$NFLX (-1,73%)

Netflix has gained more new subscribers than in any other quarter in its history.

Netflix subscribers over time.

$DIS (-1,33%) , $AMZN (-2,39%) , $WBD (-2,83%) , $PARA (+0,27%) , $FUBO

$NFLX (-1,73%)

• Sales: USD 10.25 billion (estimated USD 10.11 billion); increase of +16 % compared to the previous year
• Earnings per share: USD 4.27 (estimated USD 4.18); increase of +102 % compared to the previous year
• Paid streaming net admissions: +18.91 million (estimated +9.18 million) ; increase of +44% compared to the previous year
• Total number of paid streaming memberships: 301.63 million (estimated 290.93 million); increase of 16% compared to the previous year
• Operating income: USD 2.27 billion (estimated USD 2B); increase of 52% compared to the previous year
• Operating margin: 22.2 % (estimated 21.9 %)
• Free cash flow: USD 1.38 billion (estimated USD 1.06 billion); decrease of -13% compared to the previous year

Segment performance:

United States and Canada (UCAN):

• Sales: USD 4.52 billion; increase of 15 % compared to the previous year
• Paid net additions: +4.82 million (estimated +1.75 million); increase of +72% compared to the previous year
• Average revenue per membership (ARM): $17.26; increase of 4% compared to the previous year

Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA):

• Revenue: USD 3.29 billion; increase of 18 % compared to the previous year
• Paid net additions: +5 million (estimated +3.09 million); decrease of -1% compared to the previous year
• ARM: $11.11; increase of 3% compared to the previous year

Latin America (LATAM):

• Sales: $1.23 billion; decrease of 7% compared to the previous year
• Paid net additions: +4.15 million (estimated +1.5 million); increase of +77% compared to the previous year
• ARM: $8.00; decrease of -7% compared to the previous year

Asia-Pacific (APAC):

• Sales: USD 1.21 billion; increase of 26% compared to the previous year
• Paid net additions: +4.94 million (estimated +2.70 million); increase of +70% compared to the previous year
• ARM: $7.34; unchanged compared to the previous year

Content performance:

• "Squid Game" Season 2 and "Carry-On" have reached significant milestones and "Squid Game" is well on its way to becoming one of the most-watched original series.
• With the fight between Jake Paul and Mike Tyson, Netflix delivered the most-streamed sporting event of all time.
• Record-breaking NFL viewing figures on Christmas Day.

Forecast for the first quarter of 2025:

• Revenue: USD 10.42 billion (estimate: USD 10.48 billion)
• Earnings per share: USD 5.58 (estimate: USD 6.01)
• Operating income: USD 2.94 billion (estimate: USD 3.13 billion)
• Operating margin: 28.2% (estimate: 29.8%)

Forecast for the full year 2025:

• Sales: USD 43.5-44.5 bn (estimate: USD 43.59 bn); increase of 12-14% compared to the previous year
• Operating profit margin: 29% (previously: 28%)
• Free cash flow: approx. USD 8 billion (estimated: USD 8.51 billion)

CEO's comment:

• "2024 marked a renewed acceleration in growth with a 16% increase in sales compared to the previous year. We are entering 2025 with strong momentum and are preparing for the return of hit series such as 'Squid Game', 'Wednesday' and 'Stranger Things'. Our live programs and ad-financed plans are the main drivers of this growth."

Strategic updates:

• Focus on ad-supported plans. 55% of new sign-ups in ad-supported regions opt for ads.
• Investment in live event programming, including exclusive rights to the FIFA Women's World Cup (2027 and 2031).
• Enhanced ad tech platform to be launched in Canada and rolled out in the US in April 2025.

