2Semana·

Circus Defense- Is the first big catch coming now?

I came across the following advertisement earlier during my brief overview research:

https://circus.jobs.personio.com/job/2492964?language=en

The title is therefore deliberately catchy and also somewhat maritime.... because the locations in particular catch my eye in the job advertisement:

Hamburg, Rendsburg, Kiel

All Bundeswehr locations. 🪖🇩🇪

The combination of these locations in conjunction with the role description of the advertised position really leaves room for speculation:

"As a Robotics Kitchen Operator - Defense, you will be responsible for the hands-on, daily operation of Circus' robotic kitchen system at the sites.

This is an execution only role. You will ensure the system is clean, stocked, operational and ready to produce food at all times by following clear procedures and working reliably in a structured, safety-sensitive environment work.

YOUR DAILY BUSINESS

Operate the robotic kitchen system during live food production.
Clean and maintain the system according to hygiene and HACCP standards.
Prepare and replenish ingredients, consumables and containers.
Perform basic system checks and routine maintenance.
Identify, document and escalate technical or operational issues.
Follow SOPs, safety rules and protocols at defense sites at all times....."

I can't imagine Circus advertising a purely executive position for defense sites of the Bundeswehr if there are no concrete discussions going on here ...

The positive news flow from Circus has been completely sold off in recent months and continues to be overshadowed by the capital increase.

In my view, such an order would have enormous implications and would certainly stimulate share price fantasies again.

No investment advice:

I am sticking to my price target: €40-112. The usecase of Circus is massively underestimated in my eyes.

LG and have a great start to 9/5 tomorrow!

circus.jobs.personio.comRobotics Kitchen Operator – Defence Sector (m/f/d) | Jobs at Circus

15 Comentários

Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

2Semana

That is indeed very interesting. I'm also hanging in there with quite a bit of money, the merciless sell-off after the capital increase, despite an almost consistently positive news flow. I'm curious to see how things will continue, I'm currently (still) on board.👍🏻

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Daxhund@Daxhund

2Semana

@All-in-or-nothing I also invested more heavily after the enormous sell-off.

But I'm also super relaxed and confident. The next few weeks will bring clarity 👀

There are currently 1650 shares in the portfolio. But I'd be happy to add more

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

2Semana

@Daxhund 1650 is definitely a statement, I'm a long way away from that. And yet I see a lot of potential, which I think the market is still failing to recognize.

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Daxhund@Daxhund

2Semana

@All-in-or-nothing Yep, many people really think of a large microwave, but underestimate all the factors that come with it.

But: come time, come ra(d)t🚲

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

2Semana

@Daxhund and it's not really the first big fish either. The Ukrainian armed forces are being supplied with the systems, which represents a real deployment under real mission conditions. Rewe has been piloting the systems in some stores for at least a few months, and the number of pilot locations is increasing (although I would somehow miss the sushi stations where someone rolls by hand all day long😂). Quite underestimated in my view.🤷🏼‍♂️

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Daxhund@Daxhund

2Semana

@All-in-or-nothing But it is precisely this exaggeration and underestimation that is known to be the best way to earn money 👀

That's why my price target is up to €112. As soon as the scope is recognized, a 3 billion market cap is easily possible in the short term.
The market is too huge for that ....
And who knows, the market is often more irrational than you are

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Chris@Multibagger

2Semana

In the meantime, they have reached the issue price again. In this case, my strictly yield-oriented approach after the entry ensured that I got out again in good time. However, I am considering a re-entry.

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Charmin@Charmin

2Semana

I had them on my radar, but it was far too much bullshit bingo and blah blah blah without anything concrete. It put me off getting involved in the long term. I'm also not convinced that the technology is anywhere near ready to provide *reliable* food for a large crowd.

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Chris@Multibagger

2Semana

@Charmin But US stocks are also doing well overall, even though they have a president who plays bullshit bingo all day. :-)

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mco@mco

2Semana

Interesting. Does anyone have any information on how the test works at Rewe or has anyone tried it out for themselves in Düsseldorf?
Or are there at least demo videos? I couldn't find anything tangible last year either.

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Daxhund@Daxhund

2Semana

@mco

There are 2 videos of Circus shortly after it went into operation.
The head of Rewe West also spoke briefly about it in a podcast. He had a good feeling, but of course he could not and did not want to verify it.
https://youtu.be/M1NYY8UdIg4?si=eTk2bP0IKKiP4Wj_

There was a report on a user test on Reddit r/circusgroup. In 15 minutes he reported on 6essen. The same number could be seen in a review of the ca1 in the 2nd Rewe. During the review, 7 meals were ordered. https://youtu.be/8qbDWco_gR4?si=MroTi_R4-l0g5QkY

If you consider that it easily pays for itself after 2 years with 100 meals, these figures make quite an impression 🥘🧑🏻‍🍳

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mco@mco

2Semana

@Daxhund cool, thank you. But the chart looks pretty nasty. Let's see if it still goes to the all time low (xetra) at €9.10.

