$NBIS (+0%) Q3:
Sales: 146.1m (+355% YoY)
ARR guidance by the end of 2025: 900-1.1 bn
ARR 2026: 7-9 bn (+700%)
Loss/share: approx. -0.56 USD
Explosive growth and demandThe core business in the AI cloud sector is already profitable with a +19% adjusted EBITDA margin and is growing successively - from zero to an estimated USD 8 bn ARR by the end of 2026. Demand is "infinite", Nebius is fully booked for months (currently no free capacity, therefore deal with "only" USD 3 bn). $META (+0,4%) "only" 3 bn) The focus is on scaling capacity, as this is the biggest bottleneck.
Strategy for capex and constructionCapex is divided into three phases: Land and power securing (only 1% of costs), data center construction (18-20%) and GPU deployment (80%). Nebius secures capacity aggressively, but only builds as much as capital and real demand allow. Vertical integration ensures high margins, acquisitions (e.g. of Bitcoin miners for land/power) are being examined.
Deals with hyperscalersSee above (alongside an earlier USD 17 billion agreement with Microsoft). Such partnerships are expected, but Nebius prioritizes its own cloud business. Hyperscaler deals are "less interesting" as capacity is limited - customers are selected based on highest price per MW.
Risks and outlookIn response to questions about the AI bubble, the CEO replied that there is real demand and value creation as long as diversification (via customers), conservative investments and responsible financing are maintained. ARR guidance for 2025 remains at USD 900-1,100m, with ARR multiplication to 8x by 2026 at leading margins. The mix of core AI (profitable) and subsidiaries (valued at c. USD 10bn) makes the valuation very attractive.
Small dilution is of course also planned (10% for 700% YoY growth is bullish for me). They want to increase the pipeline to 2.5GW by the end of 2026, 50% of which is already "booked/blocked" according to the CRO.
I remain very optimistic. If the share price now goes to €90 due to the dilution, I will buy more.
Lg Max
