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The key takeaway: Wall Street remains clearly bullish on Micron. Analysts expect the AI-driven shortage of memory chips to persist through 2028, potentially keeping prices, margins, and earnings structurally high.
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Average price target: $1,573
Potential from the current price of $1,055: ~49%
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Current analyst ratings:
• Melius: Buy, $2,200 (unchanged) (+109%)
• Cantor Fitzgerald: Overweight, $2,000 (unchanged) (+90%)
• Susquehanna: Positive, $2,000 (unchanged) (+90%)
• Rosenblatt: Buy, $1,900 (up from $1,500) (+80%)
• KeyBanc: Overweight, $1,750 (unchanged) (+66%)
• Needham: Buy, $1,650 (unchanged) (+56%)
• Deutsche Bank: Buy, $1,550 (unchanged, +47%)
• Baird: Outperform, $1,520 (unchanged, +44%)
• Raymond James: Outperform, $1,500 (unchanged, +42%)
• RBC: Outperform, $1,500 (unchanged, +42%)
• Stifel: Buy, $1,500 (unchanged, +42%)
• Wells Fargo: Overweight, $1,400 (unchanged, +33%)
• Wedbush: Outperform, $1,400 (unchanged) (+33%)
• Mizuho: Outperform, $1,400 (up from $1,300) (+33%)
• Citi: Buy, $1,300 (unchanged) (+23%)
• BMO: Outperform, $1,300, unchanged (+23%)
• Goldman Sachs: Neutral, $1,250, unchanged (+18%)
• Morgan Stanley: Overweight, $1,200, unchanged (+14%)
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What analysts liked:
• Q4 revenue of $54.2 billion, about 6% above consensus
• Adjusted EPS of $33.42 vs. about $31.2 expected
• Q1 revenue guidance of $61.5 billion, about 7% above Street estimates
• Q1 EPS guidance of $38.15, also well above consensus
• DRAM prices rose in the high double-digit percentage range quarter-over-quarter; NAND prices rose by about 30%
• More than 75% of production for 2027 is already committed
• Micron now has 26 long-term supply contracts, up from 16 in the previous quarter
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Key takeaway: Management expects the supply-demand balance for DRAM and NAND to tighten even further in 2027 and 2028. As a result, an increasing number of analysts see a structurally stronger memory cycle than in previous boom-and-bust phases.
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Why the stock isn’t rising anyway:
• The Q1 gross margin is expected to decline initially to around 86.3%
• Higher bonus payments, start-up costs for new factories, and rising investments are weighing on the stock in the short term
• FY27 capex could rise to around $55 billion or more
• Expectations were already extremely high following the massive rally
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The next catalyst: Micron expects gross margins to rise again after Q1. At the same time, HBM prices are expected to be significantly higher in 2027. Starting December 9, more substantial share buybacks should also become possible once the restrictions under the CHIPS Act expire.
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Conclusion: The results confirm the core Micron thesis. AI continues to drive shortages in DRAM, HBM, and NAND; long-term customer contracts increase visibility; and pricing remains exceptionally strong. The muted stock price reaction is primarily due to short-term margin pressure and very high expectations, not a slowdown in the memory cycle.