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NextEra Energy Ahead of Its Quarterly Earnings Report – Will Its Long-Term Growth Trajectory Remain Intact?

On July 24, $NEE (+0,09%) its quarterly earnings. According to the current analyst consensus on Invesging.com, the following estimates are expected for earnings per share (EPS) and revenue:

EPS: $1.10
Revenue: $8.19B

Similar to what I’ve seen recently with $IBE (+0,05%) , even with $NEE (+0,09%) I’m less focused on revenue and EPS and more on the quality of the company’s operational performance. I’m particularly interested in adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow, capital expenditures (CAPEX), and the trend in net debt.

I am particularly interested in the business of Florida Power & Light (FPL) as well as further project progress at NextEra Energy Resources, the world’s largest developer of wind and solar projects. I will also be paying close attention to the size of the project backlog, as this says a great deal about future growth potential. Following a strong first quarter, management has already signaled its intention to target the upper end of the full-year forecast of $3.92–$4.02 EPS and to aim for long-term earnings growth of more than 8% per year through 2032. The key will be whether this outlook is confirmed once again.

Another point I will be monitoring closely is management’s outlook on the financing environment. As a capital-intensive company, $NEE (+0,09%) reliant on attractive financing options. At the same time, persistently higher interest rates could impact the returns on new projects.

I’m also curious to see whether management will reaffirm its assessment of rising electricity demand driven by data centers and AI infrastructure. This trend, in particular, could develop into an additional growth driver over the long term and further bolster the already substantial project backlog.

The topic of capital returns also remains of interest. $NEE (+0,09%) It is one of the few utilities that combines attractive dividend growth with above-average operating growth. The market does not currently anticipate a new share buyback program. Instead, the focus is likely to remain on expanding the infrastructure. At the same time, management is sticking to its goal of increasing the dividend by about 10% initially and then by approximately 6% annually through 2028. For me, it is precisely this combination of growth and rising dividends that is a key component of the investment story.

Analysts also remain largely positive. According to Investing.com, 14 analysts currently recommend buying the stock, 7 rate it as “Hold,” and only 1 analyst issues a “Sell” recommendation. The average price target remains above the current share price. However, given the now-ambitious valuation, the market is likely to react less to a slight beat in revenue or EPS and more to whether $NEE (+0,09%) it can confirm its long-term growth outlook and maintain its high pace of investment.

Personally, I expect another solid quarter. The key factor for me will be whether $NEE (+0,09%) manages to strike a balance between strong growth, high investment activity, and a continued shareholder-friendly capital allocation. It is precisely this combination that makes $NEE (+0,09%) it one of the most exciting companies in the global utilities sector right now. It’s currently $NEE (+0,09%)

on my watchlist. If the quarterly results confirm the company’s growth trajectory and, at the same time, a more attractive valuation emerges, it could $NEE (+0,09%) it could become a serious candidate for my portfolio in the future

My key points to watch for the quarterly results

• Trends in operating cash flow and free cash flow

• Confirmation or adjustment of the full-year forecast

• Growth at Florida Power & Light and NextEra Energy Resources

• Trends in the project backlog and capital expenditures (CAPEX)

• Comments on the financing environment and electricity demand from AI and data centers

• Capital allocation: dividend growth, debt, and investment strategy

~ Not investment advice ~

13 Comentários

Dividenden@Rente@userc7b02065b8a7407b

"Sorry, but I don't get the hype surrounding Nextera. It’s been trading sideways since 2021, while Iberdrola has doubled in value during that time. As for U.S. stocks, I hold AMERICAN Electric Power. It’s up 60% since 2021, after all. Both stocks show stable performance and strong investment activity."

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DividendenPapa@DividendenPapa

@userc7b02065b8a7407b I can certainly understand that. Looking purely at stock price performance since 2021, $IBE and $AEP have clearly outperformed so far. That’s precisely why all three companies are actually on my watchlist.

With $NEE, however, I see the investment case less in past stock performance and more in the combination of the regulated utility business through Florida Power & Light and the growth potential of NextEra Energy Resources. Added to this are the ambitious investments in grid infrastructure and renewable energy, as well as the long-term goal of profit and dividend growth. The valuation, however, is precisely what has kept me from investing so far.

$IBE I also find $AEP very exciting and have both companies closely on my watchlist. So far, however, I’ve deliberately decided against investing because I’ve recently allocated my capital to other investment ideas. Should a more attractive valuation or entry opportunity arise for any of the three companies, I would definitely reassess my position.

