YTD return:

🥇 Gold: ≈ +39.1 %

🥈 Silver: ≈ +24.7 %

🥉 Copper: ≈ +20.6 %

⚗️ Palladium: ≈ +34.5 %

💎 Platinum: ≈ +45.4 %

🥇Gold:

📈Chart technicals: The uptrend is running in a clean rising weekly channel.

The all-time high at 3 500 $/oz (22 Apr.) is intact; setbacks to the 50-day EMA (~3 300 $) were absorbed each time.

Primary support zone: 3 200 - 3 100 $ - the previous breakout level. RSI > 60 confirms bullish momentum.

ℹ️Fundamental Driver No. 1: Central bank buying.

In 2025, the official sector is again targeting ≈ 1,000 t - the 4th year in a row of massive purchases, driven by de-dollarization and geopolitical hedging.

🥈Silver:

📈Chart technicals:

Despite +25% YTD, the price is still ~30% below the historic peak of $49. The multi-decade cup-and-handle formation is approaching the neckline at 36 - 37 $; a significant weekly close above it could activate a target above 75 $. Short-term supports: $34.8 (May breakout level) and $32.

ℹ️Fundamental Driver No. 1: Supply deficit.

The World Silver Survey reports a shortfall of 149 Moz in 2024; a further 118 Moz is expected in 2025 - largely due to solar and e-mobility demand, while 70% of production is by-product.

🥉Copper:

📈Chart technicals:

On July 8, the "blue-sky breakout" to 12 526 $/t (5.68 $/lb) took place. Volume spike and weekly RSI > 70 confirm strength. The former top band 10 500 - 10 800 $/t now serves as key support; a retest to ~11 000 $ would be technically sound without breaking the uptrend.

ℹ️Fundamental driver no. 1: Structural scarcity.

UNCTAD warns: By 2030, around 80 new mines and $ 250 bn CapEx would be needed to meet demand from the energy transition, data centers and e-mobility - otherwise the market deficit will persist.

This is where I am currently positioned:

🥇Gold:

$EWG2 (+0,37%)

$IGLN (-0,61%)

$SPGP (-1,47%)

$GDXJ (-1,31%)

$BTO (-0,53%)

$FF (-2,64%)

🥈Silver:

$PHAG (-0,28%)

$FR (-0,52%)

🥉Copper:

$COPA (+1,75%)

$HBM (+2,71%)

$ATYM (+1,01%)

❓Do you see a continuation of the bull market in metals and are you positioned accordingly?

$CCL (+0,53%) One of my long-term stocks has been trimmed back from overweight (4%) to normal size (2.5%). A few months ago I bought at €15 and €17 and have now partially sold at €25. The share will not disappear completely for me. I am hoping for a recovery of €30+. If it falls below €20 again, I will slowly overweight again. This game has been played from time to time for the last 5 years and the positive management of the debt, in addition to the constant good news, slowly speaks for a breakthrough.

$BAYN (+0,49%) I bought in at the beginning of April at €22, but have now decided to close the position at just under €27. I actually wanted to hold the share long, but somehow I can't warm to it. Perhaps it will find its way back into my portfolio at some point.

$AVGO (+2,06%) In the April crash, I bought the stock at €151 (2% weighting) using a Lombard loan (10% portfolio size), among other things, and the position has now been closed at €224. More was not my target recovery to old ATH.

$9618 (-0,39%) Unfortunately, this position was closed with a minus of 13%. The reason for this was the annual rebalancing in which the China portion had become too large for me. As I was convinced by $1211 (-0,43%) , $BABA (+1,35%) and $PDD (+0%) JD had to give way.

Portfolio purchase:

$OXY (-0,52%) Bought another small tranche. After the 10% slump, I had some capital left over, which was invested at 36.50. One of my larger individual bets with a 5% portfolio weighting.

A new addition to the portfolio is $TX (+0,64%) with a small position of 1%. The reason sounds stupid, but it's a little chat GPT experiment. I wanted to be told which stocks were selected according to the Columbia Buffet approach. I was given 5 suggestions, some of which were frankly garbage. But this stock somehow got me hooked. Which is why I took the risk with only 1% of my portfolio (just over 1k).

Note:

My single stock portfolio Smartbroker plus makes up 2/3 of the asset class equities.

1/3 are Etf's with Trade Republic.

In total, equities make up 90% of my investable assets.

In addition to my three equity ETFs, TR holds my real estate REIT ($O (-0,21%) approx. 5%), as well as my gold ETC ($SGBS (-0,42%) 2.5%) and my gold miner Etf ($GDXJ (-1,31%) 2.5%) which make up the remaining 10%.

