Why can't you tag me here? Thanks for the high praise 🙃 You can also post my analysis here. If anyone wants to have a stock analyzed, just tag it or write me.
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@Raketentoni strangely does not work for you. Even if I search for you with a magnifying glass, you are not displayed
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@Raketentoni I'll send you my portfolio. 😂 Joking aside, I would be very interested in the evaluation of Lemonade $LMND as I find the store very interesting. 😉
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•@TradingHase Nothing easier than that 😬 but always remember, I don't buy story stocks and the formulas are for my dumbbell strategy, but read it for yourself 🤷
The answer is hard: No, this is absolutely not a buy. Lemonade (LMND) is currently one of the wildest battlegrounds on Wall Street. Despite "good" quarterly figures, the share price has plummeted in recent weeks (from over USD 90 to currently around USD 54).
Here are the fresh, unadorned facts (as at the end of February 2026), run directly through the quality and cash flow filters:
Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E): Negative (The company incurred a bottom-line net loss of over USD 165 million in 2025).
Price-cash flow ratio (KCV): Negative (Operationally, the company is still burning cash over the year).
Price-sales ratio (P/S ratio): approx. 5.3 (market capitalization of just under USD 4 billion with annual sales of around USD 738 million).
Price-to-book value ratio (P/BV): approx. 7.4.
Dividend yield: 0.00 %.
The reality check
1. the core quality formula (sales growth + operating margin)
Here we are experiencing a statistical optical illusion that is extremely dangerous:
Sales growth: an outstanding 53 % in the last quarter. They really are growing like weeds.
Operating margin: Deep red at approx. -22 % (EBIT margin for the year).
The score: 53 + (-22) = 31.
At first glance, this would be a score of > 25 and therefore "very good". However, this growth comes at an extremely high price. The company continues to lose operating cash with every dollar it earns.
2. the cash flow quality formula
In its latest quarterly report, Lemonade celebrates the fact that it achieved a "positive adjusted free cash flow" of USD 37 million in the fourth quarter. The word "adjusted" is the devil here. Subtract share-based compensation (shareholder dilution) and other gimmicks and you are left with a company that still does not generate a clean, sustainable cash pool on a GAAP basis that would justify an FCF yield of an attractive >5%.
3. the iron exclusion criterion (the death sentence for the share)
The hard exclusion filter applies here without ifs and buts:
Operating margin permanently < 5%: Check. Sie ist tief negativ.
Keine Dividende (geschweige denn Cashflow-gedeckt): Check.
Story > Numbers: absolute check. Lemonade is selling the fantastic story of completely destroying the traditional insurance industry with AI, algorithms and telematics. The story is brilliant, the marketing is world class. But the hard figures show a company that is still deep in the red and is only vaguely predicting a positive full-year EBITDA for 2027.
Conclusion (Tacheles)
Lemonade is the classic "story stock without substance". Anyone who buys here is hoping that the AI revolution in the insurance market will become profitable faster than the money is eaten up.
For a genuine, qualitative investment with substance, the stock falls through the cracks. If your friend is a thrill seeker and wants to use the thing like your MindMed position as a pure lottery ticket for the farthest, wildest edge of the "playground" side - okay. But as a genuine investment filtered by hard numbers: hands off!
The answer is hard: No, this is absolutely not a buy. Lemonade (LMND) is currently one of the wildest battlegrounds on Wall Street. Despite "good" quarterly figures, the share price has plummeted in recent weeks (from over USD 90 to currently around USD 54).
Here are the fresh, unadorned facts (as at the end of February 2026), run directly through the quality and cash flow filters:
Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E): Negative (The company incurred a bottom-line net loss of over USD 165 million in 2025).
Price-cash flow ratio (KCV): Negative (Operationally, the company is still burning cash over the year).
Price-sales ratio (P/S ratio): approx. 5.3 (market capitalization of just under USD 4 billion with annual sales of around USD 738 million).
Price-to-book value ratio (P/BV): approx. 7.4.
Dividend yield: 0.00 %.
The reality check
1. the core quality formula (sales growth + operating margin)
Here we are experiencing a statistical optical illusion that is extremely dangerous:
Sales growth: an outstanding 53 % in the last quarter. They really are growing like weeds.
Operating margin: Deep red at approx. -22 % (EBIT margin for the year).
The score: 53 + (-22) = 31.
At first glance, this would be a score of > 25 and therefore "very good". However, this growth comes at an extremely high price. The company continues to lose operating cash with every dollar it earns.
2. the cash flow quality formula
In its latest quarterly report, Lemonade celebrates the fact that it achieved a "positive adjusted free cash flow" of USD 37 million in the fourth quarter. The word "adjusted" is the devil here. Subtract share-based compensation (shareholder dilution) and other gimmicks and you are left with a company that still does not generate a clean, sustainable cash pool on a GAAP basis that would justify an FCF yield of an attractive >5%.
3. the iron exclusion criterion (the death sentence for the share)
The hard exclusion filter applies here without ifs and buts:
Operating margin permanently < 5%: Check. Sie ist tief negativ.
Keine Dividende (geschweige denn Cashflow-gedeckt): Check.
Story > Numbers: absolute check. Lemonade is selling the fantastic story of completely destroying the traditional insurance industry with AI, algorithms and telematics. The story is brilliant, the marketing is world class. But the hard figures show a company that is still deep in the red and is only vaguely predicting a positive full-year EBITDA for 2027.
Conclusion (Tacheles)
Lemonade is the classic "story stock without substance". Anyone who buys here is hoping that the AI revolution in the insurance market will become profitable faster than the money is eaten up.
For a genuine, qualitative investment with substance, the stock falls through the cracks. If your friend is a thrill seeker and wants to use the thing like your MindMed position as a pure lottery ticket for the farthest, wildest edge of the "playground" side - okay. But as a genuine investment filtered by hard numbers: hands off!
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•@Tenbagger2024 try now
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@Raketentoni goes , what did you do?
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•@Tenbagger2024 were the privacy settings so stalkers like you can't find me 😂😂😂 no fun, it's fine now. Thanks for the tip. I'm glad. If you want my opinion soon, just mark it 🙃 Greetings from 🇩🇰
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@Raketentoni I don't like you anymore and your prompt makes every stock bad for me😉😂. All joking aside, I think that because of the prompt, all my stocks that are trimmed purely for short-term maximum return will fail your check.
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•@Raketentoni Are you from Denmark?
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@Multibagger That could happen, I just invest differently. I'm pursuing a clear barbell strategy with cash flow. At the moment I also have a lot of cash, waiting for the Iran attack to buy 😬
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•@Raketentoni Thank you for the review. The good marketing must have caught me too, as I think this story of the AI-supported sector is strong. The expansion to other countries and insurance areas is also still in full development, so I saw potential there.
Surely your system can't incorporate such progress, as it's only part of the story being sold.
I'm a little unsure now 🙈
Surely your system can't incorporate such progress, as it's only part of the story being sold.
I'm a little unsure now 🙈
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