Postos
127Nvidia
$NVDA (-4,65%) and UBER
$UBER (+0,59%) have announced a collaboration to provide new solutions for the development of AI-powered technologies for self-driving vehicles for self-driving vehicles.
Further details are to be announced later this year.
Graphics: Nvidia
Nvidia Cosmos is a platform of state-of-the-art generative World Foundation
models (WFM), advanced tokenizers, guardrails and an accelerated
accelerated data processing and curation pipeline that enables the
development of physical AI systems such as autonomous vehicles (AVs) and
Hello my dears. Opinions on Uber are divided. Goldman Sachs is optimistic and sees the price target at USD 96.
JMP Securities warns of competition from Waymo and Tesla.
What do you think of Uber?
The shares of Uber Technologies have risen in recent days. The company is trying to put a mixed performance in 2024 behind it and attack again in 2025.
The share price has been weighed down by concerns that autonomous vehicles from Waymo (backed by Alphabet) and Tesla could jeopardize Uber's market share. According to Investor's Business Daily (IBD), the share's relative strength rating fell from 82 to 19 in three months.
Analysts divided
Goldman Sachs took an optimistic stance and placed Uber on its Conviction List. In a CNBC interview, analyst Eric Sheridan described Uber as the "best pick of the year".
"Most AV offerings will not reach unit costs that allow direct market entry in the next year or two. However, they could be integrated as an option in the Uber app," Sheridan explained. Goldman Sachs has issued a price target of USD 96, which is a third above the current share price.
Skepticism at JMP Securities
JMP Securities sees risks from the growing competition. Analyst Andrew Boone downgraded Uber to "market perform" and explained:
Waymo is scaling at lightning speed and has almost unlimited access to capital.
He warned that Uber could face significant challenges in adapting to a hybrid marketplace of first- and third-party providers. Boone believes it is likely that Waymo will increasingly act as a competitor in the future. At the same time, relaxed regulations under President-elect Donald Trump could benefit Tesla. Waymo recorded over 175,000 trips per week in cities such as San Francisco and Los Angeles at the end of 2024.
Outlook for the market
A regulatory framework for self-driving cars is expected by 2025, which could further change the dynamics of the market. Analysts are advising investors to keep a close eye on further developments, even if the analyst community has high confidence in the share. The average price potential of Wall Street experts is around 40 percent. However, the price/earnings ratio of 33.71 is no bargain.
In 2024, a lot has happened for me financially. I started investing around the middle of 2021. As I come from a family in which investing in the stock market was rather frowned upon (my parents invested in car manufacturers in 2000, which then slipped in 2001 just like everything else and they realized the losses), I only dared to start with small amounts bit by bit on an ETF basis in 2021. Financial flow classic 70% MSCI World ETF and 30% MSCI EM. The good thing about this was above all building up the automatism of investing money steadily and not waiting until the end of the month.
However, in 2024 I started to look more closely at the topic of finance, sometimes watching Berkshire conferences with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger and realized that I was interested in individual stocks and would like to own Apple (shares) myself, for example. In February 24' I then looked at my EM position and saw that the position had been more or less at 0 since '21. So I sold just under €1000 and put it into Apple. And no, I didn't calculate the intrinsic value of the share first and didn't know at the time that Apple would be launching devices with AI at the end of 2024. I myself work in the field of software engineering/data science and if someone has the choice, you actually always take the Macbook over Windows computers. But that's another topic for debate :)
The Apple shares then performed really well even after the purchase and I was fascinated by the fact that I generated more unrealized profits with a single share or 6 Apple shares within 2 months than with the EM in 4 years. (I'll come back to EM later)
From March onwards, I suspended my savings plan in the ETFs and simply put the money in my Scalable clearing account instead. I didn't know what exactly I wanted to buy now, so pretty much from mid-24' I started to dive more into investing and how to analyze stocks. I had already studied discounted cash flow analysis in my bachelor's degree, back then in the subject of finance with a 3.0 :D. So I built an Excel spreadsheet and started using DCF models to calculate the intrinsic value of shares.
But what exactly should my strategy be when buying shares?
I mean, I already liked getting a dividend from Apple, so did I want to pursue some kind of dividend growth strategy? Should I go for "fast growers" as Peter Lynch would say? But should I then also add so-called "stalwarts" (dividend stocks) and "asset plays" (stocks with very expensive inventories, for example, or investments and cash whose book value is well below their actual value) to my portfolio, as he advises?
