Executive summary for investors: Petrobras & Braskem (July 24, 2025)
Background:
Brazilian billionaire Nelson Tanure plans to indirectly take control of Braskem S.A. through the purchase of NSP Inv. (subsidiary of Novonor S.A.). The antitrust authorities (CADE) have already approved this possible takeover.
Reaction from Petrobras:
Petrobras, itself a co-shareholder of Braskem, is now formally asserting its co-determination rights and applying to join the merger control proceedings as a "third interested party". This is based on the valid shareholders' agreement with Novonor, which grants Petrobras pre-emption rights and tag-along rights in the event of share sales.
Status:
No decision yet on a possible entry or withdrawal. Petrobras is awaiting the reaction of the competition authorities to the application to join.
Classification:
Petrobras could gain strategic time with this step, exert influence on the transaction or keep its own options open - for example to acquire a stake at a later date or prevent a change of control at Braskem that would be unfavorable for Petrobras.
Classification of ChatGPT:
📉 Stock market psychology assessment: Petrobras & Braskem - what's behind it all
1. market impact in the short to medium term:
The news is neutral to slightly positive for the share price because Petrobras is showing a willingness to act.
The market does not like powerlessness - and Petrobras is signaling here: "We will not be ignored."
At the same time, there is no obligation to buy anything - the move is more tactically defensive than offensive.
→ Reaction: No jump in the share price, but a confidence boost among institutional investors.
---
2. possible scenarios from an investor's perspective:
🟢 Best-case:
Petrobras blocks or delays Tanure's takeover, thereby improving its own negotiating position - and possibly acquires Braskem shares itself on better terms.
→ High-dividend joint venture is secured, or Petrobras strengthens its industrial control.
🟡 Neutral case:
Petrobras remains on the outside, but receives a settlement or participation through the contractual clauses - effectively a windfall bonus without commitment.
đź”´ Worst case (unlikely):
Petrobras outbids Tanure for political reasons or due to pressure from the state, pays too much - and burdens the balance sheet for a company (Braskem) that does not fit structurally with the core business.
→ Cash flow risk and political misallocation.