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BYD shares +7% | Expansion takes off - This has NEVER happened before! Has the starting signal been given?

Today I am analyzing the BYD share following the latest quarterly figures. The share has already risen +7.4% today - but the question is: is it still worth getting in now?

📉 Quarterly figures: BYD reports a fall in profits for the first time in four years:

- Net profit: 32.6 billion yuan (-19%)

- Turnover: 803.9 billion yuan (below expectations)

- Vehicle sales: +7.7% to 4.6 million units

➡️ Growth remains strong, profitability under pressure.

🌍 Growth driver International expansion is becoming massively more important:

- Over 1 million vehicles exported in 2025

- European sales +270% - exports higher than domestic sales for the first time

- Target for 2026: 1.3 million export vehicles

BYD is also investing heavily in technology: Blade Battery 2.0 (higher efficiency, no cobalt) and advances in autonomous driving

📊 Fundamental valuation:

- Share around 37% below fair value (~185 HKD)

- Sales, margins and profits continue to grow

- Regional distribution is moving towards 50:50 (currently 61:39)

Analysts expect strong growth in sales and margins in the coming years

📈 Chart analysis:

- Sideways phase between 92-105 HKD

- Breakout above 105 HKD → potential up to 130 HKD (+20%)

- The setup remains stable above HKD 82

- Below it becomes significantly weaker

⚠️ Conclusion: Despite weaker earnings, BYD continues to show strong growth and clear future prospects. The current valuation offers room for maneuver, while a technical breakout could serve as a possible starting signal for the next upward movement.

How do you see the $1211 (+0,22%) ? Worth a chance for you?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ymQCYp9V9c

www.youtube.comBYD Aktie +7% | Expansion schlägt durch - Das gab es noch NIE! Ist der Startschuss gefallen?

9 Comentários

GHF@GHF

A bit too lurid for me

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

@GHF always like this.😅🤷🏼‍♂️😉

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TradingHase@TradingHase

@GHF True, but the bottom line is still correct. BYD is gaining more and more momentum.

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GHF@GHF

@TradingHase It is difficult to say whether the conclusion is coherent, as at least the text does not mention any risks, let alone evaluate them or weigh them up against the opportunities. 🤷‍♂️

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TradingHase@TradingHase

@GHF Yes, but you already know that from the creator from the past. Have a look at my overview of BYD, which I recently published 😉.

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin mr promptly answered him 😬

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

You have really summarized all of BYD's major future topics. The international expansion and the new battery technologies sound great.

However, we evaluate companies strictly quantitatively and filter hard facts.
If you take off your rose-colored growth glasses, the reality looks a lot more uncomfortable:

📉 1. the chart and share price check (the mandatory task)
The current live price is just under HKD 105.80. You are absolutely right, the share is currently testing the upper edge of its sideways range. It is no longer a classic falling knife, but we are also a long way from an intact, fundamentally driven bull market. On a one-year horizon, the share is still down a good 20%.

🚗 2. what the company does
BYD is the most vertically integrated electric car and battery manufacturer in the world. They build practically everything themselves, from the chip to the battery cell. The problem: they operate in an absolute mass market in which the most brutal price war in automotive history is currently raging.

📊 3. the bare key figures & facts (as at March 31, 2026)
P/E ratio (price-earnings ratio): ~ 22.0 (TTM)
KUV (price-sales ratio): ~ 1.1
KCV (Price-Cashflow Ratio): Under massive pressure. Profit quality is falling as operating cash flow is stagnating due to high inventories and massive investments (CapEx).
P/B (Price-Book Value Ratio): ~ 3.8 to 4.0
Dividend yield: ~ 1.36 % (misses our minimum requirement of 3.5 % for an income investment by miles).

🔬 4. the formula check (this is where it gets bloody)
You're celebrating the 4.6 million vehicles sold. But let's see what really sticks with the shareholder:
The Core Quality Formula (sales growth + operating margin = score):
Turnover growth (2025): Sales increased to 803.9 billion yuan. This is a meagre increase of just 3.5% compared to the previous year! The gigantic growth of previous years has stuttered massively.
Margin: The net margin has slumped to a dramatic 4.1% (the gross margin fell to a 5-year low of 17.7%). Let us make a reasonable assumption of an operating margin of around 5.0 to 5.5 %.
Result: 3.5 + 5.5 = score 9.0!

Conclusion: Our rule of thumb is crystal clear: anything below 15 is "weak/speculative". A score of 9.0 for an alleged growth company is a complete disaster. The qualitative growth is gone.

The hard exclusion rule (the death sentence for BYD):
Sales growth stagnant? Yes (+3.5% is virtually stagnant at this valuation). Operating margin permanently below or close to 5%? We are scratching hard at this death zone. Story > Numbers? Absolutely!
The filter is merciless: Exclusion! No investment.

🥊 5. future prospects & competition (the bitter reality)
Why is profit falling by 19% to 32.6 billion yuan even though they are building more cars? Because of the Chinese price war! The average selling price per BYD car has dropped to about 141,000 yuan. They are selling more sheet metal, but earning less on each car.
What's more, BYD lost the lead in domestic sales to Geely at the beginning of 2026. The flight to exports is not a luxurious expansion, but a sheer necessity in order to escape the falling margins in China - and in Europe and the USA, the heavy tariffs are now waiting.

🎯 6. special entry zones (the "Bargain Hunter's List")
As BYD falls hard through our quality filters, the stock is not a strategic long-term investment for us. However, if you like the China risk and want to trade the technical breakout above 105 HKD that you mentioned:

Zone 1 (The pullback): A pullback to around 95 HKD (the safe middle of the sideways channel).
Zone 2 (The panic bottom): The 52-week low at HKD 88.50.

📋 7. detailed report: profit margins, alternatives & conclusion

Conclusion: BYD builds excellent cars, but the stock is currently a real value trap. The gigantic sales growth of previous years has shrunk to 3.5% and profit margins are imploding. Anyone entering the market at a P/E ratio of 22 is paying a premium price for historic growth that no longer exists in the harsh reality of 2025/2026.

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Christoph@ChrisBizz

@Raketentoni Strong analysis 👍🏻

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Der O.@MMeier

@Raketentoni nicely summarized. However, I remain committed and hope for an upward breakout. I would not enter the market again at the moment.

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