"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for ten years" - W. Buffett
Long-term focus
My investment horizon is over 10 years, so it is important to me to have some kind of predictability of income from the companies I want to buy. It was also important for me to be patient when buying from the outset and to allow some time to pass in order to check whether an investment thesis holds up over quarters.
Quality
I focus exclusively on companies with a leading position in their respective industry, either number 1 or number 2 in the respective sector with a large market share. The important thing here is that growth should be primarily organic. This means that the company should either simply build good, irreplaceable products that customers love and therefore remain loyal to, or simply be so influential that they can simply raise their prices without really losing customers ("pricing power" like Apple)
Concentration
Especially for someone coming from the financial flow school where the more diversified the investment, the better, it was hard to get used to this element. The investor Dev Kantesaria, who has successfully managed Valley Forge Capital for years and whose philosophy is also based on mine, once described this very aptly in an interview: "Why should I invest in my 25th best investment idea?". Accordingly, my goal is only to invest in a maximum of 15 individual stocks - I can't even manage to regularly check more in my free time and check whether the investment thesis still holds up.
Discipline
With the Emerging Markets ETF, I have held a position in my portfolio for several years purely out of conviction that this investment in emerging markets will work out in the long term. I also want to hold my stocks with the same conviction that they will perform well over the long term. In addition, I usually invest in companies when their intrinsic value suggests a margin of safety of at least 15-20%. For example, there was a slump in Alphabet shares in the summer with the unrest that Alphabet might be split up. The share was worth around €150 at the time. All of Alphabet's individual businesses have a combined intrinsic value of €250-300. Also related to this strategy element is that I don't really touch individual sectors that are associated with large research and development costs, for example, unless I really know my way around them. So I avoid biotech companies because I hardly know anything about them, but I invest in tech companies because I work in IT myself.
So I look for companies that are quasi monopolies in their respective industries, with strong market shares and a large moat due to irreplaceable or hard-to-penetrate products and a solid margin with a focus on steady free cash flow growth.
So why do I actually have the Emerging Markets ETF?
I asked myself this question and then promptly took another look at just ETF to see which stocks are actually in it. The top 10 holdings accounted for almost 25%. Why is that important? Some people always complain that the Magnificent 7 have such a high share in the S&P500, also slightly more than 25%, but this is usually due to the fact that companies are often weighted by market capitalization. If you then take a closer look at the top 10, 5 of them are Chinese companies. In general, China accounts for just under 25% of the ETF share. Chinese equities are not bad per se, there are some very good companies. However, the constant intervention of the government is a problem, laws can be changed overnight and a company becomes obsolete, or Mr. Ma, the CEO of Alibaba, simply disappears for a few months after having expressed mild criticism of government officials in a speech. These characteristics go against my strategy as formulated above, which is why the EM ETF was thrown out completely in July.
I then slowly tried to build up my individual positions towards the end of July, primarily $CRM (-1,08%) , $ASML (-0,64%) , $MSFT (-0,73%) , $BKNG (-1,85%) , $GOOG (-0,71%) , $V (-0,14%) and $AMZN (-1,82%) . On August 5 there was a small correction, I think it was due to the "Japanese carry trade". That week I made another big purchase, very happy not to have invested all my freed-up EM capital at once. As a result, I was able to invest heavily in Amazon and Alphabet and make them my largest single positions.
Overall, I am very happy with the decision. I am aware that the last stock market year was a very good one overall and that you shouldn't be deceived by appearances. Things will probably not always go so well. My third-largest single position, in which I was in the red at just under €1500 in the meantime $ASML (-0,64%) is good proof of this. Nevertheless, this company is a virtual monopoly in the chip manufacturing sector and will most likely remain so for the next 10 years. Therefore, I can only shrug my shoulders and look at the reports from the Magnificent 7, which are constantly expanding their data centers and in some cases were unable to meet demand in the last quarters of 2024! But there are already some good articles on this here on getquin. A new addition at the end of '24 is $UBER (+0,59%) I will also be steadily expanding my position there, and the watchlist also includes $MELI (-0,99%) , $MCO (-1,64%) , $SPGI (-0,15%) , $CAKE (+1,24%) and $AMD (-0,98%) for 2025.
