Hello community, on October 15th, I invested in $OKLO and $RGTI (-0,75%) , two bets on the energy of the future and quantum computing. Today, I see a -50% loss on that bet. I know what you’re thinking: "Pure madness." Perhaps in the short term, it is. But let me explain why, instead of running away, I am deepening my analysis and why I am staying in this investment.
📉 THE PERFECT STORM: What has happened since my entry?
CORRECTION OF EUPHORIC VALUATIONS
- In October, $OKLO was above $190, valued as if it were already producing energy, while it is still in the "pre-revenue" stage.
- The market did its job: deflating the speculative bubble and bringing prices back to more realistic levels.
INSIDER SELLING (On OKLO)
- The CEO and CFO sold shares in late 2025.
- The market interpreted this as a lack of short-term confidence.
- In reality, these are often scheduled sales for tax reasons or personal liquidity. Technical Note: These were executed under pre-planned Rule 10b5-1 plans adopted months in advance, which mitigates the negative connotation.
DISAPPOINTING RESULTS AND DELAYS (On RGTI)
- November report: revenues -18%, operating losses increasing.
- Postponement of the 108-qubit "Cepheus-1" system to Q1 2026. However, Rigetti has just confirmed reaching 99% fidelity on two-qubit gates, a crucial step for commercial launch.
- The market punished the lack of immediate progress.
ADVERSE MACRO CONTEXT
- Strong global volatility and "risk-off" sentiment.
- Flight from growth and speculative stocks toward safer assets.
- Innovative sectors like quantum and advanced nuclear were the first to be liquidated.
STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES
- High burn rate: both are burning cash for R&D.
- Fear of dilution: dread of new share issuances.
- Lack of short-term catalysts: no revolutionary news to support prices.
💡 WHY, DESPITE EVERYTHING, AM I MORE CONVINCED THAN BEFORE?
TIME HORIZON: 2028-2030, NOT 2025
- I didn't buy to make a profit by Christmas 2025. My horizon is 5-10 years, when:
- The first "Aurora" reactors from Oklo will be operational (2027/2028).
- Quantum advantage will become commercially relevant.
SOLID STRATEGIC FUNDAMENTALS
- For $OKLO: Strategic partnerships with the U.S. Department of Energy (in January 2026, a new OTA agreement was signed for the radioisotope pilot plant). A clear business model: compact and sustainable micro-reactors. A concrete solution to the energy problem of AI data centers. A team with extensive experience in the nuclear sector.
- For $RGTI (-0,75%):
$8.4 million order from India for a 108-qubit system (proof of real market demand). Proprietary hardware and high-level expertise. A pipeline of academic and corporate clients. One of the purest listed players in quantum computing.
THE MARKET DISCOUNTS THE FUTURE, I BET ON IT
- Current valuations reflect fear and uncertainty.
- Clean energy and quantum computing sectors will grow exponentially in the coming decades.
- When the fear fades, prices will reflect the true potential.
THE "CRASH" IS AN OPPORTUNITY
- Using DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging), I am lowering my average entry cost.
- Historically, the greatest opportunities are created during times of peak fear.
- I am monitoring technical progress, not just prices.
🎯 MY STRATEGY NOW
- CONSTANT MONITORING of technological progress.
- DCA ON DIPS to reduce the average price.
- FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM, ignoring short-term noise.
- CONTINUOUS RESEARCH on sector developments.
🤔 THE KEY QUESTION The market is testing us: do you believe in the technology or just follow the price? I have made my choice: I believe in the energy revolution of Oklo and the computational revolution of Rigetti. The -50% is part of the journey, not the final destination.
I prefer to be a year early than a day late on revolutions of this magnitude. Those who bought today’s great tech leaders during their early years faced similar drawdowns. Patience is the hardest asset to accumulate, but it is the one that, in the end, generates the greatest return.
How are you managing this test of nerves? Do you believe in the project or have you let the price scare you away? 👇
⚠️ CRUCIAL DISCLAIMER This is not financial advice. Investing in high-potential, high-risk stocks requires: Deep independent research; High volatility tolerance; Long time horizons (5-10 years); The ability to withstand significant losses.
