1D·

German AI value

Hello my dears,

Today I've been looking for another "fallen angel" for you.

AI is here to stay and has also arrived in Germany. By now, word should have gotten around in companies that AI implementation makes working life easier and more efficient.

Even though software shares are not in high demand at the moment, I see momentum emerging in the share I am presenting to you today.

Perhaps investors have realized that this software should only benefit from AI.

Dear readers, what do you think?

I look forward to many comments.

(@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin , @Klein-Anleger )

$EXL (+0,39%)

EXASOL AG is a company based in Germany. The company is active in the field of analytical database management software. The company's product is Exasol, a memory-oriented, column-oriented, relational database management system.

Number of employees: 157

Whether as a standalone data warehouse, analytics accelerator or AI/ML model enabler, Exasol ensures reliable, high-performance analytics in both on-premises and hybrid environments.

Madeleine Corneli leads product development for AI and ML at Exasol. She focuses on opening up critical AI and ML use cases for customers and expanding Exasol's value proposition. She focuses on classic machine learning and generative AI across all industries. Madeleine has extensive experience in analytics and deeply understands how data can empower people and solve problems.

Exasol positions itself in the market as a specialist in high-speed analytics. The core of its business model is an in-memory database technology designed to process complex data queries extremely quickly. Exasol solves the widespread problem of slow business intelligence dashboards for customers. A central component of the current portfolio is "Exasol Espresso". This solution acts as a plug-and-play accelerator for existing BI tools such as Tableau or Microsoft Power BI, without customers having to replace their entire existing data infrastructure. This approach significantly lowers the barriers to entry for new customers, as it does not require costly "rip-and-replace" projects, but integrates seamlessly into existing cloud or on-premise architectures.

On January 26, Montega AG added the share to its rating with a "buy" recommendation and a target price of EUR 3.60. In their assessment, the experts pointed out, among other things, that Exasol has been able to report annual sales growth of 12.9% since 2019. After a transition phase, the profitable and more predictable growth path could be resumed. The analysis states: "In the future, the expected sales growth (CAGR 2024-2031e: 7.9%) should lead to pronounced earnings growth (EBITDA CAGR 2024-2031e: 29.0%) due to the strong scaling of the cost base with high marginal margins. According to our DCF model, these assumptions result in a fair value of EUR 3.60 per share. In our view, the current EV/EBITDA of 13.0 (2025e) does not reflect the strong earnings growth with high cash conversion due to negative working capital and minimal CAPEX requirements."

On the chart, the breakout above the GD 20 and a resistance line on January 26 already gave two procyclical buy signals.

Exasol_Trading_Update_9M_2025.pdf

EUR in millions of EUR

Estimates

Year Turnover Change

2024 39,63 11,95 %

2025 42,15 6,36 %

2026 41,65 -1,19 %

2027 45,85 10,08 %

Year EBIT Change

2023 -8,3 44,3 %

2024 0,2324 102,83 %

2025 2,4 908,78 %

2026 3,45 43,75 %

2027 5,3 53,62 %

Year Net result Change

2023 -8,217 45,22 %

2024 0,2293 102,79 %

2025 2,2 859,27 %

2026 3,05 38,64 %

2027 4,65 52,46 %

Year Net debt CAPEX

2023 -13,3 0,1

2024 -15 0,18

2025 -18,6 0,2

2026 -21,9 0,25

2027 27,1 0,25

Year Free cash flow Change

2023 -6,392 56,1

2024 1,203 118,82 %

2025 3,6 199,25 %

2026 3,35 -6,94 %

2027 5,15 53,73 %

Year EBIT margin ROE

2023 -23,45 % -166,44 %

2024 0,6 % 5,11 %

2025 5,69 % 42,8 %

2026 8,28 % 41,9 %

2027 11,56 % 41,35 %

Year Earnings per share Change

2023 -0,3056 50,25 %

2024 0,0085 102,78 %

2025 0,08 841,18 %

2026 0,115 43,75 %

2027 0,175 52,17 %

Year P/E ratio PEG

2023 -10.3x 0.2x

2024 274x -3x

2025 34.4x 0x

2026 23.9x 0.5x

2027 15.7x 0.3x

Market value 73.11

Number of shares (in thousands) 26,584

Date of publication 18.03.2025

$EXL (+0,39%)

26 Comentários

Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

Wow, thank you!

I would like to make a few comments (based on my own research) and thoughts: I think it's very good that you seem to be sustainably profitable now. I like the focus on ARR, which makes for good planning. The focus sectors with finance, healthcare and telecommunications, GDPR compliance and processing of data in German data centers are of course great from a German and European perspective. It's a micro-cap, of course, but there's often a lot of upside. The only thing I don't like are paid analysts, but it's not that unusual to pay money for buy recommendations on this scale.

