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Good morning dear community!

This morning it's not about new trades or stocks that I want to get into and that are interesting. Today I would like to share my thoughts with you on a topic that is more about the learning process on the stock market and why many people find it so difficult not to implement what is actually logical in reality. I know that there are of course many people here who know everything I write. But one or the other of you may find it interesting and helpful.

So what distinguishes an averagely successful investor from a very successful one?

From my point of view, it can be summarized in one word: DISCIPLINE!!!

To understand this, let me look back a good 25 years to the birth of the Neuer Markt and technology shares. That was my most active time. Compared to what I traded back then, it's a fly in the ointment today. There were days when I lost or gained 40% (the highest daily loss) -60% (the highest daily gain) of my portfolio volume. How does that work? I ask myself the same question today!

But the reason was probably that I lacked something and that was discipline!

Today I always trade according to the motto: Let profits run! Limit losses! You can often read that in my posts.

Back then, especially during the decline of the Neuer Markt, I was quick to take profits, but I kept buying stocks that were down 30, 40 or even 60%, in the firm belief that they would have to rise again.

And to make it easier, especially for those who are not yet so experienced here and are still impressed by the returns sometimes achieved here, internalize this motto. It sounds banal, but it's not that easy to put into practice. I can see this from the fact that I am often asked in the comments on my trades, how long do you want to hold? I'm 30% up, I'm itching to take profits.

The thought process is absolutely understandable. 30% is a lot in a relatively short time, I want to secure that! If you want to do that and are happy with it, you can do it, but on the other hand you also have to say, I'm down 15%, I'm limiting my losses now and looking for the next entry point. Because how else can you achieve a better return than the market? But many people then start the process of buying more and reducing the price of their entry, or even worse, it will go up again, just be patient. Internalize this: A stock that goes down 50% has to double afterwards so that you only get to plus/minus 0. That is not an option for me. I am explicitly not talking about my high-risk derivative trades, where losses up to a total loss can of course occur. But that is factored in.

So my advice is to set a fixed maximum loss target for your purchases!!! If everyone questions themselves and is honest, most people don't have one! I am never asked about this either. You don't need a fixed profit target! What's the point?

Build in a hedge right from the start, at least mentally, e.g. 20% down is acceptable to me. If your investment then moves in the direction you have in mind, you can raise this limit. If a value exceeds your desired profit limit of e.g. 30%, you can raise the hedge up to that point. From my own painful experiences, I can tell you that maintaining discipline downwards is more important than upwards if you want to be successful in the long term.

And make sure that your expectations match the risk you are taking.

I often answer questions in the derivatives area with the answer that I am aiming for 100%. The answer is often that 30% would be enough for me. Honestly, it depends on the risk you are taking. If I choose a derivative with leverage of 10, which is a very high risk, I expect the share to make 10% so that I reach my 100%. If I only want 30%, I don't take a leverage 10 product, I take one with leverage 3 and sleep more soundly because I am taking a fraction of the risk and need the same share performance.

PS: I sleep well even with leverage 20! :-)

If you have any further questions, please feel free to ask. Perhaps it will help one or the other to develop a more successful way of thinking.

Otherwise, I wish you all a successful day, no matter what your plans are.


And have a great weekend! Even if this probably wasn't my last post for today!


Your Chris

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Important thoughts on trading! 🙏

An addition to the central aspect of discipline: In order to adhere to it at all, you need a clear, well-founded PLAN, even BEFORE you buy. What else should you be disciplined about?
Such a plan includes clear exit criteria: SL, short target, return target, etc.
These criteria should be based on well-founded, understandable and tested rules. This is the best way to stick to them when the market escalates.

