How do you make almost 8600% plus in one year? You buy a company $AXTI (-13,96%) that the market declared dead at USD 1.23 and that suddenly has a monopoly on a technology that the AI world desperately needs. Anyone who bought AXT Inc. at the bottom with play money can now pay off their house cold turkey at a price of around USD 106.80. This is not an investment for retirement, this is the most extreme form of Side B on our barbell, which has hit the absolute jackpot.
Disclamer: I was invested until 5 days ago and unfortunately had to sell the position from the German portfolio due to the move to Denmark. But don't worry, it was only play money at the time and I had already taken my profit out after 100%. In the end, it is the best performing stock I have ever had apart from the hydrogen era :) But don't worry, I didn't take 8000% with me either :(
It's funny that the share was never introduced here :)
1. what the company does
AXT grows wafers from indium phosphide (InP) and gallium arsenide (GaAs). This is the absolute bottleneck for the AI revolution. The massive amounts of data in AI data centers require optical connections (transceivers), and their lasers only work with the material of $AXTI (-13,96%)
2 The moat (The Chinese minefield)
AXT manufactures almost all of its products in China. The moat is therefore located in the middle of a geopolitical powder keg. If China stops exports, AXT will be on the front line of the economic war. It was this extreme risk that caused the share price to plummet to USD 1.23 - and made today's 8600% opportunity possible in the first place.
3. the bare facts & key figures
- ISIN: US00246W1036
- Current share price:
~ 106.80 USD (approx. 98.00 EUR) - Market capitalization:
~ USD 5.93 billion - Dividend yield:
0,00 % - Balance sheet: Following the massive rise in the share price and the new billion-dollar valuation, the risk of dilution threatening the company's existence has been completely eliminated for the time being.
4. chart analysis of the last few months
The share has set its sights on the 52-week high. Exploding from USD 1.23 to this level is a parabolic ride that is almost unparalleled in history. The momentum is gigantic, but brutal intraday fluctuations are completely normal at this level.
5. the ice-cold formula check (quality & cash flow)
- The core quality formula: We expect massive sales growth as AI demand fills the order book to the roof. The operating margin is turning sharply positive due to full capacity utilization in the factories. You are currently scratching the Tech Olympusas the operating business is red-hot.
- The cash flow quality formula: You need to invest massively in new capacity (CapEx). The FCF yield is important for our defensive Side A a knock-out criterion, but for the Side B acceptable as long as this extreme growth justifies the cash burn.
6. future prospects & catalysts
As long as Microsoft, Google and Meta pump billions into AI infrastructure, faster and faster optical transceivers will be needed. Without AXT's InP wafers, there are no data highways. That's the only fuel keeping this course rocket flying right now.
7 Competition & market environment
There are hardly any competitors who can supply InP wafers in this purity and scale. The market is small, but has suddenly become absolutely systemically relevant thanks to AI networking.
8. special entry zones (the "Bargain Hunter's List")
Anyone who buys after an 8600% rise is playing pure FOMO and taking full risk.
- Zone 1 (the momentum ride): ~ USD 95.00 to USD 100.00. This is where you enter when the market takes a short breath intraday, but the AI trend continues to glow.
- Zone 2 (the reality check): < USD 80.00. If the AI hype undergoes a real correction, the speculative bottom where analysts originally saw the value begins here.
9. profit margins & scalability
Margins are currently scaling brutally because the fixed costs of the factories are minimal at full capacity. Every additional wafer that rolls off the production line is almost pure profit.
10. the geopolitical risk (the elephant in the room)
The absolute knock-out criterion. An export ban from China and the almost USD 6 billion market capitalization disappears into thin air faster than you can press "Sell".
11. the voices from the engine room (what the CEO says) CEO Morris Young is extremely bullish and proud of the turnaround. He sees AXT at the absolute beginning of a multi-year investment cycle for AI infrastructure. His key message: the copper frontier has been reached, the optical era has begun, and AXT is supplying the monopoly material.
12. the voices of the analysts
Wall Street ignored the share for years. Now they are panting after the share price with red heads. Almost all original price targets have been pulverized. Analysts are currently pricing in the absolute best-case scenario and completely ignoring the geopolitical risks because FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is dominating the market.
13 Mr. Prompt's ice-cold conclusion (The 8000% reality check)
$$AXTI (-13,96%) has on the defensive Side A (income core) has lost nothing, absolutely nothing. But for the aggressive Side B it is the prime example of a lottery ticket that has hit the jackpot. From USD 1.23 to over USD 106 in one year is pure madness. Anyone who gets in now is buying an extreme drop and needs a stomach of steel.
Congratulations to those who were at the bottom! Secure your profits, pay off the house and let the rest go as an ice-cold free ride!
@Multibagger Did you know them?
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin
@Tenbagger2024 and all the others :)