$DIS (-1,33%)
$AMZN (-2,39%)
$WBD (-2,83%)
$PARA (+0,27%)

08.07.2024 +++ Nike cuts costs +++ Boeing fined heavily +++ Tesla with high legal costs +++ Falling oil price depresses EXXON Mobile +++ Delivery Hero makes higher provision +++ Paramount merges +++ German imports worse than expected +++ (Update 3:10 pm)

From 2027 onwards Nike $NKE (-0,48%) the German national soccer teams. But the 100 million deal seems to be an act of desperation. Nike boss John Donahoe urgently needs a success. And snatching away its most important symbol from rival Adidas in its home market after almost 80 years is a success. However, it was one that immediately fizzled out. Donahoe's deal not only caused astonishment among experts, but also head-shaking in his own ranks. Because while the boss is throwing millions at the DFB, he is implementing a rigid cost-cutting program at Nike. Costs are to be reduced by two billion US dollars and around 1700 jobs are to be cut, 740 of them at the company headquarters in Beaverton, Oregon. Because business is going worse than ever. (Süddeutsche Zeitung)

The Boeing share $BA (-1,57%) rose by 0.7 % after the aircraft manufacturer agreed to pay a fine of USD 243.6 million as part of the US Department of Justice's investigation into two fatal 737 MAX crashes.

The Tesla share $TSLA (-4,32%)fell 1% after hitting its highest level this year on Friday, while the electric vehicle maker's shareholders will argue in court on Monday that an unprecedented demand for more than $7 billion in legal fees that the company is ordered to pay is "preposterous".

The shares of Exxon Mobil $XOM (-0,73%) fell 1.2% on Monday as crude oil prices declined. This overshadowed the oil major's statement that changes in oil prices would boost the company's second-quarter upstream earnings by $300 million to $700 million compared with the first quarter.

DELIVERY HERO $DHER (-3,81%) reports bad news on Sunday evening. The delivery service had to announce that it would have to significantly increase its provisions for anti-competitive agreements. Delivery Hero had previously set aside EUR 186 million for this purpose. Now it could even be more than EUR 400 million

Paramount Global $PARA (+0,27%) merges with Skydance Media - a complicated transaction that ends the Redstone family's involvement in the Hollywood company. Shari Redstone sells her family's majority stake in Paramount Global and merges the entertainment giant with Skydance Media. This ends the almost four decades of power she and her father held in the entertainment industry. Skydance and its investors have agreed to spend more than 8 billion dollars to acquire National Amusements, the family business that controls Paramount, and invest in the new version of the company. The deal provides the struggling entertainment giant with a cash injection at a time when the traditional media landscape is in decline

In the midst of the trade dispute with China, German exports slumped in May. Exports fell both to EU countries and to so-called third countries. Overall, exporters sold 3.6 percent less abroad than in the previous month, adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects, according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a drop of 3.0 percent. Compared to the same month last year, exports were 1.6 percent lower. Imports fell by 6.6 percent in May compared to the previous month. The economists surveyed had predicted a drop of 2.0%. For the year as a whole, the decline amounted to 8.7 percent. In total, calendar and seasonally adjusted goods worth 131.6 billion euros were exported from Germany and goods worth 106.7 billion euros were imported into Germany in May.

Monday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Defama Deutsche Fachmarkt EUR 0.57

Hornbach Holding EUR 2.40

Masterflex EUR 0.25

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

18:00 Repsol Trading Statement 2Q

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Trade Balance May Trade Balance calendar and seasonally adjusted FORECAST: +19.5 billion euros previously: +22.1 billion euros Exports FORECAST: -3.0% yoy previously: +1.6% yoy Imports FORECAST: -2.0% yoy previously: +2.0% yoy
• 10:30 DE: Sentix Economic Index Germany and Eurozone July
• 21:00 US: Consumer Credit 5/24

03.07.2024 +++ Tesla no longer growing so strongly +++ Moderna to develop new vaccine +++ Eli Lilly receives approval for Alzheimer's drug +++ Purchasing Managers' Index in DE, IT, FR and UK today +++

$TSLA (-4,32%) Tesla's vehicle sales fell again in the second quarter in the face of increasing competition. The company reported sales of 443,956 vehicles worldwide, a decrease of 4.8 percent compared to the same quarter last year. According to Factset, analysts had expected Tesla to deliver only 436,000 units. The US company is no longer growing as fast as in previous years, which underlines the challenges facing the entire industry. Other carmakers have launched dozens of new electric models, but demand has fallen short of initial expectations - despite falling prices and a series of low-interest and leasing offers. CEO Elon Musk is facing his biggest test in years. The Tesla founder wants to spend more money on developing new and more affordable models, while also investing in costly new technologies amid a slowing market for electric cars.