A thought that also helps: "The market is the same for everyone. Whether you win or lose is entirely up to you." 💪
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Buying in when things go downhill is a good idea for a passive strategy with a world ETF. Probably the best choice for over 90% of investors.
But at the same time you shouldn't get the idea of leaving your money lying around for the next crash.
Thanks @Multibagger for sharing. For many, this may seem obvious. But very few document knowledge and experience and I think in the end it brings you something to write it (well maybe not you for once, you just have brutal experience 😅), it brings me something to read it again and every beginner can benefit and learn a lot from it.
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@Wealth-Accelerator I would still be interested in how you would handle such a discipline if you go into a title via tranches? There is still a knot in my head as to whether it would be good to place further tranches or to sell everything again.
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@Snoopy
I'm the wrong person to talk to.
I don't trust myself to have good timing or a knack for individual stocks. At least as things stand today 😂😂
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@Snoopy That depends very much on why you placed the first tranche? To get a foot in the door? To speculate on a positive event, e.g. approval of a drug, takeover, etc.? In the latter case, of course, you can always pull the ripcord if the event does not materialize.
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@Multibagger Actually always to get a first foot in the door. A good example would have been $ONDS. When they were at €5, I thought about putting in a first tranche, but in the end I didn't because I was hoping for further price setbacks. If I had gone in with a first tranche, I would have been in with at least a small part of my investment. For me, tranches are therefore also a psychological way of not missing the boat completely, but only partially, should the price rush away.
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@Snoopy then it's relatively simple. As long as nothing changes in your fundamental assessment of the company and you are convinced in the long term, you can place further tranches at any time or orientate yourself to technical chart marks. Support zones are currently between $11.50 and $12 at $ONDS. Breaking through new ATHs on a closing price basis always indicates a great deal of momentum.
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@Multibagger How high do you think it will go at the moment? I think a correction is coming soon? I just read that there are also two extremely important events coming up that could cause volatility, right?
On January 14th is the presentation at the Needham Growth Conference. And on January 16 is the big OAS Investor Day. Management will provide details on the business plan and profitability (EBITDA breakeven target H2 2026).
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@schlimmschlimm They will specify profitability in the third quarter.
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A very strong post, Chris, the content of which I already took to heart in the early hours of this morning. I've been in the stock market game since the end of 2023, initially completely relaxed with ETFs. I've had a diversified equity portfolio with a stable core for just under a year now. Inspired by this community - above all by you - I have now added numerous "potential stocks" to my portfolio. The commodities sector is disproportionately represented, but $ONDS, $OMDA and $IREN are also included. I've learned a lot along the way and I think you're talking about the two most important ones (for me) here: Limiting losses and hedging profits. At the beginning, I also let my shares fall sharply into the red with the hope that they would "recover". That no longer happens to me today, I have set appropriate stops. On the other hand, I would also like to hedge returns already achieved in the future. Unfortunately, I didn't take or hedge any profits at $LYC at the peak in mid-October - I'll do things differently in future.

One thing I've learned: don't set stops too tightly, especially if - like me - you take inspiration from Chris and bet on volatile stocks. Yes, this limits losses, but of course a tight stop is also quickly reached...

Thank you for your inspiration, Chris. I follow each of your posts very closely, even if not all of your trades are for me - because they are too risky for me. But it's still valuable for me! I think you posted a derivative on silver yesterday - it was too risky for me, I then decided on a 3x leveraged ETC on silver and am very happy with it.

Many roads lead to Rome. Thanks for sharing your path :-)
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@Lorlen You are very welcome, and as far as the silver trade is concerned, you were definitely right, because mine was stopped out.
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@Multibagger In this case, it may be that the more conservative method was the more successful one. In all likelihood, you will be much more successful in the long term, and I wish you all the best.

This example with the silver trade is also a good illustration of something I have learned: losses are part of the game, regardless of whether you are pursuing a high-end to-the-moon all-in risk strategy, saving for the FTSE World or inflating your money under your pillow. You can never win all the time and you have to be able to cope psychologically with the fact that there are sometimes red percentage figures, which can also be in double figures.

I had to get used to it. Now that I've seen that Alphabett trades 200 leverage with a 0.5% gap to the KO, I'm more relaxed.