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Daxhund@Daxhund

2Semana

@mco the chart is relatively banal to me 🍌. The news is all positive and my narrative is about prices of €40-112 in the short term

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

2Semana

@Daxhund Apart from the chart or the love for the company. I've had a look at it, but I completely lack the vision of how it can be scaled with the current status. Imagine it's lunch break in the city center, and now the mob comes and the thing cooks my portion for a few minutes? The idea itself, i.e. unmanned cooking, is good. But I see more potential for robots in the system kitchen than a kitchen cell that cooks one dish after another unmanned.

What's the detail in your narrative that I'm missing, that the share price will increase tenfold?
I'm always in on small caps with potential, but I'm overlooking or not understanding something 🤷🏽‍♂️

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Daxhund@Daxhund

2Semana

My main narrative is not based on the retail sector.
And the aim here is not for the masses to go there. It's more of an additional offer or perhaps even a replacement for inefficient salad bars.
Nevertheless, I believe that it can also cope well with the lunchtime business. 4 stations cooking at the same time for 4-6 minutes each. You can think about how long you have to wait for your favorite kebab during peak hours. I think it's acceptable.

But just as you describe it, I think that many people lack the vision of how such a "microwave" can change our everyday lives in the long term. Many don't see the use cases.

Basically, it is a centralization, standardization and simplification of cooking processes. Wherever food is needed but is not the main business.
The robot does not "cook" everything itself in this sense. The ingredients are prepared and or pre-cooked centrally and the robot then only combines and finalizes the dishes.
I don't think a robot will be more efficient in the kitchen. You still need smell, taste and touch for the pure cooking process.

But you still get varied, fresh and hot meals.

With software costs of €10,000 per month, you can quickly replace 3-4 chefs (or those who are not available in system catering anyway/ 25% of all positions are vacant).

Use cases here are also obvious, of course:
- No expensive gross wages. A robot does not need unemployment insurance, health insurance, etc. -> which of course leads to very pleasant prices for the consumer. And only then does a lot of things make sense if both sides benefit from something...

- better determination of requirements. not like with salads: produce 100 and 60 are bought.

- highest hygiene standards/ people are mainly the source of origin.

And of course this applies above all to the military sector. You don't need a whole cooking team behind the front line... one container, 40 serving compartments (10 induction hobs) and varied food. Also a small trend that the Americans are currently following -> soldiers are competitive athletes who should be fed accordingly. With the CA-M you only have one supply line for the food.
I could also imagine the CA-M on large construction sites at Strabag and co.

I just tried to cut it off briefly. I could of course also share my narrative in full here.

How do I get to 40-112€ now?
Your comment is actually exactly right again: many people don't recognize the use case. Maybe because it's not rocket science or something or other... plus, of course, the concept hasn't been confirmed yet. Absolutely beaten up after the capital increase although Mercedes was added as a partner, Ukraine gets 25 CA-1(!) (not CA-M), a leasing partner has been found and a simple ADR structure has been set up in the USA, the share price only knows one direction.

So of course there are some risks... but the gas market has a huge problem that is already there, which is why such solutions have to come. (By the way, the global birth rates of civilized countries also play a huge role there)... it's not getting any better and there's a simple solution here.

There are a lot of (non-legally binding) demand reports. Approximately 8500... including partners such as Strabag, China unis (which will only be rolled out next year, as the demand in the military sector is probably too great), FLC GROUP, Diakonie, HEM, Rewe, Mangal .... As soon as the test phases are successful, many are willing to roll out quickly. And that's what it's all about right now, closing lots of partnerships and then winning the market... once in, the partners won't change ...

The market is gigantic and for many intangible, with a volume of 6000 plus from this year, the hardware sales alone in the next few years will exceed the current market value by a lot. Current valuation at 280 million... hardware alone is expected to generate almost 1 billion in sales over the next few years.
And this at the beginning of a new market...

I suspect a military contract in the next few weeks that will restore investors' imagination and confidence.... In the short term, we will certainly be back at €25 ...
As soon as people recognize the use case, things will get really exciting. With the market size and Circus' razorblade model with recurring software revenues, I see 1 billion market capitalization (40€) - 3 billion (112€) as more than realistic, even if much of this is certainly driven by short-term hype.

In the long term, I also see valuations of 15-30 billion as not unlikely.

I don't see humanoids in the cooking industry (cost factor)

I'd like to listen to a few podcasts by Nikolas Bullwinkel(ceo). Brilliant guy, then maybe the vision will become clearer.

I hope the text isn't too jumbled up. Just got started.

Lg

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