6Mês·

🚀 Valero Energy: +145 % profit realized!

Hello everyone,

Yesterday I closed out my position in Valero Energy $VLO (-1,69%) pretty much at the all-time high. After a strong rally, I am saying goodbye here with a price gain of 145 %.

Why the exit now?

Geopolitics: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving up the oil price massively. I consider this to be a temporary peak and expect setbacks as soon as the situation eases.

CRV & valuation: The share is trading above analysts' targets. At this level, the risk/reward ratio (CRV) is simply no longer attractive enough for me to continue holding the stock.

Signals: Reports of insider selling and an exhausted upside potential for the near future were clear signals for me to consistently lock in profits.

Next step:

As a trend trader, I am now using the freed-up capital to reinvest. I will put the money into two new stocks that have just undergone a healthy correction in order to rebuild them from the setback.

What is your assessment of the current situation in the oil sector - are you more of a "hold" or are you also hedging your initial profits?

26.03

Valero Energy

Vendido x60 em € 202,70

€ 12.162,00

144,90%

16 Comentários

Chris@Multibagger

6Mês

I continue to hold. Firstly, I believe in further escalation rather than an end. Therefore, I will probably still get into the US fracking industry, as I do not expect oil prices below $80 in the short term, even if the situation calms down. At this level, the fracking industry earns a lot more money, as it can simply ramp up the previously unused drilling sites that were not profitable at $60. A change in the sand alone (different quality, therefore slightly more expensive), which is used to keep the rock open, leads to a much better production rate. This would greatly benefit $SND, for example.

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xxxMIRKOxxx@xxxMIRKOxxx

6Mês

@Multibagger

Hey Chris, thanks for your assessment!

Hitting the absolute high on exit or the low on entry is, as you know, the most difficult discipline on the stock market, and it often requires a bit of luck. After +145%, however, I am happy to leave the 'last few meters' of the rally to others if my personal price target has been reached and the CRV at this level no longer suits me.

For me as a trend trader, it is now easy to find two new stocks that have just completed a clean correction. At the moment, I simply see more potential for the next swing than with a stock that has already gone so far.

Your case for $SND and the fracking industry sounds absolutely plausible from a technical perspective, especially as a lever on the oil price. Personally, however, this is often a bit too volatile for me, so I prefer to stick with my classic setups out of the correction.

But good luck with your entry!

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Chris@Multibagger

6Mês

@xxxMIRKOxxx I don't have your stock in my portfolio either. I was generally concerned with my exposures in the commodities sector. I currently have derivatives on $TTE and $COP, among others. And shares in $VET.

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Chris@Multibagger

6Mês

Just share your new values once you have identified them.

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xxxMIRKOxxx@xxxMIRKOxxx

6Mês

@Multibagger that won't happen until next week at the earliest. As I don't have time at the moment and am already back on the subway heading to work 😀

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Chris@Multibagger

6Mês

@xxxMIRKOxxx I'm still interested in it next week😉

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ZeissJessy@ZeissJessy

6Mês

What about cable $MTZ

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Chris@Multibagger

6Mês

@ZeissJessy Also definitely an interesting stock. However, due to the size of my portfolio, I have to focus more on small caps, as 2-3 shares don't make much sense, so I'll be leaving it out for the time being.

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Compounder@FirstCompounder

6Mês

$VNOM my bet is .... High conviction bet by Howard Marks

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ZeissJessy@ZeissJessy

6Mês

@Multibagger Your depot portfolio is not released

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Chris@Multibagger

6Mês

@ZeissJessy if you follow me.

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Ver todas as 3 restantes respostas

Chiefwiggum@Hidalidsch

6Mês

You are also welcome to name the new shares you are going to buy 🙌🏽 thank you!

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xxxMIRKOxxx@xxxMIRKOxxx

6Mês

Hello, I can't give you any specific names at the moment. My watchlists are full to bursting, but I'm not stressing about getting started.

As we all know, the profit is in the buying, so I prefer to wait patiently for the right price instead of forcing something.

I usually work by scattering various limit buy orders around the market and then simply seeing which ones are picked up.

As I'm currently very busy, I won't be able to screen the lists and place the orders until next week anyway.

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