These are all experiences that I had to make in order to better regulate the emotions that inevitably arise.
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@Lorlen the alphabet trade would be too hot even for me, and that's saying something.😉😂
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@Multibagger I'll do that one day. Maybe before earnings are due. If it works out, I'll send you and your sweetheart on vacation from the winnings
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@Lorlen I used to do this a lot, but not on individual shares, but on indices. Back then, there were no KO bills on every chip shop to that extent
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Thank you for this great article! I think it's the same for many people and has happened to most of them or happens again and again. I have the following thoughts on the subject of buying more to reduce the purchase price. It can be a good measure. CAN! If everything is still fundamentally in order. Of course, it should be clear to anyone who does something like this that the reason why the price falls is decisive. A good friend of mine never buys in such phases, he always says "I don't buy weakness". For him, falling prices of 50% are often weakness and therefore need to be assessed carefully." Or he also says throw good money after bad. How sensible was it then to push down the EK if you are still 20% under water and the value has not risen for months or longer? Because fundamental conditions have changed. However, if the story is right, you get more shares for less money.
From what I have learned so far, I try to differentiate between the following:
Market-driven decline: If the entire sector (e.g. tech) falls by 30%, but the company is growing, buying more is often rational.
Company-specific decline: If the share price falls because the business model is crumbling (e.g. due to new competition or balance sheet problems), buying more is extremely dangerous.
Another important point, which is totally logical but often forgotten, is that many private investors forget the opportunity costs when "buying at a discount". Even if the share struggles to get back to its purchase price after two years, you have tied up capital during this time that might have generated a 20% or 30% return in another stock.
For example, I have drawn up the following rough checklist, does anyone have any additions?
Cause check: Is the reason for the fall external?
Is the share only falling because the overall market (e.g. the DAX or S&P 500) or the entire sector is correcting?
If only this one share is falling while the market is rising, there is often an internal problem that I may not yet see.
Investment case: Is the original thesis still intact?
Have the fundamentals (sales growth, moat, management) deteriorated since my initial purchase?
If the business model has changed, never buy - no matter how cheap it looks.
Is there no better alternative?
Is buying into this (losing) position really the best use of my money? Or would a new stock with more momentum give me a quicker return?
Will the weighting remain healthy?
Will the position become too large in my overall portfolio by buying more?
I don't want to weight a single position with more than 5% of my total capital in order to protect myself from a total loss.
Has the bottom already formed?
Am I reaching into a falling knife?
It is often wiser to buy in when the price shows the first signs of bottoming out (sideways phase) rather than to cut in free fall.
Note! Unfortunately, this has happened to me too often. ☹ Despite the rule!
That brings us back to the topic! DISCIPLINE!
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You're definitely right. I may not have been in the stock market for 25, 15 or 10 years, but I too have realized how important it is to be disciplined when it comes to investments. Be it in one direction, but also in the other. It is important to act unemotionally and rationally. If a share is down 30-70%, there is a reason for it. Although interim corrections are normal, it is important to admit to yourself that you simply made the wrong decision and simply made the wrong investment. But simply sitting there and HOPING that the share will rise again is pointless. But it also depends on the share. A good example is $QNC. The share was down 80% for me. A good 1 1/2 months later it was up 20%. Why? Because it is a penny stock. But let's not talk about penny stocks or derivatives, but about mid- and large-cap. Stocks, an 80% drop is not without reason. Then, as you have already mentioned, to think "Yes, it will go up again" is weak in my opinion. At this point, you have to ask yourself what else you could have done with the remaining money. Other investments? Use it privately for consumer goods? Instead, just let it run and hope, is sometimes the better decision, but in the rarest of cases.
