1D·

Xiaomi's current stock price is an opportunity, not a cause for panic.

$1810 (+0,8%)


Don’t let the typical quarterly panic and the shaky hands of would-be traders unsettle you. Anyone with a long-term perspective on the stock market sees the current price as a massive value bargain, since the mathematically fair value is actually between 5 and 6 euros.


The current slump is self-inflicted and temporary. Expensive memory chips are temporarily eating into smartphone margins due to the AI boom, but this will resolve itself in 2 to 4 years thanks to the cyclical nature of the market. At the same time, Xiaomi is being collectively punished due to the “China penalty” and geopolitical fears (Trump). Yet the real electric-car success story, with global expansion starting in 2027, is still ahead. The fact that management is buying back 20 billion HKD worth of its own shares at bargain prices right now shows just how undervalued the company is.

The market is staring in panic at the coming months. Anyone entering this with a 5- to 10-year time horizon is capitalizing on the ignorance of the masses and building real long-term wealth. Buy, sit back, and let the nervous ones sell.


P.S.: The panic over theoretical stock dilution is unfounded anyway. Getting blanket approval for this right at the annual general meeting is standard practice. Theoretically, any company worldwide can and may do this; the key point is that Xiaomi is actually massively canceling shares right now instead of diluting them.

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11 Comentários

We've now reached the 200-day EMA, and there's also a fair amount of trading volume here. So there's hope that the price will stabilize here.
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@jkb92 Well, we're still a long way from the 200-day moving average. That's around €4.50.
@Floiam on the weekly chart, i.e., the 200-week moving average.
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@jkb92 Okay. But by default, when people say "200EMA," they're referring to the daily chart. But thanks for clarifying that it's the weekly chart.
@Floiam Exactly, but the longer-term average is the 200-week moving average. If you look at stocks on a long-term chart, the vast majority eventually return to their 200-week moving average—or at least come close to it. Charly Munger once said the following about this: If all you ever did was buy high-quality stocks at the 200-week moving average, you would beat the S&P 500 by a wide margin over time.
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@jkb92 As a staunch opponent of technical analysis, Charlie Munger has certainly never given the 200-week moving average a second thought. But let's just leave it at that. Have a nice evening!
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@Floiam So come on, if you don't believe me, just Google it yourself. Besides, buying at the 200-week moving average has nothing to do with technical analysis. It just tells you that you can buy the stock right now at the average price over the last four years—in other words, a reasonably fair or attractive price.
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“The shaky hands of would-be traders”/“The ignorance of the masses”
A little free tip: You don’t have the slightest clue how the stock market works or who drives the prices here, so you’re better off buying ETFs.
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@FairValue There’s no need to take it so personally or react so sensitively. Of course, the big institutions drive the volume. But they’re the ones who exploit the panic and the tight stop-loss orders of nervous retail investors when bad news hits, to push prices down in the short term and buy low. Anyone who gets emotionally swept up in that is just going to lose.
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@Floiam I'm not taking it personally at all; I'm just giving you some well-meaning advice.
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@FairValueAll right. Thanks for the free tip.
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