Bayer is one of those stocks that perfectly shows the difference between price performance and business fundamentals.
I currently hold Bayer with a +70% gain, but that doesn’t mean the story is simple — or risk-free.
Bayer is a diversified German group operating in pharmaceuticals, crop science and consumer health. Historically a solid name, but the Monsanto acquisition changed everything. Litigation related to glyphosate, high debt and repeated write-downs have heavily damaged investor confidence over the last few years.
From a financial perspective, the company is still under pressure. Profits remain weak, margins are compressed and management has clearly stated that the real recovery is expected only from 2026 onwards. On the positive side, free cash flow has improved and debt reduction is now a priority, which reduces short-term liquidity risk.
The stock’s strong performance over the last year suggests that the market has already priced in most of the bad news and is now betting on a gradual turnaround. However, this also means expectations are rising, and any disappointment could hit the share price again.
For me, Bayer is no longer a deep value play, but a recovery story with asymmetric risk:
upside depends on execution and legal clarity, downside comes from delays, lawsuits or weaker-than-expected earnings.
I’m comfortable holding it after such a strong run, but I wouldn’t consider it a low-risk investment by any means.
👉 Do you see Bayer as a long-term turnaround opportunity, or mainly a trading stock after this rally?
