I would like to tell you about my little project that has kept me busy over the last month :)

I'm a fan of sentiment indicators and I'm sure everyone here is familiar with the CNN Fear and Greed Index(1)

This index uses various indicators to determine how fearful or greedy market participants currently are.

However, there is not really any data going back very far, which is why I have created my own Fear and Greed Index. Firstly, it goes back to 2000 and secondly, it consists of more indicators that can be weighted manually.

This is my favorite weighting:

Which indicators are used?

The CNN Index uses the following:

(All "companies" always refer to S&P 500 $SPY (+0,17%) companies)

• S&P500 Momentum (S&P500 $SPY (+0,17%) Index against its 125 EMA)
• Stock Price Strength (companies at 52-week high vs 52-week low)
• Stock Price Breadth (volume of companies with price gains vs price losses)
• Put-call ratio (number of put vs. call options)
• Market Volatility (VIX $VIX vs 50 day EMA)
• Safe Haven Demand (Price Gains vs Bond Yields (10Y))
• Junk Bond Demand (Spread between Junk Bonds vs Treasury Yields)

I also use these indicators, including the following additional ones:

• University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (consumer sentiment survey)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (investor sentiment survey)
• Margin Debt Ratio (measures investment purchases on credit (leveraged positions))
• Insider Transactions (insider buying vs insider selling)
• 10Y Treasury Yield (coupon of the 10-year US bond)
• YieldCurve (Coupon of the 10Y - Coupon of the 2Y US bond)

the following indicators signal greed (higher values => greed):

• S&P500 $SPY (+0,17%) well above 125 EMA
• Stock Price Strength (many companies at annual high vs. annual low)
• Stock Price Breadth (high volume on price gains)
• Safe Haven Demand (high price gains vs bond yields)
• Consumer Sentiment (good consumer sentiment)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (bullish investor sentiment)
• Margin Debt Ratio (high and highly leveraged positions)
• 10Y Treasury Yield (can also indicate a weak current situation in a recession, but I opted for the long-term positive outlook, which is indicated by a high yield)

the following indicators signal Fear (higher values => Fear):

• Put-call ratio (more bets on falling prices)
• Market Volatility (more volatility expresses nervousness)
• Junk bond demand (higher risk premium for junk bonds)
• Insider Transactions (higher BUYs as a signal of fear, as smart money is considered here. The highest buy/sell ratios were seen during recessions)
• YieldCurve (higher spread than a signal from Fear, often in recessions when short-term prospects are extremely poor, but in general I didn't find the indicator very good, which is why I no longer have it in the final version)

There is data that is available daily, while I only have access to others after 2 months, which is why my index generally lags behind CNN's Fear and Greed (CNN in BLUE, mine in GREEN):

(here I find CNN's index way too low in the 2021 tech boom period)

Currently, there is also a big divergence. While the CNN index has plummeted to 30 from 67, my index is still at 75 from 94.

I've been thinking about training an AI model that calculates a good investment strategy for me and optimizes the return or the Sharpe ratio (risk-adjusted return), for example. Here you could train on different ETFs. However, this will probably lead to overfitting (the model learns exact values from the past and not general strategies). Overfitting could perhaps be reduced somewhat by training on a random index, so the model has to find a strategy that can cope with a random ETF.

In general, it should be noted that the Fear and Greed Index only covers the US market. It probably works best on US indices $SPY (+0,17%)
$CSNDX (+0,12%) but global strategies should also work well, as the US share is usually over 60% $IWDA (+0,05%)
$ACWI . Europe or EM probably have a slightly lower correlation $EXSA (+0,14%)
$EIMI (-0,6%)

Nevertheless, the US dominates the world and therefore a US sentiment index should also be a global sentiment index.

Maybe I'll make the index publicly available, we'll see.

Now it's your turn:

What would interest you in connection with this index?

What could be done differently, added, etc.?

I wish you all a Merry Christmas🌟🎄🌟

1) https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Blog post:

I currently invest 60% of my savings plan in the $CSPX (+0,18%) and 40% in the $EXSA (+0,14%) . Now, after Trump's election victory and possible punitive tariffs on European products, I am considering whether a switch to 70% S&P 500 and 30% Euro Stoxx 600 would make sense in order to increase returns. What do you think - could a higher proportion of the US market currently bring a better return?

