eliminated.
Costco Wholesale is currently still struggling on the chart and the downward trend dominates in the short term. Nevertheless, the share is attractive and a buy is possible. At this point in time, however, you need to be patient because a formation of a bottom is not yet recognizable yet. However, as Costco Wholesale is not a falling knife and the correction in recent months has been moderate, the situation here is by no means critical.
Drawdown analysis for Costco Wholesale
Costco Wholesale drawdown over the last 20 years
The drawdown chart for Costco Wholesale shows that the stock share rarely tends to experience larger setbacks than the overall market. At the end of 2016, beginning of 2017 and now in 2025, there were corrections of -15% to -20% at a time when the overall market was at an all-time high. Overall, however, the drawdowns are limited. Costco Wholesale offers a very attractive risk/return profile, especially in combination with a high long-term return.
Historical valuation based on the P/E ratio for Costco Wholesale
P/E ratio of Costco Wholesale in historical comparison
The P/E ratio of Costco Wholesale currently stands at 46which is high for a share from the consumer staples sector. This valuation is also expensive by historical standards. The average P/E ratio over the last ten years is 38, so even after the setback in 2025, the share is anything but cheap. The high stability of the company and the share come at a price.
Analysis of the Costco Wholesale dividend
Development of Costco Wholesale's dividend yield over the last 10 years
Costco Wholesale can convince with a stable and high dividend growth (+14% per year over the last ten years). The dividend yield of 0.6% rather paltry. It is therefore clear that Costco Wholesale unsuitable for a dividend strategy. for a dividend strategy. But even ten years ago, the dividend yield was just over 1%. A low payout ratio of 27% also shows that Costco Wholesale is not exactly pursuing the goal of paying a high dividend.
Conclusion on Costco Wholesale
Costco Wholesale scores a very good 9 out of 10 points in the long-runner check and is also part of the long-runner portfolio. According to the long-runner check, the share is one of the best shares in the consumer staples sector. The company impresses with its high and stable growth, but the valuation is not cheap at a P/E ratio of 46, even after last year's price decline. A buy is possible, but patience may still be required until the long-term upward trend continues.
Personal assessment:
For me, THE strongest consumer staples company in the world. Unfortunately, like so many long-runners, almost always too expensive and never cheap. I am also patiently waiting for a setback here and am aware that this may never come.
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