The pharmaceutical manufacturer Moderna $MRNA (+6,04%) is to develop an mRNA-based vaccine against avian flu for humans. The company has announced that it has been awarded 176 million US dollars by the government. The contract follows an unprecedented outbreak of avian flu in US livestock. So far, 137 dairy herds in a dozen states are known to be infected. Only three known cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus have been reported in the US since the outbreak. However, the authorities are monitoring the situation very closely. Scientists fear a potential pandemic threat. The US government, in collaboration with GSK, Sanofi and CSL Sequirus, has developed its own vaccines that could be used in the event of an H5N1 outbreak. However, production capacity is limited. Moderna is developing a pandemic influenza vaccine candidate called mRNA-1018 and began trials last year. Initial results are expected this year.

Eli Lilly $LLY (+0,32%) has received US approval for its Alzheimer's drug Kisunla, which will accelerate change in the treatment of this dementia. Kisunla is administered monthly and costs about $12,522 for six months of treatment, $32,000 for 12 months and $48,696 for 18 months. Some patients diagnosed with the disease have taken a pill to alleviate their symptoms. Others ended up in institutions that took care of them once they could no longer look after themselves. With the launch of drugs like Eli Lilly's Kisunla, Alzheimer's treatment promises to slow cognitive decline, albeit modestly.

More company news:

The shares of Tesla $TSLA (-4,32%) fell 1.6% after sales of electric vehicles manufactured in China fell 24.2% year-on-year in June, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed on Tuesday.

Paramount Global $PARA (+0,27%) shares rose 3.1% after the New York Times reported that billionaire Barry Diller is considering a takeover bid for the company after the studio he used to run backed out of a merger with Skydance Media.

The shares of Boeing $BA (-1,57%) fell 0.4% after the Associated Press reported that the U.S. Justice Department is waiting for the planemaker to accept an agreement to settle fraud allegations related to two fatal crashes of its 737 Max planes.

The shares of Carnival $CCL (-5,34%) fell 1.1% and Norwegian Cruise Line (NYSE:NCLH) shares fell 1.2% as Hurricane Beryl made its way through the Caribbean, potentially impacting cruise operations.

Shares of Polestar $PSNY fell 5% after the electric vehicle maker announced a first-quarter operating loss, adding that it will have to take steps to offset steep EU and U.S. import tariffs on its Chinese-made electric cars.

The shares of Pure Storage $PSTG (-2,99%) fell 5% after UBS downgraded the company, which develops all-flash data storage hardware and software products, to "sell" from "neutral," citing concerns about slowing growth, declining market share and an overvalued share price.

CrowdStrike $CRWD (-6,19%) fell 2.5% after Piper Sandler downgraded its stance on the cybersecurity company to "neutral" from "overweight", citing valuation concerns.

Incyte $INCY (+2,24%) fell 3.1% after BMO Capital Markets downgraded the drugmaker to "underperform" from "market perform", citing concerns that revenue from its key eczema cream Opzelura was likely to be "challenged".

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Shortened trading hours US bond market (until 8 pm), US stock market (until 7 pm)

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Bank of Nova Scotia CAD 1.06

