ADYEN H1 2025 Earnings Report

Nova · 2025-08-14T08:40:05.867460Z

$ADYEN Summary by Gemini: Financial Performance (H1 2025 vs. H1 2024): Net Revenue: Increased by 20% to €1.09 billion (21% on a constant currency basis)- estimates were 1.11B (MISS) Net Income: Grew by 17% to €480.96 million. Processed Volume: Increased by 5% to €649 billion. Excluding a single large-volume customer, processed volume was up 23%. - Estimates were €662.19B (MISS) EBITDA: Rose 28% to €543.7 million. EBITDA Margin: Improved to 50%, up from 46% in the prior year. Earnings per share (EPS): Grew to €15.22 from €13.15. Key Business Drivers: The company's growth was primarily driven by increasing its share of business with existing customers. The Digital processed volume decreased by 9%, but increased 18% when excluding a single large-volume customer. The growth was tempered by changes to U.S. tariffs, which particularly affected large online retail merchants headquartered in the APAC region. Unified Commerce volume increased by 35%. Platforms processed volume increased by 20% (or 59% excluding eBay). Outlook for 2025 and 2026: Adyen now expects its full-year 2025 net revenue growth to be broadly in line with the first half's performance, as the previously anticipated acceleration is now considered unlikely due to lower-than-expected market volume growth. The company expects EBITDA margin to expand in 2025, but at a more moderate rate than in 2024. For fiscal year 2026, Adyen aims for annual net revenue growth between the low-twenties and high-twenties percent and an EBITDA margin above 50% First market reaction was almost -20%, -16.5% as of this writing. My interpretation: Missing estimates for a company as as highly priced as ADYEN (~50P/E) is deadline in the current market. The selloff is thus unsurprising. Margins were already good and improved further. The large-volume customer (not sure which one this is, ADYEN never specified it) leaving was already known and not neccesarily a bad thing as they got way lower margins. I'm still optimistic about ADYENs moat and future perspective and see the current price as a good moment to add or start a position. I do expect price targets to decrease as their growth appears to decrease. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!

$ADYEN (-5,46%)

Summary by Gemini:

Financial Performance (H1 2025 vs. H1 2024):

Net Revenue: Increased by 20% to €1.09 billion (21% on a constant currency basis)- estimates were 1.11B (MISS)
Net Income: Grew by 17% to €480.96 million.
Processed Volume: Increased by 5% to €649 billion. Excluding a single large-volume customer, processed volume was up 23%. - Estimates were €662.19B (MISS)
EBITDA: Rose 28% to €543.7 million.
EBITDA Margin: Improved to 50%, up from 46% in the prior year.
Earnings per share (EPS): Grew to €15.22 from €13.15.

Key Business Drivers:

The company's growth was primarily driven by increasing its share of business with existing customers.
The Digital processed volume decreased by 9%, but increased 18% when excluding a single large-volume customer. The growth was tempered by changes to U.S. tariffs, which particularly affected large online retail merchants headquartered in the APAC region.
Unified Commerce volume increased by 35%.
Platforms processed volume increased by 20% (or 59% excluding eBay).

Outlook for 2025 and 2026:

Adyen now expects its full-year 2025 net revenue growth to be broadly in line with the first half's performance, as the previously anticipated acceleration is now considered unlikely due to lower-than-expected market volume growth.
The company expects EBITDA margin to expand in 2025, but at a more moderate rate than in 2024.
For fiscal year 2026, Adyen aims for annual net revenue growth between the low-twenties and high-twenties percent and an EBITDA margin above 50%

First market reaction was almost -20%, -16.5% as of this writing.

My interpretation:

Missing estimates for a company as as highly priced as ADYEN (~50P/E) is deadline in the current market. The selloff is thus unsurprising.
Margins were already good and improved further. The large-volume customer (not sure which one this is, ADYEN never specified it) leaving was already known and not neccesarily a bad thing as they got way lower margins.
I'm still optimistic about ADYENs moat and future perspective and see the current price as a good moment to add or start a position. I do expect price targets to decrease as their growth appears to decrease.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!