There is an interesting commentary in the Handelsblatt today, which I would like to share here (in excerpts).

SAP and Microsoft show what the stock markets are really like

SAP $SAP (-17,07%) publishes good figures for the past year and gives a strong outlook. Only the high growth in the cloud division disappoints the high expectations. The share price promptly falls by 15 percent.

Just like SAP, Microsoft also proves $MSFT (-7,14%)proves that excellent results are no longer enough. The heavyweight loses seven percent. This means that the equivalent of 200 billion euros in stock market value was destroyed in one fell swoop, enough to buy a DAX company the size of Siemens. $SIE (+1,3%) could be bought.

The dotcom bubble began to burst in a similarly turbulent fashion shortly after the turn of the millennium, when companies that were popular with investors at the time, such as Cisco $CSCO (-1,01%)Nokia and AOL were no longer able to meet the ever-increasing expectations.

Now it can be argued that today's high-flyers, unlike the companies of that time, are generating much higher profits in the billions. Shares such as SAP, Microsoft and a number of other popular technology stocks are nowhere near as insanely high as they were back then. However, this does not mean the all-clear for two reasons.

Firstly, many shares in other sectors outside the technology industry are now highly valued after years of very strong stock market gains. This makes the stock markets as a whole vulnerable.

Secondly, there is another serious problem: the flight from the dollar. The world's leading currency is losing value because America is losing investor confidence. The price of gold, which has risen by 100 percent in just one year, is a dramatic sign of these concerns.

In any case, the sharp falls in the share prices of SAP and Microsoft show that shareholders are no longer looking for good news in company balance sheets, as has been the case in recent years, and using this as an opportunity to buy more shares. Instead, the slightest blemishes are causing them to sell shares. This is not a good sign for the state of the stock markets.

Source text (excerpt) & image: Handelsblatt, 29.01.26

I am looking forward to your opinions (there has already been a lot written about the current price reactions in the community).

sap I would be careful again, ki here ki there it is (has been) overvalued anyway, but the competition is strong and the market shares are simply divided up $ORCL (-5,19%)
$NOW (-7,56%)
$CRM (-6,27%) and $SAP (-17,07%) up.

A little wait and see is required, I think, whether Ki can really be monetized as well as expected, because otherwise it is no longer a Ki hype title. $CRM (-6,27%)

$SAP (-17,07%)

What do you think is currently a good start?

Greetings

Plossi 🐴

$RYA (+0,04%)
$UNH (+0,17%)
$GM (+0,74%)
$RTX (+0,49%)
$UPS (+0,95%)
$UNP (+1,66%)
$NOC (+0,82%)
$BA (-1,94%)
$MC (+0,14%)
$TXN (-0,15%)
$STX (-3,31%)
$SSAB A (-4,4%)
$ASML (-1,41%)
$GEV (-4,1%)
$SBUX (-1,11%)
$T (+4,31%)
$GD (-2,05%)
$MSCI (-0,74%)
$META (-1,62%)
$NOW (-7,56%)
$IBM (-2,33%)
$LRCX (-1,62%)
$TSLA (-6,49%)
$MSFT (-7,14%)
$000660
$005930
$SAP (-17,07%)
$ABBN (+7,67%)
$DBK (-2,6%)
$ROG (+3,26%)
$DOW (-5,18%)
$NDAQ (+1,2%)
$LMT (+5,89%)
$CAT (+1,12%)
$TMO (-3,51%)
$HON (+3,99%)
$MA (+2,43%)
$BX (-2,85%)
$WM (-0,5%)
$WDC (-5,45%)
$SNDK
$V (+0,35%)
$AAPL (-0,67%)
$SOFI (-3,08%)
$CL (+1,39%)
$AXP (+0,35%)
$XOM (+1,65%)
$CVX (+1,65%)

Perhaps this is good to know for some of you:

Today I was surprised to see dividend statements suddenly appear in the cash account at TR for $P911 (-0,19%) suddenly appeared in the cash account. I sold the share months ago and would like to forget about it for reasons.

On closer inspection, it turned out that the dividend paid out in 2025 was without tax deduction. Instead, I now received 2 credit notes. The larger part (65%) without tax deduction, the smaller part with tax deduction. That's probably the case, because after a bit of googling I read on the Porsche website that they paid out dividends partly from equity.

Then I had a look at what else was paid out in dividends around that time and I noticed that the dividends from $ALV (+0,57%) and $SAP (-17,07%) there was no tax deduction. I only took random samples, so there could be more shares affected. Let's see if there are more new statements coming soon.

