4Mês·

The most misunderstood stock I know

$OWL is an alternative asset manager where investors can only withdraw their money to a limited extent. Its business consists of three pillars, the largest of which is lending (direct lending). As some investors are assuming massive loan defaults in the software sector, the share has crashed. It is also one of the most shorted stocks on the NYSE.


In fact, there is no sign that the AUM is eroding, but it is rising by 10 billion per quarter, which is generating more and more fees.

Also, their credit funds continue to have the lowest default rates in the industry (<0.5%). They are also massively expanding their other two business areas.


The share price fall has led to a 9% dividend while they wait for the market to stop going crazy.


As a bonus, a short squeeze awaits, as the 140m shares borrowed will have to be bought back at some point.


Incidentally, the new business comes from US pension funds and life insurers, who examine the loan portfolios very closely and understand the business model. (Less well-informed) retail investors, on the other hand, are looking for a way out.


In any case, I got in big and bought more. What do you think?

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29 Comentários

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Blue Owl is often overlooked. Yet the company is benefiting from one of the most exciting financial trends of recent years: more and more capital is flowing out of the traditional banking system into alternative financing and private credit. At the same time, Blue Owl manages enormous assets of institutional investors and earns from this long-term structural trend. For ME, a potential long-term winner in the changing financial world.
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@G_Capital pays out over 100% and has already cut the dividend...hmmm...everything is fine 🤷🏻‍♂️🫡
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@SAUgut777 you are talking about the bdc, he is talking about the asset manager .
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@SAUgut777 This is currently correct - for the asset manager. However, $OWL still has around 30 billion of contractually committed uninvested capital (dry powder). This means they can easily increase their AUM enough to cover the dividend.
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@SAUgut777 $OWL and $OBDC are often confused
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So the post is irrelevant 😅 Asset manager or BDC, facts are facts and remain facts
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@Dividendenopi maybe, but I was clearly talking about a share here and not confusing left with right
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If you're talking about $OWL, then you're not quite right. If you're talking about $OBDC, I'm with you. And we're talking about the former here
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@SAUgut777 although I agree with you that they actually announced a dividend cut in May. I didn't have that on my radar 🌂
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@Dividendenopi and my post was clearly about $OBDC 🤷🏻‍♂️
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@Dividendenopi Fair point. I was looking at OWL a little too much through private credit glasses. The company is of course more broadly positioned.
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I am not fully convinced: rising interest rate will not help private debt that is, in any case, linked to the official banking system, although with a more flexible approach. Private debt exploded in the zero - interest environment. It is not only about software companies.
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@GiCi Valid concern. Nevertheless, the long-term structural trend remains intact in my view: more alternative financing and less dependence on the traditional banking system.
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@G_Capital I see your point, but remember that, in many cases, private debt complements banking system, and does not replace it fully. So, they are more inter-linked than they appear. A crisis in one of the two sectors could impact the other.
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I am also in it but in obdc.
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@GiCi $OWL business is not only running a couple of BDCs. They also have Real Assets and GP Strategic Capital, where most of their growth currently takes place
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@AlterFalter24 Sure, but high interest rates would hit real estate too. This is what the market is pricing, together with SaaS.
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@GiCi as long as they raise enough funds, they generate Fee Related Earnings, that in turn pay my dividends.

You are right though, extremly high interest rates or the infamous SaaS- pocalipse, or a recession in the US would hurt them and make fundraising difficult.

I believe in the stock and see it as an opportunity with limited downside Risk
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However, your dividend is also paid out at over 100% or the dividend has been reduced, whether that is sustainable 🤫🤷🏻‍♂️
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@SAUgut777 you are talking about the bdc , not the asset manager
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@Asgard19 That was the topic 🤷🏻‍♂️
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@SAUgut777 you are talking about 2 different companies
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@Asgard19 I already understood that, but it doesn't change the fact that one pays out over 100% and the other over 900%...neither is healthy 🤫😉
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@SAUgut777 I would not trust getquin, but rather read the quarterly figures and they have covered the dividend.
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@Asgard19 Well then congratulations, there's always a catch 😁
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The dividend coverage of $OWL was 82% as of March 31. To get to 100%, they are about 36 billion short, i.e. they simply have to invest their dry powder (e.g. in loans or real estate) to achieve this.

For an asset manager it does not make sense to retain profits, i.e. they simply aim for 100% or a little more coverage.

For this reason, they have guaranteed the dividend amount for the remaining quarters of 2026.

Of course, no investment is without risk: the 9% doesn't come for free 😊.

The risk is that they do no or hardly any new business and there is a massive outflow of funds.

My only point is that the risk/reward ratio is extremely asymmetrical (positive) because the share is drastically misunderstood.
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@AlterFalter24 But we're also talking about jackets and pants here 😇
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Update on August 3: $OWL is trading at $11.23 and has risen by about 15% since last Thursday.

The short sellers’ arguments have been refuted, and their investment case is falling apart.

Now, large portions of the well over 100 million shorted shares are being bought back as prices surge dramatically.

🤓💰💰💰🤓🤓🤓
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