Which additions would be important to me (also from professional practice):

- contrary to previous years, there currently seem to be no (!!!) SBC anymore. This was exorbitantly high in the past, so it's very positive that countermeasures have been taken here.

- I would like to emphasize the partnership with MariaDB. Maria DB is an SQL alternative, founded by the former brains behind MySQL (Oracle). It is completely open source and particularly popular on Linux servers, as it is fully compatible with other software.

- From a professional point of view, just to provide a benchmark: you are the server data analysis partner of FinanzInformatik (FI), the system house of the savings banks! In other words, data from >300 savings banks, building societies, state banks and insurers is run via the servers for which Exasol's data analysis software is supplied here. This suits the FI, where you always want to be as self-sufficient and sovereign as possible on your own servers (which is of course also obvious with highly sensitive financial data). We are talking about ~50 million end customers whose data can be regularly analyzed here. In the past, FI has often taken over companies with which it had a long-standing partnership and where there were certain dependencies. I find this highly interesting and speaks for Exasol's market position when the largest financial group in Germany relies on its solution.

In my view, the last two points in particular (which I would be happy to add to your customer overview) could be the game changer here! Go to the top of the watch list and buy as soon as cash is available!

There's real potential here in my view. Maybe $INOD will be removed from my possible buys, as I want to reduce US a bit anyway.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

23H

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin
Thank you my dear. A very valuable addition. My idea was a good fit.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

22H

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin I am already in this area at $GFT, $EXLS and $INOD. That's why I probably won't invest. But otherwise I would be involved

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

14H

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin
I think I have too many software shares in my portfolio

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

14H

@Tenbagger2024 what can i say?😂🤷🏼‍♂️

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Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

Wait what 😮 that's extreme! Rarely seen such a good risk/reward ratio! Rapid earnings growth and the valuation is pretty cheap! Straight to the WL! Thank you very much! I think this is the most interesting C-R ratio I've seen in the segment for a long time! Unless I haven't understood something about the share... 👍

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Klein-Anleger
Let's see what @Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin says. Probably a missing moat or something 🙈

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Klein-Anleger
But the fundamental figures are really nice. Also how the margins are increased

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SemiGrowth@SemiGrowth

@Klein-Anleger Well, it's more of a base effect. Top Line doesn't grow by 10%. With the low margins, you're quickly back in the red.
Estimates have been revised downwards for years

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Liebesspieler@Liebesspieler

22H

First of all, a huge thank you to @Tenbagger2024 for yet another great analysis ❤️❤️❤️

However, like @SemiGrowth, I am very skeptical about this stock. The numbers look clean at first glance, but they assume that margins will rise sharply, even though sales growth remains very manageable. This is where I become skeptical, because without volume or real pricing power, this leverage is difficult to maintain. For me, the high ROE figures are more a calculation effect from the small equity base than a quality feature. The P/E ratio and PEG also only look favorable because they are based on a very optimistic profit path. The bottom line for me is that this is not a structural quality case, but a fragile turnaround with many ifs.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

22H

@Liebesspieler Thank you, my dear, for this important comment. I would also like to add for the USER that there is also some risk involved here.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

22H

@Liebesspieler And therefore, if at all, you should only invest with a small position. Because there are also some ?? involved. Yes, I'm not so happy with the turnover either, because it will also decline next year. It's great that you pointed this out. And thank you, dear

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EugeneKrabs@Danicx13

Off to the WL ✔️👍🏼

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Cai-pirinha@Cai-pirinha

danke!

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Wolle@HyperTrend

I bought the share a year ago. Am slightly in the red but holding on to it. Thanks for your contribution.

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Thomas Hauck@tomtom38

23H

The share price has fallen as recurring revenues have decreased and contracts have been terminated. Sales may be weaker again in 2026

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Christoph@ChrisBizz

21H

👍🏻

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Chris@Multibagger

Once again a stock where I was way too early. I got in at €4 and got out at €3.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Multibagger
Then in again

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Krush82@Krush82

@Multibagger You can't keep your fingers to yourself either 😅😉

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PikaPika0105@PikaPika0105

How did the -88% come about?

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@PikaPika0105 after the IPO?

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PikaPika0105@PikaPika0105

@Tenbagger2024 overall. Was the valuation simply far too high?

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@PikaPika0105
Yes, and not profitable

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ashish J.@JaqenH

15H

It's a basic Data warehouse not even remotely connected to AI. SAP has better AI integration than Exasol.

Btw I doubt Adidas keeps any data on Exasol. I used to work for Adidas and we had previously used SAP BW and then it moved to Databricks.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

15H

@JaqenH
Thank you, that is very interesting

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