Approximate total assets 100k (more like 95k :/ due to volatility) but debt free (except for a 3.5k balance on the Lombard loan). I have been investing since 2020 and am 28 years young.

Apart from the current standard reasons "geopolitical uncertainties, expectations of interest rate cuts, weakening US dollar", I can't think of any 🤷‍♂️

$PHAG (-0,28%)

$IGLN (-0,61%)

$EWG2 (+0,37%)

$SPGP (-1,47%)

$GDXJ (-1,31%)

$FR (-0,52%)

$FF (-2,64%)

$BTO (-0,53%)

Since gold broke above its previous high from 2020 at the beginning of 2024, it has been soaring.

Major banks have made massive purchases - a clear indication of growing institutional confidence, but also growing skepticism on the market.

📌Historical perspective: inflation and precious metals

Historically, gold and silver have performed particularly well in times of high inflation. While paper money loses value, precious metals traditionally offer security and value retention.

👉 The historical price ratio between gold and silver is also interesting.

Historically, this ratio has usually fluctuated between 15:1 and 80:1, currently it is in the higher range (approx. 89)which suggests that silver has the potential to catch up in the long term.

🆘Gold & silver in stagflation

In stagflation scenarios - economic stagnation combined with high inflation - precious metals have performed above average in the past.

👉 During the stagflation in the USA in the 1970s, the price of gold exploded from around 35 to around USD 850 per ounce.

Currently, many experts see a possible stagflation emerging again, triggered by high national debt, geopolitical tensions and a fragile economic situation.

This could be a catalyst for further price increases in precious metals.

📈Bull market 2025 and beyond?

Fundamentally, there are many reasons for a continuation of the bull market in gold and silver:

• 🪖 Persistent geopolitical uncertainties
• 🆘 Possible stagflation in the USA and Europe
• 📉 High government debt and expansionary monetary policy
• ☀️ Particularly for silver: strong growth in industrial demand from electronics, solar energy and electromobility

The main arguments against this are possible interest rate cuts or a surprisingly strong economic recovery, which could lure investors back into risk assets.

👇 In the following sections, we will now take a look at the charts.

If you are not familiar with chart technology, it is best to skip straight to the conclusion at the bottom

📌 Gold chart

☕Cup-and-handle formation

A cup-and-handle formation is a bullish (positive) chart pattern that often develops over several years. It resembles a cup with a handle and often signals a long-term trend reversal to the upside.

The formation consists of:

Cup: A long, u-shaped recovery that occurs after a sharp price rise and subsequent correction.

Handle: A shorter correction phase after the recovery before the price finally breaks out and ideally starts a long-term bull market.

👉 From 2011 to 2024, gold formed a clear cup-and-handle formation. (Cup: 2011 to 2020 - Handle: 2020 to 2024)

The most recent breakout from this formation in March 2024 could mark the start of a new long-term bull market.

📌 Silver chart

🧐 It is worth taking a long-term look at silver since 1960:

• Silver reached a spectacular high in 1980
• A new high was only just reached in 2011

📈 Silver is currently approaching this all-time high again.

A long-term cup-and-handle formation can also be seen here:

• Cup: 1980 to 2011
• Handle: 2011 to today (possibly completed soon)

👉 Technically, silver may be on the verge of a possible long-term breakout, which is extremely exciting.

📌 Conclusion

I currently see strong arguments for investing in gold and silver in the fundamental data and the technical charts.

Yesterday (18.03.2025) I increased my silver position in $PHAG (-0,28%) in order to benefit from a potential rally.

I have to say that my investment horizon for gold and silver is very long (20+ years), as I consider precious metals to be the cornerstone of my portfolio.

This is the current composition of my precious metal portfolio:

• GOLD:
  $EWG2 (+0,37%) , $IGLN (-0,61%) (3.75% of my portfolio)
• SILVER:
  $PHAG (-0,28%) (2.40% of my portfolio)
• Gold mining ETFs:
  $SPGP (-1,47%) , $GDXJ (-1,31%) (1.92% of my portfolio)
• Individual shares (very speculative):
  $BTO (-0,53%) , $FF (-2,64%) , $FR (-0,52%) (< 1% of my portfolio)

Do you have gold and silver in your portfolio?

If so, what is your weighting?

You might also be interested:

🆘 Crash-Warnsignale & die beste Strategie: Was sagt uns die Vergangenheit?

📈 When in Doubt, Zoom Out – Chart-Tipps für Langfrist-Investoren

#gold
#silber
#edelmetalle