3D·

Sold ASML and doubled down on UNH

Yesterday, I closed my position in $ASML for a 102% profit. While there might be some room for growth left this year, I’m becoming wary of the massive AI-related capital expenditures. I no longer feel comfortable holding at these levels.

Instead, I rotated those gains into my $UNH position, as a shift from Growth to Value. With the stock down roughly 20% recently, I saw a good entry point at $284. Having held $UNH since it crashed to $250, I view this dip as a good opportunity.

What do you think about this rotation? Is ASML getting too risky, or am I leaving money on the table?

28.01

ASML

Vendido em € 1.279,60

11 Comentários

Nova@Nova_portfolio

It's switching one risk (high valuation but good momentum) for the other (regulatory setbacks, negative sentiment)

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Markus@MarkusF

I think that was a good decision.

I think Long term ASML is and was a compunder, but when the AI bubble pops, it will take a while to regain profits (and it will compress from its 44+ PE down to something high 10s, low 20s).

I personally sold just before XETRA closing the day before earnings with ~85% profit.
And although I left ~9% on the table compared to just after opening next day, I think it was the right decision (shown by the decline during the day).

I will definitely buy back in, but only after the AI dust has settled.
Rolled the profit and original investment over into $KO (conservative value, will not be affected as much by the bubble bursting) and $MA (Which will profit from LLMs, but hasn't fully priced that in yet and isn't part of the circular investment bubble)

With a 20 year background in IT (10 of which developing and maintaining databases) I have watched the hype closely and while it is impressive what it can do, its obvious that people in general are expecting more than it will ever be capable of (meaning the LLM-AIs, not AI Technology that hasn't been invented or even thought of yet).

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Johannes🦅🔥@Johannes001

@MarkusF total dumb if it crash then it will go up again, but you lose due to tax and tax is like an -25% crash which cant go up ever again! 😂 (FOMO)

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Johannes🦅🔥@Johannes001

@MarkusF My Tipp go all in $CSPX and wait till you got your Million due to the compound interest effect

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Markus@MarkusF

14H

@Johannes001 yeah yeah, of course.
Just like people should have kept broadcom and telekom in the 2000s...

And if you think taking an 85% win is like a 25% crash, you should inform yourself how taxes work (or maybe book a math course).

Its more like 12%
Since only 85/185 get taxes at 26.5%.
Meaning ~45% of value gets taxed which comes out to ~12.1%

Your estimation would only hold up at ~1000% profit...

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Markus@MarkusF

14H

@Johannes001 Why would I do that?
Goal is to get out of AI, not intensify the investment - but I do hold significant amounts of MSCI World and MSCI EM index etfs.

Separate pot of money from my individual investments though

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Mikolaj@Volcano

$ASML will be down in first half of this year. I also sold my position, a bit erlier than you. I will buy once again if it drops to around €800

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Johannes🦅🔥@Johannes001

@Volcano 😂😂😂 fomo

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José@Balance_seeker

"The trade-off isn't entirely clear. By entering a more challenging regulatory environment under the Trump administration and shifting from EUR to USD-based operations, it appears you've increased rather than decreased your overall risk exposure."

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fund_whisperer_2147@fund_whisperer_2147

@Balance_seeker But with a 3,4 years vision in UNH and EUR/USD being nearly at 1,20 y thing that risks that you mention “disappear*.
Also I didn’t mention but it’s not that there is less risk in UNH but personally I feel more confortable taking the risk in UNH rather than continuing on ASML.

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José@Balance_seeker

@fund_whisperer_2147 I can see your point and agree to some extent. However, news broke on Tuesday that the Trump administration proposed a below-expected rate increase for 2027 Medicare Advantage plans, which poses a serious threat to UNH's fundamentals and could materially impact revenue.

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