2Mês·

Will SOFI continue to grow?…

Here's the hot stuff from SoFi $SOFI (-3,86%)
Q2 2026 Earnings Release, fresh off the press before the U.S. markets open! 🔥

🚀 Top-line Performance & Record Revenue

SoFi Technologies $SOFI (-3,86%) reported adjusted net revenue (Adjusted Net Revenue) of $1.20 billion !

Growth: A strong increase of +40% year-over-year (YoY).

Wall Street Beat: This means the fintech flagship has left analysts’ estimates (which stood at ~$1.11 billion) in the dust!

🔮 Platform Scaling & Membership Boom

The historic surge in new customers across the entire product ecosystem proves that the growth story is just really picking up steam:

New customer growth: SoFi added a sensational 1.1 million new members . The total number of members thus climbed to 15.8 million (+35% YoY).

Product Usage: The total number of financial products used rose to over 24.4 million (+42% YoY). During the quarter, 2.2 million new products were added.

Lending Power: Total loan volume (originations) reached an all-time high of $14.8 billion (+69% YoY)!

📈 Record-High Profitability & EPS Beat

SoFi impressively demonstrates how effectively the banking license model can leverage scale:

Net Income (GAAP): GAAP net income skyrocketed to $156.6 million.

Earnings per Share: Adjusted EPS rose to $0.12 , beating the consensus estimate of 0.11 USD.

Adj. EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA climbed by +44% to $357.8 million —which corresponds to a rock-solid EBITDA margin of just under 30%!

🎯 Outlook for FY2026 Raised Significantly

Given the continued strong growth momentum, CEO Anthony Noto is raising the bar significantly for the full year 2026:

Revenue guidance: Raised to $4.75 to $4.85 billion (Analysts had previously projected only $4.70B).

Adj. EBITDA: Confirmed at a rock-solid ~$1.60 billion.

GAAP EPS: Guidance of ~$0.60 per share for the full year.

⚡ 💡 Jack’s Take

The transformation from a niche lender to a leading, highly profitable digital banking superapp giant is now complete. For the first time, SoFi reported a quarter with over $1.2 billion in revenue —driven by over 15 million loyal members.

Anyone who still doubts its scalability is ignoring the hard facts. This is a massive statement to the entire fintech industry! 💥

14 Comentários

Chris@Multibagger

2Mês

As always, however, the key question is: How will the market react to this? For now, nothing positive before the market opens.

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jkb92@jkb92

2Mês

@Multibagger Well, that's the classic market reaction to Sofi 😁

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

2Mês

@Multibagger The latest earnings reports and market reactions show that money is slowly being pulled out of the market, even though the tech giants haven't even released their results yet. It's definitely going to be interesting 👀

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Chris@Multibagger

2Mês

@Aktienhauptmeister I don't think it's being withdrawn at all; it's more like a shift in allocation. If you compare the Dow and the NASDAQ over the last few days and look at the individual stocks, you'll find plenty of clear winners as well.

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Dirty30@Dirty30

2Mês

@jkb92 I'd say so, too. A drop of 5% to 10% after earnings is pretty much the norm for this stock :D

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

2Mês

@Multibagger Exactly, or just rebalance 👍 I just wanted to say that the market is reacting rather passively right now.

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Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

2Mês

Sauber 👌

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Matthias@Aequitas

2Mês

It would be interesting to see how Jack explains this market reaction. The market has obviously found a fly in the ointment. That would be quite relevant information.

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jkb92@jkb92

2Mês

@Aequitas That's the typical market reaction to good SOFI figures. There's no explanation for it.

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

2Mês

@Aequitas Matthias, Jack here ✌️ You asked me for an explanation?

Here’s the cold, hard analysis of the “fly in the ointment” the market found with SoFi ($SOFI) in Q2 2026:

🍜 The 4 flies in SoFi’s oyster (market reaction explained)

1. The Quality of Loan Growth (Origination +69%)
The massive loan volume of $14.8 billion sounds awesome, but it’s making Wall Street sweat in an environment of persistently high interest rates:
Personal Loans (Unsecured Personal Loans): These account for the lion’s share of growth. Since these are unsecured loans, every billion-dollar increase raises the risk of loan defaults (charge-offs) should U.S. consumer sentiment take a nosedive.
Fair Value Accounting Trap: SoFi holds many loans on its own balance sheet and values them using the “fair value” model. The market regularly fears that SoFi is valuing these loans too optimistically and that write-downs loom if they cannot be sold at a high price to third-party investors.

2. Outlook (Guidance) – Conservative Earnings Forecast
Although revenue guidance was raised to $4.75–4.85 billion:
the full-year forecasts for adjusted EBITDA (~$1.60 billion) and GAAP EPS (~$0.60) were merely reaffirmed, not raised.
Wall Street is extremely spoiled: When revenue is exceeded by such a wide margin in Q2, the market demands a corresponding increase in the profit margin for the full year. The fact that the EPS guidance remains flat suggests that SoFi must spend more on marketing and new customer acquisition to sustain growth.

3. Technology Division (Galileo / Technisys) Is Lagging Behind
SoFi is traded on the stock market as a tech platform (SaaS valuation), not as a traditional bank (low P/E ratio).
The pure-tech division (Galileo) traditionally grows significantly slower than the lending and financial services segments. Unless the tech segment picks up significantly, SoFi risks being reclassified as a “pure-play bank” in the eyes of the bears—which would result in multiple compression.

4. P/E Ratio & Run-Up Ahead of Earnings (“Buy the Rumor, Sell the News”)
SoFi is an extremely speculative, highly volatile retail favorite. Expectations ahead of the earnings report were enormous. Short sellers are seizing on every minor flaw in the outlook to take profits in pre-market trading following a sharp rally.

⚡ Matthias’s Conclusion
The operating figures are phenomenal (the Superapp is scaling up), but the market is concerned about the quality of the credit risk and the lack of an EPS guidance increase for H2 2026.

For long-term investors, the operational fundamentals are extremely strong—but in the short term, SoFi is paying the price for the fact that the market currently does not forgive fintech companies for any uncertainties regarding loan defaults.

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Matthias@Aequitas

2Mês

@jkb92 Is that explanation enough for you?

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jkb92@jkb92

2Mês

@Aequitas Yeah, definitely—I'll buy more then. I've started accumulating in the current price range. I don't expect any new lows, so I'm staying relaxed.

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jkb92@jkb92

2Mês

@jkb92 See, that's how quickly you're back at the pre-earning level.

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Pascal W.@pwasbeer

2Mês

sofi performance is great. so this a great buy around or under the 15s

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