5D·

Is luxury going down the drain?

My fingers are itching and I would like to $MC (-0,99%) buy more. But somehow I can't see a bottom at the moment. Does anyone have a crystal ball? We have almost reached the tops from the Corona low, the low was €289. Uncertainty and consumer restraint today vs. corona impact? Is that somehow comparable?

P/E ratio, KCV, P/B ratio all at Corona level or below and now 2.9% div yield.

The current decline of LVMH is already different from the pandemic-related crash. While 2020 was a sudden external shock, the current situation is more the result of a gradual weakening of demand and increased uncertainty. In my view, however, LVMH's fundamental strengths remain intact.

The question is when there will be a return to positive global consumer sentiment and stabilization, especially in the Chinese market.

So, buy or wait?

25 Comentários

Stuttgarter81@Moneymoney

Sparplan !

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Epi@Epi

I'm not so familiar with the details, but from a global perspective I would hold off buying until a clear, medium-term bottom has formed (1/2 year no falling prices or so).

The consumption figures in China, the USA and the EU do not look good. Wars have to be financed. State budgets need to be restructured. The fat years are over for now. If the stock markets were to tumble now, luxury would be the first thing to be cut. 🤷

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Leon@Investingyoung

$MC is no longer real luxury, real luxury is $RMS and $BC that's why they're doing well. LVMH is mainstream upper class consumption but not "rich" consumption, you know?

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Leon@Investingyoung

@Investingyoung is like Mercedes Benz (LVMH) vs Ferrari or Bugatti (HRMs and BC)

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Olli@Olli68

@Investingyoung 👍👍👍

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Frank@schlimmschlimm

@Investingyoung It always depends on how you look at it, I estimate that 70% of people consider a Mercedes to be a luxury ;-)

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finanzperpetuum@finanzperpetuum

@Investingyoung Really? The L doesn't stand for luxury?

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Phoenix@Phoenix

I would simply start with a savings plan

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WhenLambo@SoonLambo

We saw the first signs of stabilization in the Chinese economy in mid/late 2024. I think we could enter an initial recovery phase at the end of 2025. Apart from that, the consumer mood in some industrialized countries (e.g. usa and Germany) is still rather poor.
I have placed a buy order at € 440. I am already invested

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Mav83!@Maverick4831

Runs on a savings plan and is a solid dividend payer. Organic growth is not strong at the moment, but LVMH is already an absolute big player.

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Nobody@Nobody_123

I'll hold on for now, but unfortunately everything depends on a few people in the world...
And I hope that the world will slowly come to its senses and return to the path of peace and prosperity...

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Michael D.@Angstundbange

Hold and let the savings plan continue. The bottom is near. 🫡

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finanzperpetuum@finanzperpetuum

@Angstundbange also my feeling ☝🏼

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Ronald@AlterMann

Unfortunately I borrowed the glass ball, it's a bit late for the morning urine and I don't have any coffee grounds because I drink tea... 🤷‍♂️

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KoenigsRasse@KoenigsRasse

In my view, it's definitely worth buying. This is due to the weakness in China, which is sure to recover soon. I am also in the red but remain confident for the future. In the long term. Ultimately, it's an ETF in the luxury segment 😝

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Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

While $RACE is becoming more and more exclusive and the demand is always there.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

Must hold back, will probably buy more between 400-420 euros

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DerDanner@Therapeut

@BamBamInvest What a shit, in the red every day
Where is the end please? My worst purchase ever 😂

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

@Therapeut Good question, but we are already oversold. But I have absolutely no concerns here, it's just a question of time and I have to restrain myself from buying every -3% 😂

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DerDanner@Therapeut

@BamBamInvest Clearly a question of time, I'm now 40% down and I'm really fed up.
I would have done better with almost anything

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

@Therapeut I've also experienced this, but with values that can make up 50% more quickly. That's why I didn't go all in straight away.

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finanzperpetuum@finanzperpetuum

Another topic, USD currency risk. Thanks for pointing this out to Waikiki. In a story he pointed out that 25% of US sales will of course also decrease due to the devaluation.

Let's fire up the calculator: Let's take Q1 (25% of approx. 20bn sales), €600m has disappeared due to the devaluation from Jan to today. Simple calculation: x 4 plus a little less consumption in the USA ... this could result in 15-20% less US sales in 2025.

All roughly estimated, of course.

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Kurz@MrKurt89

I would or will continue to buy. I have explained the reasons sufficiently elsewhere. Alternatively, I agree with the previous speakers, simply a savings plan. Just do me a favor and don't wait for bottoms and don't draw lines on charts... You'll be laughing at yourself in 30 years.

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Andreea@portfolio_genius_71

I have the same doubts. I want to buy more but need a crystal 🔮...still think it's a great stock, but.. when to buy more?

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Follower C.@Dividendenflowmit60

Sometimes even such solid stocks can fall for longer than you have money to add to them. In addition, this group of buyers also holds back in case of uncertainties, which you should see in the next sales and profits.I have a small savings plan but I'm not getting in big at the moment.I prefer Nike or Puma at the moment, because these things are more likely to be bought due to lower prices

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