So maybe leave some cash in the account.

After more than 25 years of negotiations, the EU and the South American economic alliance Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay) have concluded a historic free trade agreement. This creates one of the largest free trade zones in the world - with over 700 million people and a combined economic area worth around 22 trillion USD.

This agreement could trigger global economic and stock market effects - for companies, industries and investors.

_________________________

🛃🚢 What will happen to the Mercosur agreement?

• Tariffs on up to 91% of EU exports and 92% of Mercosur exports are to be gradually eliminated.
• The aim is to create a larger single market, better market access, simplified rules and more stable trading conditions between Europe and South America.
• Until now, high tariffs have applied to cars (approx. 35%), machinery (14-20%) and chemical products (up to 18%).

_________________________

📊 Possible effects on the stock market

📈 1. industries with strong exports benefit from higher demand

Europe can sell its products more easily in South America:

• 👩‍🏭 Cars & car parts
• 🏭 Mechanical engineering
• 🧪 Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
• 🪄 Electronics & high-tech

The elimination of customs duties and fewer trade barriers will increase the margins and competitiveness of these industries.

Possible examples of Frofiteurs:

• VW $VOW (+0,34%) BMW $BMW (+0,08%) Daimler $DTG (-2,48%)
• Siemens $SIE (+1,3%)
• BASF $BAS (-0,28%) Covestro $1COV (+0,02%)
• SAP $SAP (-17,07%) , ASML $ASML (-1,41%)

➡️ Expected share price impetus from higher export revenues and capped production costs.

_________________________

🍖 2. agricultural & food sector in focus

The agricultural business is also becoming more closely networked on both sides:

• Tariffs on wine, oil, cheese, dairy products and luxury foods are being reduced or gradually created.
• EU producers will gain greater market access in South America; conversely, South American agricultural exports (e.g. beef, sugar) will have better access to the EU.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Nestlé $NESN (+1,76%) Danone $BN (+0,23%)
• Heineken $HEIA (+2,02%) AB InBev $ABI (+2,16%)
• FrieslandCampina $FCEPL

⚠️ However, critics point out that price pressure on local farmers* also arises and environmental risks can increase, for example due to cheaper imports.

_________________________

🚗 3. raw materials & energy: medium to long-term effects

Mercosur countries export large quantities of raw materials:

• Soy, sugar, coffee, ethanol, grain
• Brazil is also a major supplier of crude oil and minerals

One of the aims of the agreement is more stable commodity trade with fewer tariffs, which can influence commodity prices and move the shares of commodity and energy companies.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Vale $VALE3 (+0,45%) Petrobras $PETR3 (-0,76%)
• Bunge $BG (+0,34%) , ADM $ADM (+0,18%)

_________________________

🏦 4. finance & services sector

The agreement also facilitates:

• Market access for financial services
• Opening of telecom and transportation markets
• Opening of public procurement to EU suppliers

➡️ This could strengthen banks, insurers and logistics companies that operate across borders.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Allianz $ALV (+0,57%) Deutsche Bank $DBK (-2,6%)
• DHL/Deutsche Post $DHL (+0,88%) Kuehne + Nagel $KNIN (+0,51%)

_________________________

🔄 Short-term market risks

Not everything is automatically positive:

• 🇪🇺 Agricultural protests in Europe show resistance to cheap imports.
• Political uncertainties remain - many parliaments need to ratify.
• Sectors with low competitiveness could come under price pressure.

_________________________

📌 Conclusion

The Mercosur agreement could be an issue with far-reaching effects:

✅ Strong export industry gains new sales markets

✅ Agricultural and luxury food sector gains sales opportunities

✅ Financial and service sector benefits from market expansion

✅ Raw material exporting countries in South America could become more integrated

⚠️ At the same time, there are risks for local producers and price distortions that could have a regional impact on share prices

_________________________

Question for you: What is your opinion on the agreement? And in which sectors or listed companies do you see the biggest winners in the long term?

_________________________

Sources:

- 🌎🤝 Mercosur-Freihandelsabkommen zwischen EU & Mercosur unterzeichnet – größte Freihandelszone weltweit

- 💶📈 Wirtschaftliche Chancen für EU-Exporteure und Importeure durch Zollerleichterungen

- ⚙️🚗 Branchenanalysen mit Zollabbau-Effekten für Maschinen, Autos, Chemie etc.

- 🌾🥩 Agrar- und Rohstoff-Impakte durch neue Marktchancen und Quotenregelungen

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