What do you think of the combination of $VUSA (+0,18%) and $VFEM (-0,58%) and $EXSA (+0,14%)

Thumbs up for good/ thumbs down for bad

If you have any suggestions for improvements, please write them in the comments ⬇️

Hello,

I am currently saving the $IWDA (+0,05%) and the $EIMI (-0,6%) monthly. At the moment I am toying with the idea of adding the $EXSA (+0,14%) into my portfolio, simply to reduce the usa share and diversify more broadly.

Furthermore, I have often thought about saving gold as a "crisis hedge".

Which gold ETFs do you save in and which do you recommend?

2,83% in the red was my portfolio today.

How much were you in the red?

$VUSA (+0,18%)
$ALUR
$DPRO
$FFIE
$F (+0,16%)
$EXSA (+0,14%)
$IWDA (+0,05%)
$SOFI (+0,19%)
$TENX
$UGI (+0,07%)

Hello everyone,

would these ETFs be sufficient for return and diversification? I am 34 and the investment period would be until retirement :-)

50% $VWCE (+0,05%) FTSE World

15% $CSPX (+0,18%) SP500

10% $ANX (+0,13%) Nasdaq 100

10% $FLXI (-0,65%) MSCI FTSE India

10% $EXSA (+0,14%) stoxx 600

5%. $EWG2 (+0%) Gold Euwax 2

Would then be 58% USA, 18% Asia and 18% EU

TECH is 25%

I currently have 70% Sp500, 20% sp500 Tech and 10% nasdaq 100 and want to change this

Thank you already

Hello Community,

I (28 years old) am currently somehow dissatisfied with my portfolio and hope to get some ideas/tips from you.

My investment period is long term (10-15 years) and the basis is the MSCI World + in the future the STOXX 600 will be added. The portfolio is currently tech and USA-heavy, but as I think tech will determine the future and the companies are active worldwide, I would have rated this as "ok to good" or is this rather overweighted?

What would a good roadmap look like?

I would keep the following positions keep:

$IWDA (+0,05%) MSCI World

$NVDA (+0,64%) Nvidia

$EXSA (+0,14%) STOXX 600

$MSFT (+0,07%) Microsoft

$META (-0,09%) Meta

I am unsure about the following positions unsure:

$O (+0,07%) Realty Income

$WM (+0,49%) Waste management

$AMD (+0,2%) AMD

$SBUX (+0%) Starbucks

$MUV2 (+0%) Munich RE

$PLUG (+3,51%) Plug Power - Realize losses or continue to hold?

I would close:

$DWS (+0%) DWS Group - currently Ex traded. Sell at +-0

Have a nice weekend and thank you! :-)

Hello everyone,

after many interesting portfolios and investment strategies, I would like to share and briefly explain my portfolio.

I am 22 and started investing in ETFs in 2022. About 50% $IWDA (+0,05%) , 20% $EIMI (-0,6%) , 20% $EXSA (+0,14%) and approx. 10% $WSML (+0,05%) to diversify as much as possible.

My aim is to achieve a constant savings rate of around EUR 400,000 over the years and then to switch to a dividend portfolio.

However, since individual stocks such as Amazon, NVIDIA, Microsoft and others (primarily the Big7) have been outperforming the msci World on average for years, I have recently bought significantly more individual stocks and neglected the ETFs. As far as the investment period for individual stocks is concerned, I assume a period of 5-10 years. $MSFT (+0,07%) can probably be held for a similar length of time to ETFs. I don't want any more positions at the moment. I divide my savings rate of around €700 relatively evenly between all positions.

That's it :) I look forward to constructive feedback.

Hey everyone,

I've only been active here for a short time and am not yet as big as many here, but I still wanted to share my Rewind 📊

I only really started building up a portfolio of individual shares this year. I have been saving since 2021 $IWDA (+0,05%)
$EIMI (-0,6%)
$EXSA (+0,14%) but would now like to invest more (or additionally) in individual shares 🥳

I'm still studying, I'm 24 years old and currently have around 50% of my total assets invested, so there's still room for growth 👆🏻

I'm looking forward to nice connections!

Best regards 📈