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Grenke new business 2Q

10:00 Voestalpine AGM

11:00 Krones AG Capital Markets Day

Economic data

• 09:45 IT: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing June FORECAST: 53.7 previous: 54.2
• 09:50 FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) June PROGNOSE: 48.8 1st release: 48.8 previous: 49.3 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (2nd release) FORECAST: 48.2 1st release: 48.2 previous: 48.9
• 09:55 DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) June PROGNOSE: 53.5 1st release: 53.5 previous: 54.2 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (2nd release) PROGNOSE: 50.6 1st release: 50.6 previous: 52.4
• 10:00 EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing euro area (2nd release) June PROGNOSE: 52.6 1st release: 52.6 previous: 53.2 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (2nd release) PROGNOSE: 50.8 1st release: 50.8 previous: 52.2
• 10:30 UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) June OUTLOOK: 51.2 1st release: 51.2 previous: 52.9
• 11:00 EU: Producer Prices May Eurozone Forecast: +0.1% yoy/-4.0% yoy Previous: -1.0% yoy/-5.7% yoy
• 14:15 US: ADP Labor Market Report June Private Sector Employment PROGNOSIS: +160,000 jobs previously: +152,000 jobs
• 14:30 US: Initial Jobless Claims (week) FORECAST: 233,000 Previous: 233,000
• 14:30 US: Trade Balance May FORECAST: -76.30 bn USD previously: -74.56 bn USD
• 15:45 US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Services (2nd release) June Forecast: 55.1 1st release: 55.1 Previous: 54.8
• 16:00 US: Industrial New Orders May PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.7% yoy
• 16:00 US: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index June FORECAST: 52.8 points previous: 53.8 points
• 16:30 US: EIA oil report (week)
• 19:00 US: US stock market closes (shortened trading session)
• 20:00 US: Minutes of the FOMC meeting June 11/12
• 20:00 US: US bond market closes (abbreviated trading)

Paramount Global CLASS A and CLASS B shares (complicated questions for professionals)

First of all, we all know the difference between Class A and Class B shares. Basically, Class A shares have voting rights and are more expensive, while Class B shares are priced lower (and therefore may have a higher dividend yield) and have no voting rights.

In principle, it should not matter which of the two shares you buy, as the performance is almost identical. This also works very well with Berkshire in the following example $BRK.A (+0,95%) and $BRK.B (-0,13%)

However, I have now found a very complicated case involving the shares of Paramount Global, namely $PARA (+0,27%) and $PARAA (-0,34%) These basically work in the same way as described above, but the charts are completely independent of each other. For example, over the year (YTD) the Class A share has gained +16%, while the Class B share has fallen by -8%.

Now the takeover that all shareholders are hoping for is finally on the horizon (I reported on it) and something strange is happening again. The Class A share, which is actually performing better, rises by +10% over the month, while the Class B share rises by +30%.

But that makes no sense at all, because if we assume a takeover, the Class A share should actually be much more interesting, as the aim is to buy up the voting rights.

Am I crazy, or does this really not make any sense at all?

The coming week summarized:

Monday:

• New home sales (January)
• Quarterly reports from Workday ($WDAY (-1,61%) ), Zoom Video Communications ($ZM (-0,3%) ), Domino's Pizza ($DPZ (-1,75%) ) and Unity Software ($U (+1,7%) )

Tuesday:

• Orders for durable goods (January)
• S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
• Consumer Confidence (February)
• Quarterly reports from Lowe's ($LOW (-2,87%) ), ONEOK ($OKE (+0,82%) ), Bank of Montreal ($BMO (-0,06%) ), American Tower ($AMT (-0,19%) ) and AutoZone ($AZO (-0,72%) )

Wednesday:

• Gross Domestic Product of the USA (first revision of the fourth quarter)
• US trade balance (January)
• Retail inventories (January)
• Wholesale inventories (January)
• Quarterly reports from Salesforce ($CRM (-2,41%) ), Snowflake ($SNOW (-3,37%) ), Royal Bank of Canada ($RY (-0,25%) ), HP ($HPQ (-0,12%) ), TJX ($TJX (-1,44%) ), Paramount Global ($PARA (+0,27%) ) and Monster Beverage Corp. ($MNST (+4,14%) )

Thursday:

• Personal Consumer Price Index (PCE)
• Initial claims for unemployment benefits
• Pending home sales (January)
• Statements by Atlanta Fed President
  Raphael Bostic, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
• Quarterly reports from Anheuser-Busch InBev ($BUD (+1,97%) ), Dell Technologies ($DELL (-1,59%) ), Toronto-Dominion Bank ($TD.PR.P ), Hewlett Packard Enterprise ($HPE (-2,32%) ) and Best Buy ($BBY (-0,46%) )

Friday:

• Statements from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Federal Reserve Board Gov. Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly
• Quarterly reports from RadNet ($RDNT (-4,6%) ), Plug
  Power ($PLUG (-4,22%) ) and FuboTV ($FUBO )