Dear Community,
After $ONDS (-11,34%) joined our community project last Tuesday Tenbagger der Zukunft and is often used as discussion material in the community anyway, I would like to introduce the company to you below. I am gradually approaching the scope of a deep dive. :)
I look forward to your feedback!
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🏢 Short description
Ondas Holdings is a provider of autonomous drone and robotic systems (Ondas Autonomous Systems) and private wireless network solutions (Ondas Networks). The products (such as the Optimus or Iron Drone platforms) are primarily aimed at safety-critical areas, defense, rail transport and critical infrastructure. Most recently, the company has benefited massively from the global increase in demand for drone defense and autonomous surveillance systems.
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🏢 1. company data
- Founded: 2012 (as American Robotics & Ondas Networks).
- Headquarters: Waltham, Massachusetts (USA).
- Industry: Robotics / autonomous systems & wireless networks.
- Business model: Ondas provides a vertical platform for industrial drones (Ondas Autonomous Systems) and private, highly secure wireless networks (Ondas Networks) for critical infrastructure such as rail transportation and utilities.
- Employees: Approx. 150-200 (strong focus on R&D).
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📈 2. finances & company value (as of Q3 2025)
- Market capitalization: Approx. USD 5.1 bn.
- Revenue growth (YoY): +582 % (increase to USD 10.1 million in Q3).
- Explanation: The percentage increase in sales compared to the same quarter of the previous year. An indicator of extreme scaling.
- Net cash (net liquidity): USD 433.4 million (pro forma after capital increases up to USD 840.4 million).
- Explanation: Cash and cash equivalents less current liabilities. A buffer for acquisitions and operations.
- Orders on hand (backlog): USD 23.3 million.
- Explanation: The value of orders that have not yet been processed but are already fixed.
- Gross margin: 26 %.
- Explanation: Proportion of sales remaining after deduction of direct manufacturing costs (COGS).
- Operating margin (EBIT): -153 %.
- Explanation: Indicates operating profitability; shows the high level of investment in growth and development.
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📊 3. valuation ratios (Is the share expensive or cheap?)
- P/E ratio (price/earnings ratio): Negative / Not applicable.
- Explanation: Shows how many years it will take for the company to generate its market value as profit. As Ondas is still unprofitable (net loss in Q3: USD 7.5 million), there is no value here.
- P/S ratio (price/sales ratio): approx. 142.
- Explanation: puts the market capitalization (currently approx. USD 5.1 billion) in relation to annual sales (forecast for the full year 2025: at least USD 36 million). An extremely high value, which shows that the market is already pricing in massive future growth.
- EV/EBITDA & PEG ratio: Negative / Not applicable.
- Explanation: EV/EBITDA adjusts the valuation for debt/cash, the PEG ratio puts the P/E ratio in relation to earnings growth. As Ondas is still burning cash operationally, these metrics do not (yet) apply here.
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💰 4. profitability & margins (how efficient is the company?)
- Gross margin (gross margin): 26% (as at Q3 2025).
- Explanation: Shows how much of revenue is left over after deducting direct production costs (Q3: USD 2.6 million profit on USD 10.1 million revenue). Management is aiming for 50% in the long term.
- Operating margin (EBIT margin): Strongly negative (-153 % in Q3).
- Explanation: What is left after deducting all running costs? Ondas had an operating loss of USD 15.5 million in Q3. The massive growth causes high costs.
- ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) & FCF margin: Negative.
- Explanation: ROIC shows the return on invested capital, the FCF margin shows the percentage share of hard cash flow in sales. The company is in an extreme growth and investment phase and is still burning cash in its operations.
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🛡️ 5. Balance sheet quality & financial health (How secure is the company?)
- Net cash (net liquidity): Excellent. Cash balance of USD 433.4m (as of Q3 2025).
- Explanation: Does the company have more cash than debt? Yes! After further capital increases in October 2025, the pro forma cash balance was even a gigantic USD 840.4 million.
- Equity ratio & debt-to-equity (debt-to-equity ratio): Very much improved.
- Explanation: Shows the ratio of own funds to borrowed funds. Ondas raised around USD 855 million in 2025 by issuing new shares (equity) and simultaneously reducing convertible bonds. The balance sheet is now extremely solid.
- Current ratio: Extremely high.
- Explanation: Can current liabilities be covered by current assets (cash)? (Should be >1). Thanks to the massive cash injection, Ondas is completely on the safe side here.
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🚁 6. specific industry key figures (growth & order situation)
(As Ondas is not a cloud/SaaS provider, we look at industry metrics instead of "Rule of 40" or "NRR")
- Revenue growth (YoY): +582 % (Q3 2025).
- Explanation: The percentage growth compared to the same quarter last year. Sales exploded from USD 1.5 million to USD 10.1 million.
- Orders on hand (backlog): USD 23.3 million (as at Q3 2025).
- Explanation: The value of orders that have already been signed but not yet processed. A key indicator for predictable future sales (has more than doubled since the beginning of 2025).
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⚔️ 7. Overview of competitors
The market for autonomous drones and security solutions is competitive. The most important competitors include:
- Skydio: A US leader in autonomous drones for inspections.
- AeroVironment $AVAV (-6,13%)
: Strong in the defense sector (switchblade drones). - Fortem Technologies: Specialized in drone defense (counter-UAS), similar to parts of the Ondas portfolio.
- Radio communications (networks): Here Ondas competes with industry giants such as Nokia
$NOKIA (+2,75%) or Ericsson $ERIC B (+0,8%) which also offer private LTE/5G networks for critical infrastructure.
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💡 8. unique selling propositions (USPs)
Why could Ondas have a "moat"?
1. Full-stack integration: While many competitors only provide the drone (hardware), Ondas offers a "Robot-as-a-Service" (RaaS) model. This includes the drone, the docking station, the analysis software package and the private wireless network.
2. FAA approvals: Ondas is one of the few companies to have received wide-ranging approvals from the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for fully automated flight beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) - a crucial regulatory advantage.
3. Focus on "mission critical": Unlike hobby drones, Ondas systems are certified for permanent use in hazardous or highly sensitive industrial environments (e.g. chemical plants, railroad tracks).
4. Frequency expertise: Through the acquisition of Sentrycs and the experience at Ondas Networks, the company has deep expertise in proprietary radio communications, making the systems more tamper-proof.
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⚙️ 9. Opportunities and risks
🟢 Opportunities:
The addressable market for automated defense systems and infrastructure monitoring is growing rapidly. With over USD 800 million in cash and cash equivalents, Ondas now has the necessary "war chest" to quickly gain market share through acquisitions (e.g. Apeiro Motion, Sentrycs) and scaling. The sales target for 2026 is already an ambitious USD 110 million.
🔴 Risks:
The current market capitalization of over USD 5 billion is in extreme contrast to the actual turnover (KUV of >140). Perfect execution for the next few years is already priced in here. In addition, the massive capital increases have led to strong dilution for existing shareholders.
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Sources:
- Company financials (Q3 2025): Official SEC filings (Form 10-Q) of Ondas Holdings Inc. and the related Earnings Call Transcript dated November 13, 2025 (via Investing.com and ir.ondas.com).
- Market data & key figures: Current share price data, market capitalization and historical trends based on TradingView and Macrotrends.
- Competitor analysis: Company portraits and stock market status (AeroVironment, Nokia, Ericsson) via Wikipedia, Simply Wall St and official investor relations pages.
- Market context & USPs: Industry analysis and competitive advantages (e.g. FAA approvals, counter-UAS focus) via , among others. Nasdaq.com.
