1Semana·

Asymmetric potential

$3350 (-4,11%) And the next installment. Congratulations to everyone who waited until here - it could have turned earlier. Personally, I already liked the share at the same price in February, when it was fundamentally even "worse". My first purchases were the equivalent of less than €1 last year.


The private international share offering will end soon, after which the interests of many current "shorties" and existing shareholders are likely to be aligned. This is likely to raise over a billion USD, around 10,000 BTC. A potential 50% increase in the treasury.


Current mNAV at 1.3, below the slow giant strategy. Fully diluted mNAV not much higher. BTC holdings 73x (!) as high as current debt. Have fun waiting for BTC to fall that low.


With Japan an incredibly yield-hungry environment that is likely to scramble for more products similar to Strategy.


The prerequisites: People are convinced of BTC itself and see no risk in the management team. Especially compared to Strategy, the latter is actually an advantage for me.


What do you think of the share? Have you already bought it or are you staying away from the dirt? :D


$BTC (+2,17%)
$MSTR (+6,12%)
$ALTBG (-7,1%)
$SWC

09.09
335
Comprado x350 em € 3,633
€ 1.271,50
19
30 Comentários

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I had already bought them once at €4.95 and sold them at just under 90%. Then I started collecting them again at €4.80 using a savings plan.
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But she hasn't even filmed yet, has she?
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@Iwamoto That's true, of course. You just have to read the post again at the end of the year 😄
For me, waiting for a bottom to form with the volatility with most of my "powder" is simply too risky
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Good job, yes I'm holding at avg 5.7€ didn't avg down this time, don't have spare cash to do that lol. Should start to go up from today as you can see because the offering was finished.
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1Semana
But the knife is still falling! 😬

I confess, I don't quite understand the idea of these staking companies. Why buy an mNAV >1 at all? If I want BTC, I buy BTC. If I want leveraged BTC, I buy leveraged certificates.
In the end, the same fate threatens here as with classic holding companies, where the NAV is usually 0.5-0.8. I think that would also make sense for BTC Holdings, as the management risk and administrative costs would have to be deducted.
So I wouldn't be surprised if Metaplanet's share price triples again. 🤷
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@Epi well, the premium results from the fact that institutional investors can invest in the crypto market through such BTC/Ether etc holdings. At least that was the explanation on the Alles Auf Aktien podcast from Welt. They have restrictions and guidelines according to which they cannot invest directly in such assets...
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1Semana
@Klein-Anleger1 Yes, that was the justification for Microstrategy before the BTC ETF! It makes perfect sense. In the meantime, however, BTC vehicles are a dime a dozen. And the SEC also wants to treat BTC as a normal asset. In Germany, there has long been no objective reason to buy a holding AG instead of BTC.
Perhaps things are still different in other countries. But if there are also adjustments to BTC there, what justification do holding AGs have at all? 🤷
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@Epi then we don't need them 😉 you're right! But until the Titanic sinks, we'll still be gambling here... 🥲
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@Epi The fact that I can't spontaneously shake my reasons out of my sleeve in detail shows me that I need to underpin my conviction even more firmly. But:

Broken down, I would say that both taking on your own debt to buy BTC, or choosing a treasury instead, basically has the same thing in mind: short fiat.
That's exactly the difference between BTC "holdings" and others: The benchmark is BTC and thus more constant than anything else. That's why I think the fundamental attitude towards BTC is the decisive factor.
In addition, there are the possibilities that BTC can offer as collateral for financial products that have not yet been explored. If you look at it this way, you might invest in later Bitcoin banks in a geographically diversified way with Treasuries.

Management and geographical risks must be taken into account. However, I see both as a premium or opportunity with this company. Certainly the taxation of BTC in Japan will not remain at over 50% forever, but of course this is currently an additional huge argument for proxy plays.
The reason I don't just take on debt myself to buy BTC is simply that I can't do it as well and on such good terms and with such a variety of products. And of all treasuries, I think Metaplanet does it best.
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1Semana
@mitpommes Debt for BTC is basically short fiat, of course. Isn't every investment in tangible assets (shares, commodities, real estate, etc.) basically short fiat? 😏

I think the alternative for us as private investors is to buy BTC HoldingAGs with a 30-50% premium or BTC financial instruments, e.g. 2x factor certificates on BTC Future <security:n/a:DE000MH000P6>
I find the latter much cheaper and more transparent.

The underlying idea with BTC remains unaffected by this decision.
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läuft 🚀🫣
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How right you were :)
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Thanks for the tip! I hadn't even noticed it down there and only became aware of it through your post. I had been looking to get in for a while but unfortunately was only able to buy for €200 with a buy-in of €3.71. But better than nothing. :-D (+ 21,02 %)
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gg this
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Uh dangerous share
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May I ask what your current average buy-in is?
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@schlimmschlimm Almost exactly €5 - but this is also due to the fact that I sold a lot on the morning of the €20+ and on the steep way there and the first favorable entry prices fell out of the calculation due to FIFO. I had then slowly started to enter again at €8
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@mitpommes I'm just unsure, would like to reduce the buy-in even further through additional purchases, but am actually already full (amount of shares in the portfolio, not alcohol). I'm currently at 6. 6 is always good, but not necessarily with Metaplanet... ;-) I don't want to throw more good money after bad.
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Where did it turn, which indicator are you using to see this? I'm confused... I mean, they've already dived a long way, but I don't see a bottom. What do you see there?
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@BeachPlease Delete the "earlier", that's what I meant. As I said above, it is too risky for me to wait for a longer bottom formation with the largest tranches, given the volatility that the share has enjoyed on the upside.
As far as indicators for this tranche are concerned, we are at the previous high and currently extremely oversold. Personally, I expect it to approach €3.20 at most.
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Aha, about the chart itself and the RSI, all clear 🙂 I built myself an alarm when the 1h SMI crosses -40. Thanks for the heads up by the way
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@mitpommes I went in earlier, it better not work 😅
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@BeachPlease Depending on the time horizon, I'm quite relaxed 😄 I'm not in it as a trade. Even if you can be optimistic about Q4, I suppose
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@mitpommes I would also want to stay in for a quarter, looks good so far
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@mitpommes Has ignited! 🤑❤️
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@BeachPlease but unfortunately the rocket ran out of fuel quickly :D ... up and down, again and again ^^ In the long run, however, top ^_^
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@Helli of the volatility you need conviction :D I had already said privately yesterday that I wouldn't get too excited about the share too soon
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@Helli Yep, it was pump and dump too soon 😂 Let's see if there's still organic growth to come, but I'm confident :)
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What is below mNAV of 1?
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