On the other hand, this also applies to profits. If a share is up 100% or even "only" 30%, you may be richer on paper, but in reality you will only be richer if you sell and take the profit. I often catch myself doing that too. Let's be honest. How often do you buy or sell shares at the perfect time, just before the turnaround? Almost never. So it's okay to take profits from time to time, even if the share still makes its 10-20% afterwards. But I think it's wrong not to sell simply out of FOMO.
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@der_Don Of course you should also take profits from time to time. I do that too. I'd rather take 5x200% than wait years for a tenbagger.
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@Multibagger 180 🤪 (sorry)
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Strong post
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Thank you for your perspective on how you handle this.
You're absolutely right.
As you say, if a trade doesn't work out and you sell in the red, that's better than staying in forever and losing returns.
Simply limit losses and look for a new, better trade.
I personally don't trade derivatives at all and don't have much experience, but I have heard/read a lot from others.
Have a nice weekend too. :)
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@MrSchnitzel I am totally irritated by your new profile picture since yesterday. I always recognize many of the users here with whom I communicate regularly by their profile picture in the overview. When this picture appeared yesterday, I thought, oh, someone new is writing to you. Then I read Mr. Schnitzel and thought to myself, he looked completely different the day before. :-)
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@Multibagger My name remains, that's how you should always recognize me.
The problem is, I need variety or want to try something new and I like a lot of pictures.
My old one was somehow too standard for me.😅😁
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@MrSchnitzel Very nice picture. Is this yours?
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@Nevs1848 Unfortunately not, it's not possible at the moment.
However, I would like to get one in the near future. 😊
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@MrSchnitzel I love old German shepherds. I really like their looks and character. Great dogs😊
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@Nevs1848 I agree. :)
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@Nevs1848 unfortunately very susceptible to hip problems!
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@Multibagger That's true, but most larger dogs have this problem, so you should look to get an animal from a working line, which is less likely to have a sloping back. But even then there is no guarantee.
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Thank you Chris for the very clear and above all wise words. This is a trader with many years of experience who also knows other times. Many here have only been around for 2-3 years and only know the way up, which we have undoubtedly had in recent years (you only need to look at the MSCI World or the S&P over 5-10 years). You can print out everything Chris has formulated here and put it on your desk, you won't find it formulated more concisely and clearly.
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@value_crafter_1628 Thank you for the compliment
@Multibagger Thank you for another very valuable post. I'd say you've definitely got me with this one. I've been investing for over 20 years, but up until 2 years ago I only invested in managed funds. But that's a different topic. I even go a bit further: I find @Epi Wikifolio, for example, so "pleasant" that I don't even have to make the right decision to get out. I still have some time (15 years+) so I wouldn't have the stress of reacting to every fluctuation at the moment. But as paradoxical as it sounds, having a product that is quasi buy+hold with (at least for me) high risk without having to do much for it has an extreme charm for me! I think I will also join @Krush82 when it is active. I could well imagine being >50% in such Wikifolios or similar, 30% "boring" ETFs and a few quality stocks and the rest "play money" for the gambling instinct ^^ But as you can see, especially @Epi here again, I'm still not even at point 1 of a good investor, with a (sensible) strategy. And that after 25 years of investing....... *shame on you*
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@Migu11 I think you did exactly the right thing: you recognized your weakness and found a way to deal with it that made sense to you.