To summarize:
Portfolio performance: 31% vs. S&P500 25%
Invested capital: approx. 22,000 euros
Portfolio value growth: approx. 42,000 euros
Goals for 2025:
Heyyy
My uncle created a small portfolio (4000 chf) for me when I was 12 (about 3 years ago). I am now 15 and own it myself. I am now also investing myself (up to now approx. 6000) and am working a vacation job to be able to invest more capital.
Now I need your opinion. I would like to invest more riskily as I am not yet so dependent on the money. I would also like to $UBER (+0,59%) expand.
I'm investing for the long term, which means I won't be taking any more money out for 10 years.
I would appreciate any opinions, especially constructive (negative) ones :)
The industry is finally at an acceleration point.
In February 2023 U.S. introduced the "Increasing Competitiveness for American Drones Act" which streamlined the approval of licenses for operating drones over American territory.
The advances in Ai have helped develop "detect and avoid" software for autonomous drones.
And at the same time the development of GPUs have allowed these software to be installed on small and light autonomous drones.
It has been 12 years since Jeff Bezos unveiled Amazon's plans to develop "Prime Air" a 30 minutes air drone delivery service. This happened during an episode of the tv show "60 minutes" in November 2013. youtu.be/Fbq6gQVLhWE
Yesterday night I was reading an article about Serve Robotics finance.yahoo.com/nvidia-uber-backing-700-million and I go inspired to make some research into the delivery drone industry. The article talk about $NVDA (-4,65%) and $UBER (+0,59%) investment into $SERV . If you don't want to read the full article, actually @BamBamInvest just made a short summary post of it ( https://getqu.in/RoQSMH/ ).
I investigated on "last mile" delivery also known as "backyard / front yard delivery" . So I will not talk about robotaxi, autonomous truck, ships, airplanes nor I will talk about "micro" delivery drones such as those robots that are already heavily used in hotels in China. All of these surely overlap and compete with each other in the delivery service, but talking about these would defeat the purpose of this post.
So here is my summary of notable drone delivery companies and the current state of the industry.
For starters, there are just two types of delivery drones that are being currently "heavily" deployed for last mile deliveries: with "wings" (UAV) and on wheels.
Delivery on wheels are more complicated and don't see much competition. In U.S. the main player is Serve Robotics ($SERV ). In China is Meituan ( $3690 (-2,87%) ).
Until the beginning of 2024, Amazon ( $AMZN (-1,82%) ) drone delivery service has completely underdelivered 😅 while other players have taken the lead. One of these is Wing, a subsidiary of Google parent company Alphabet ( $GOOG (-0,71%) , $GOOGL (-0,68%) ) wing.com . Wing altogether with DroneUp, flytrex (partner of Causey Aviation Unmanned) and Zipline has completed thousands of commercial air deliveries for Walmart ( $WMT (-0,48%) ).
Wing has the broadest customer base. It operates for Walmart, Doordash ( $DASH (-4,06%) ) Coles groceries ($COL (+0,88%) ), Walgreens ($CVS (+0,07%) ) and different restaurants. It operates mainly in Australia and US.
Zipline is a private company known for making hundreds of thousands of medical air deliveries in Rwanda. flyzipline.com
It's very active in U.S. , a close competitor to Wing.
In December 2022 a partnership with Jumia ( $JMIA (-1,75%) ) was announced to ease up deliveries in Africa, but since then no further development is known.
DroneUp is also private and basically it's a subsidiary of Walmart. droneupdelivery.com
In the U.S. , until 2023 only 5 drone operators had succeeded at getting air carrier certification from the FAA: Wings ($GOOGL (-0,68%) ), UPS ($UPS (+1,12%) ), Amazon ($AMZN (-1,82%)), Zipline and Causey Aviation Unmanned.
UPS operates wit Matternet's droves. Matternet is a private company. They successfully operate and deliver in dense urban environment.
Causey Aviation Unmanned is a subsidiary of the private company Causey Aviation which is a private jet charter. Causey Aviation Unmanned operates through Flytrex as a provider of Walmart air delivery. Flytrex is also private. causeyaviationunmanned.com
Other notable air drone delivery companies are Ondas holdings ( $ONDS (-0,78%) ) ondas.com . Ondas is known for its military applications in Israel, but it is actually active with Airobotics in the delivery industry airoboticsdrones.com .