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DividendenMax@DividendenMax

@userc7b02065b8a7407b But a sideways phase with high volatility 😅

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DividendenMax@DividendenMax

A 2.6% dividend yield is also something you'd be happy to take

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Dividenden@Rente@userc7b02065b8a7407b

@DividendenPapa Yes, your arguments are convincing.

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Gomerdoc@Gomerdoc

@userc7b02065b8a7407b $NEE had already reached a new all-time high by the end of April. This was followed by a slight setback after the announcement of plans to acquire rival Dominion Energy for a whopping $67 billion. This would create the world’s largest publicly traded electric utility—though such mega-deals also bring uncertainties. In any case, the boards of directors of both companies have now approved the merger plans—another step in a process that, according to market observers, could take between 12 and 18 months.

And the stock price:
These are just minor fluctuations right now. The question is simply whether you’re a long-term investor or a trader. $IBE hasn’t come close to matching this price performance over the past 40 years. Between 2007 and 2012, the stock price also moved almost entirely sideways. But if you hold such stocks a bit longer—ten years, 20 years—then the entry point doesn’t matter at all, and the personal dividend yield is enormous.

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DividendenPapa@DividendenPapa

@Gomerdoc Thanks for your insight! I basically agree with you on the long-term investment horizon. If the investment thesis holds up over many years, the perfect entry point naturally becomes less important. Still, even as a long-term investor, I try not to buy at the very peak. A good company remains a good company, but in my view, the valuation still influences the long-term return. That’s why I’m currently keeping $NEE on my watchlist and waiting for an opportunity where, in my opinion, the company’s quality and valuation align better.

I’ll also continue to monitor the potential deal. If it goes through as planned and clears the regulatory hurdles, it could further strengthen $NEE ’s long-term position. At the same time, it will be interesting to see what impact this will have on the balance sheet, debt, and capital allocation. That’s exactly why I think the coming quarters will be particularly interesting.

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Dividenden@Rente@userc7b02065b8a7407b

I think your thoughts are good.

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Dividenden@Rente@userc7b02065b8a7407b

I guess I caught someone off guard there. Well, if I’m interpreting the chart correctly, the ATH was nearly €90 in 2022. If you’re comparing a 5-year period, you’re not a trader. Furthermore, companies of similar size in American Electric Power’s peer group have performed similarly to AEP, with comparable balance sheet ratios and dividend yields. Unfortunately, Nextera doesn’t stand out positively here. Of course, investment decisions shouldn’t be based solely on the past, but making comparisons that take future prospects into account (and the past can perhaps give us an idea of how realistic those prospects are) should be part of the craft.

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DividendenPapa@DividendenPapa

@userc7b02065b8a7407b To be honest, I don’t think anyone has caught anyone off guard here. 🙂 It’s exactly these kinds of open discussions with different perspectives that, to me, make Getquin so valuable. As long as the arguments are objective, everyone can take something away from it.

I think, at the core, you’re not as far apart as it might seem at first. For me, the stock’s performance to date is definitely part of the analysis—but more to understand why companies have performed differently and whether that performance was fundamentally justified. I wouldn’t base an investment decision on that alone, though. That’s exactly why I’m currently looking at $NEE alongside $IBE and $AEP. All three have their strengths, but they differ in terms of valuation, growth, regulation, and capital allocation. Ultimately, what matters most to me isn’t which company has outperformed over the past three or five years, but which company offers the most attractive risk-reward ratio today based on its future prospects.

That’s why all three companies are currently on my watchlist. Before I invest, I want to understand why the market values these companies differently and whether, in my view, that valuation is justified.

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Gomerdoc@Gomerdoc

That is incorrect @userc7b02065b8a7407b

NextEra Energy’s (NEE) previous all-time high was $98.75 (intraday high), reached on April 30, 2026. The corresponding record closing price on the same day was $97.17.

Not 2022. In other words, if you had bought the stock in 2022—or hadn’t bought it because “there was no buying opportunity since it was at an ATH”—

You would have missed the opportunity.

And that’s exactly how it’s been since the late 1980s.

OT:
I’d like to attach a long-term chart here—is that possible? Can you embed charts here, and if so, does anyone know how?

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Dividenden@Rente@userc7b02065b8a7407b

@Gomerdoc Yeah, the chart might help. Unfortunately, I don't know how to do that either.

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DividendenPapa@DividendenPapa

@userc7b02065b8a7407b I'm also not aware that you can post a chart as a comment.

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