1Mês·

🚀 Added SpaceX to my portfolio—and the real buying pressure is yet to come! 💥

Why did I $SPCX (+1,3%) ? The simple answer is: Index mechanics. 📊

With a market capitalization of around 2 trillion U.S. dollars, no major index can ignore SpaceX anymore.

What many people underestimate:

Index funds (ETFs) must hold the stock as soon as it’s included in indices like the Nasdaq-100 or the Russell 1000/MSCI World.

When trillions in ETF capital flow mechanically into a stock with a relatively small free float, it creates enormous buying pressure.

Some indices are already adjusting their rules, and the S&P 500 will follow suit over time. Those who get in before the broad ETF wave positions themselves precisely for this flow. 📈

This is not investment advice!

#SpaceX
#SPCX
#Aktien
#Investing
#Börse
#ETFs
#Starlink
#Nasdaq

5 Comentários

Donkey Diktator@DonkeyInvestor

1Mês

What if I told you that's already factored into the price 😬?

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Brandon90@Brandon90

1Mês

@DonkeyInvestor Everything is always factored into a stock's price. I'm still bullish, just like with Tesla 🚀😜

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Kurz@MrKurt89

1Mês

Here, you're buying into a vision of the future with an (extreme) Elon bonus. If you're okay with that, you can go ahead and buy it with confidence.

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Liebesspieler@Liebesspieler

1Mês

An intriguing theory. I’m going to deliberately take the other side here ;)

$SPCX has already lost about a third of its value since its all-time high in mid-June. The first question that comes to mind for me is: When exactly did the much-cited ETF buying pressure actually take place?

The answer is sobering, because it’s already behind us. According to J.P. Morgan, its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 in early July triggered several billion dollars in mandatory purchases, on top of which came its inclusion in the Russell 1000 in late June and its inclusion in the MSCI World and ACWI indices, bringing in billions more in passive capital.

That was the actual buying pressure, and it has long since been priced in.

What concerns me instead is this: Who is actually buying when the free float is only in the low single-digit percentage range and the full lock-up period expires in December?

Part of the lock-up period was already lifted in August, resulting in noticeable selling pressure. That’s the opposite of what the buying pressure theory implies.

That leaves the question of valuation. With a net loss in the high single-digit billions for 2025 and an EV/EBITDA in the triple-digit range, how am I actually supposed to assess this?
The analyst range between the bull and bear cases extends from a significant double-digit upside to a downside that clearly exceeds my pain threshold. A range that, for me, doesn’t result in a viable risk-reward ratio.

For me, the question remains: Is this still a buy story, or is it already a sell story that just doesn’t feel like one yet? I wouldn’t take a position right now, and even as a stock to watch, I wouldn’t take another look until after the next earnings report and the full expiration of the lock-up period in December, at the earliest.

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

1Mês

The misconception of "low free float":

You assume that index funds must buy the stock based on its $2 trillion market capitalization and that this massive flow of money must then squeeze through the eye of the needle of a small free float.

The fact is: All major indices (S&P 500, MSCI World, Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000) are float-adjusted (weighted by free float).

If SpaceX had only a 10% free float, the company would be weighted at only $200 billion in the index.
So the ETFs buy in exact proportion to the available free float.

Your predicted “enormous buying pressure,” which is supposed to send the price through the roof, fizzles out in the face of this simple index math.

And second, your other thesis:

Front-running has long been priced in: The strategy of getting ahead of passive ETFs (“index front-running”) is old hat. Arbitrage funds and institutional quants are already pricing in these liquidity effects with algorithms long before retail investors can even tweet about it.
Often, the actual inclusion in the index then leads to the classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect (as was impressively demonstrated in 2020 when Tesla was added to the S&P 500, and the stock price plummeted on the day of inclusion).

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