The newest Prime Air drone, the MK30, has been unveiled in October 2023 and it's finally being massively deployed bringing Amazon back to the lead.
It’s unlike any other drone being used for package delivery. Faster, quieter, safer, bad weather resistant and very powerful.
At the end of 2024, these new drones replaced the old ones used to deliver in California and Texas. They will also be deployed in a new, third U.S. state and in soon-to-be-revealed destinations in Italy and the UK.
Outside of US, China is leading the way in urban drone deliveries and Meituan ( $3690 (-2,87%) ) is the current market leader both with UAV and drones on wheels.
In Ireland, Manna Aero, has already completed over 100,000 drone deliveries across various locations in Ireland and is trending to hit more than 1,000 daily deliveries in dense urban markets such in Dublin. Manna Aero is a private company manna.aero .
Exciting investment from $UBER (+0,59%) :
In 2025, Serv Robotics will $SERV will deploy 2,000 robots to increase food deliveries for $UBER (+0,59%) Eats.
$NVDA (-4,65%) and $UBER (+0,59%) are the largest shareholders of $SERV , $SERV estimates that robots on a large scale will only cost one dollar per delivery
Serve Robotics, Inc. is engaged in the development of next-generation robots for last-mile delivery services. The company offers an autonomous, all-electric robot that makes delivery sustainable and economical. The company's fleet consists of over 100 robots. The autonomous, all-electric robot is able to be present on these platforms in real time and update the status as well as accept delivery orders for customer orders on these platforms when needed. The company uses artificial intelligence methods to develop, train and deploy a variety of models on the robots that perform a variety of tasks, including detecting sidewalk surfaces, intersections, traffic signals, obstacles, pedestrians and vehicles, as well as projecting the trajectory of other dynamic agents. Its capabilities include automatic emergency braking, vehicle collision avoidance and fail-safe mechanical braking. The robots consist of a number of key systems, such as the drivetrain, power system and connectivity.
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- BERNSTEIN raises the price target for MOLLER-MAERSK from DKK 9650 to DKK 9700. Underperform. $AMKBY (-3,7%)
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-JPM Securities downgrading $GOOGL (-0,68%)
-JPM Securities downgrading $UBER (+0,59%)
- BERENBERG lowers the price target for EVONIK from EUR 20 to EUR 18. Hold. $EVK (-0,73%)
- BERNSTEIN lowers the target price for DHL GROUP from EUR 42.50 to EUR 41. Outperform. $DHL (+0,81%)
- JEFFERIES lowers the target price for LINDE from USD 550 to USD 522. Buy. $LIN (+1,11%)
- $SOFI (-2,18%) Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Downgrades to Underperform PT to $7 from $8
-UBS starting the year again with some negative data for $AAPL (-0,38%) naming China an issues
How did the markets perform in 2024 and what things didn't exist 25 years ago?
The news team wishes you a Happy New Year. A good start on the stock market, good health and everything else you could wish for.
The new year has already begun and many people like to look back. We would like to provide you with a few facts:
How did the markets perform in 2024?
DAX40: +17,92%
NASDAQ100: +26,54%
S&P500: +24,14%
Nikkei225: +20,19%
CSI300: +14,85%
Gold: +26,62%
Silver: +21,73%
Bitcoin: +123,41%
Are you satisfied with your annual performance?
You will soon be able to view your Rewind 2024 on getquin and there will also be a little surprise for you. Stay tuned and take a look, you'll find out more as soon as the Rewind is available. You'll be informed here in the app and on Instagram.
What didn't exist 25 years ago that we enjoy using and investing in today?
Snapchat $SNAP (+0,29%)
Pinterest $PINS
AirBNB $ABNB (-2,49%)
Bitcoin $BTC (-0,85%)
Tesla $TSLA (-4,03%)
Netflix $NFLX (+0,29%)
Amazon Prime $AMZN (-1,82%)
Uber $UBER (+0,59%)
Facebook and services thereof $META (-2,58%) :
Services from Google $GOOGL (-0,68%) :
GoogleMail
YouTube
Google Maps
Android
Services from Microsoft $MSFT (-0,73%) :
XBox
What else can you think of that should not be missing from the list?
We will continue to provide you with news and facts in 2025.
Best regards
Your News Team
Principais criadores desta semana