I've also considered investing more in well-managed wikifolios. But somehow that's not my path. I need to understand what I'm investing in and how. And I want to have control over it. That gives me security and discipline even in difficult times. And most wikifolios are relatively opaque in this respect. The wikifolio from @Krush82 is perhaps different. I understand that, and I can imagine investing a fixed proportion of my portfolio there.

As you can see, everyone has to find the path that suits them best. And if the 3xGTAA Wikifolio fits your path, I'm of course delighted. 👍
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@Epi finally SOMEONE understands me :-)
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@Krush82 Don't be so hasty, my dear! I said I understood your strategy. I have accompanied its development. I also understand that your strategy is very well tested, but without clear heuristics that the parameters are also robust for the future. And I understand that you don't have them. But I don't understand why you're not looking for them. So: I understand your strategy, its possibilities and limitations. But that's about it. 😁
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@Epi You're already further ahead with him than you are with me.😂 It's also easier. He has a clear structural approach based on numbers
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@Multibagger Correct. I don't really understand your strategy. But I do understand your mindset. Quasi inverse to @Krush82 😅
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@Epi If you combine the two now, you have the best of both worlds 😂😂😎😎😎
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@Multibagger Exactly: the average Getquin investor. I don't understand the strategy and the mindset. The best of both worlds. 😅
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@Multibagger Thank you for the input - I will ask myself this question again with my investments. Unfortunately, I recognized myself in the description of your post. I'll try to work on that. For my understanding: do you write down these limits for each value/keep them in mind or do you set the limits hard in the order book?
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For me, it's enough if I have them in my head
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Thank you for this lesson. I should probably implement the learning right away and limit this loss 😅 https://ibb.co/kV04yHQP
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@Iwamoto Was that the loss before the announcement or after?
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Thank you dear, it really is a difficult subject. I think it also depends a bit on what kind of investor I am. And which company it is. As a trader, you have the experience, and your approach probably applies 100%. As a long-term investor, I wouldn't see it quite the same way. Here I always have the words of "Heiko Thieme" in my head. You should know him, the younger ones among us probably less so. But he is probably already one of the stock market gurus. His words are "Everyone should have been in the red once with a share in order to be successful with it". There used to be someone here on the portal who bought shares and if they slipped into the red after he bought them, he sold them immediately. His portfolio performance was always top, but when I looked at his realized gains, I got scared. Then I got scared and worried. As you can see, the topic is somewhat broader. One example: with $FEIM Frequency I slipped over 20% into the red after buying it. I then looked at the chart. And checked the fundamental figures again. Everything was consistent, otherwise I wouldn't have bought. The news situation was not negative either. So I bought again. And now, a few weeks later, I'm up over 50 %. We would be happy to discuss this exciting topic further. Or write a joint article about it. 😘
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@Tenbagger2024 I think the discipline thing is common to all trading styles. The focus is perhaps slightly different.
Since I added individual stocks to the ETFs last year, I have noticed this very strongly.
I also have a long-term focus. I find it takes discipline to develop and maintain your style. For me, managing the number of positions and their size in relation to each other also falls under discipline.
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@Isus01010
Oh yes, especially when you keep finding new gems
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Or read about the great pearls you've found :D
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@Tenbagger2024 I gave it a thumbs up, didn't I?
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@Multibagger
Perhaps I was expecting some feedback on my long comment
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@Tenbagger2024 I was a bit busy at work today and had to write something from time to time. But I meant no offense. I'm not offended by any of your posts. There's no reason to be
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Good points. Now, being much wiser than 5-10 years ago, I believe that discipline is the only key factor that makes difference not just in financial markets, but in any type of business. One would say that iscipline is strong tool that signficiantly increases your chance to outperform talent, knowledge and birth given starting points. In the end second grande strategy, if executed well, will in almost all cases outperform top notch strategy that is executed poorly.
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Thank you Chris❤️
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Thank you for this important summary! I've learned a lot of it here in the forum over the last few months, much of it the hard way through my own experience ;) But what you have experienced yourself is better remembered. Perhaps one more point to add: understand what you are investing in. For me at least, this helps enormously in maintaining the necessary discipline and acting more unemotionally.
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@Redfox77 That's why I don't invest in cryptos.😉
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Thank you Chris 🤝
I haven't been in the stock market for long, but I've made exactly these mistakes with individual stocks.
Sometimes -40% and then I thought to myself, I'll just keep buying "CHEAPER". For the time being, my mind was a little calmer again, until I suddenly realized that the share should or must double in order to achieve a return. To be honest, I've always just invested in shares without a plan.
Without a return target, price target, when do I get out, etc.
I've also bought shares and ETF savings plans where someone wrote a few days later, forget the share or ETF and sold everything again. Well, I've learned a few things for myself from that.
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Thanks for your input! It's really important for beginners here in the community.

I ask myself these questions all the time... should I sell the Alphabet position now because it has already done so well or should I hold on to the $DEFI position even though it is currently at -50%?

Questions upon questions...
Would it make sense to work with a stop/loss hedge on Alphabet in case the price falls sharply again? Or is that unnecessary with such a solid stock?

I am often very indecisive
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Chris, I completely agree with you
Discipline is a key element in being successful.
If a stock's profits go through the roof, which we all hope, you shouldn't lose sight of the composition of your portfolio.
I then "siphon off" some of the position and let the rest continue to run.
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Do you mean me, I feel like I've been caught out? I have made many of these mistakes myself, thank you for your assessment.
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I have started to set a kind of "interest target" for each share that I hold longer (not for short-term trading). I calculate this depending on the time I hold the share including dividends received... and if the performance falls below the target value I should sell... for short-term trades I automatically sell at max x (usually 20-25% depending on the volatility of the share) loss... since I have been doing this my performance has improved...
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Great contribution! Even though I don't have that much experience yet, what you have written helps me a lot. Even if some things sound simple, it speaks of many years of deep experience. I am grateful for such input. Thank you very much. Ps: max lever 3 for me 😉
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The problem with the execution is that the wrong strategy of driving with discipline still leads to ruin.

So it's more of an iterative strategy that learns from mistakes and then avoids them with discipline.
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do you also work with cash secured puts or covered calls options to make money with premiums? or is that not your thing?

Lg and thanks for your contributions
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Beginners should generally be advised against trading. And selling immediately when the market goes into negative territory is the classic mistake made by beginners on the stock market.
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Thank you for the really detailed report and wealth of experience.
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