Donald Trump wants to overturn US Chips Act + Lufthansa profits slump + DHL expects little earnings growth in 2025 + Merck aims for further profitable growth in 2024 after uprising + Kontron share price jumps to record high after order

Donald Trump wants to overturn US Chips Act

• Should the US government actually stop payments or cut commitments, this would affect many US companies: Although reporting is dominated by Intel $INTC (+0,2%), Micron $MU (+3,51%), Samsung $005930and TSMC $2330, which will receive up to 8.49 billion US dollars. But also Texas Instruments $TXN (-0,47%), Applied Materials $AMAT (+2,04%)and the University of Arizona will also receive money.
• In addition, a number of small companies are to receive between 200,000 and 300,000 US dollars. All projects can be found in a list maintained by Nist. In the case of Intel, the loss of subsidy commitments could exacerbate the current crisis.

Lufthansa $LHA (-0,44%)Profit collapses

• Strikes, higher costs and lower ticket prices caused Lufthansa's profits to plummet last year.
• The core brand Lufthansa Airlines was even in the red in its day-to-day business, as the MDax-listed company announced in Frankfurt on Thursday.
• Group-wide operating profit before special items therefore slumped by over one billion to around 1.65 billion euros.
• For the current year, CEO Carsten Spohr is aiming for a "significant" improvement.
• The already announced restructuring program should contribute to this.
• Last year, Group airlines such as Lufthansa, Swiss, Austrian and Eurowings carried 131 million passengers, seven percent more than in the previous year.
• Turnover increased by six percent to 37.6 billion euros.
• Unlike the passenger division, the cargo subsidiary Lufthansa Cargo and the maintenance division Lufthansa Technik were also able to increase their operating profit.
• The bottom line was a Group-wide surplus of just under 1.4 billion euros, 18 percent less than in the previous year.
• Nevertheless, shareholders are to receive an unchanged dividend of 30 cents per share.

DHL $DHL (+0,15%)expects only little earnings growth in 2025

• The logistics group DHL is implementing a cost-cutting program to combat sluggish global trade and the uncertain geopolitical situation.
• This is accompanied by the reduction of 8,000 jobs in the German mail and parcel business, as the company announced in Bonn on Thursday.
• CEO Tobias Meyer sees "both shadow and light" for the Group in the US customs policy.
• Meanwhile, the Bonn-based DAX-listed company expects only a sluggish improvement in earnings in 2025, after 2024 performed somewhat better than analysts had feared.
• "We continue to expect an operating result (EBIT) of over 7 billion euros in the medium term," Group CEO Tobias Meyer told the financial news agency dpa-AFX.
• He had previously targeted earnings before interest and taxes of more than EUR 7 billion for 2026.
• Similar to Brexit, the number of shipments is expected to decline on the one hand, while on the other hand DHL is likely to gain in added value, for example because more shipments will have to be cleared through customs.
• On this basis, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are expected to increase slightly to at least EUR 6 billion in 2025.
• However, analysts surveyed by the company had estimated a median of 6.3 billion euros.
• At the same time, free cash flow is expected to remain stable at EUR 3.0 billion and thus be slightly better than expected, as in 2024.
• In 2024, the DAX-listed company earned EUR 5.9 billion in day-to-day business, a good 7 percent less than in the previous year.
• However, the operating result did not fall quite as sharply as analysts had feared.
• At 3.0 billion euros, the free cash flow was also better than experts had expected.
• DHL therefore met the targets it had set itself.
• At EUR 3.3 billion, the bottom line for shareholders in 2024 was a good 9 percent less profit than in 2023.
• The Board of Management intends to propose a stable dividend of EUR 1.85 per share at the Annual General Meeting.
• The share buyback program is to be increased by EUR 2 billion to EUR 6 billion and extended until 2026.

Merck $MRK (-4,98%)aims to continue to grow profitably after the upswing in 2024

• After a weak previous year, day-to-day business at the pharmaceutical and technology group Merck KGaA has picked up again in 2024.
• The final quarter was above average.
• CEO Belen Garijo now wants to build on the upswing in the current year.
• "Merck is back on course for growth with all three businesses," said the manager in a statement on Thursday.
• "In 2025, we will once again grow profitably across the entire company."
• Shareholders are to receive a stable dividend of 2.20 euros for the past year.
• According to the statement, Merck is targeting sales of EUR 21.5 to 22.9 billion in the current year, which corresponds to organic growth of three to six percent.
• Adjusted for special effects, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) are expected to increase organically by three to eight percent to EUR 6.1 to 6.6 billion.
• Last year, Group revenue climbed by 0.8 percent year-on-year to EUR 21.16 billion, supported by good business with medicines and semiconductor materials for artificial intelligence (AI).
• Since the second half of the year, there have also been signs of an upturn in the laboratory division, after the division had suffered from weak demand for a long time following the coronavirus boom.
• The Group also kept its costs in check.
• Adjusted for special effects, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) increased by 3.3% to almost EUR 6.1 billion.
• Merck's sales and operating result were thus in line with its own targets and also more or less in line with analysts' expectations.
• Due to higher taxes, however, the Darmstadt-based company earned just under EUR 2.79 billion, around two percent less than in the previous year.

Kontron $KTN (-0,17%)share price jumps to record high after order

• Following an order, Kontron shares reached a record high of EUR 23.34 on Wednesday.
• Most recently, the share price rose by 12.9 percent to EUR 23.18 and was one of the top positions in the small cap index SDax.
• The Austrian technology group announced a further order from the automotive industry worth 40 million euros.
• This involves the delivery of highly developed sensor technologies.
• This should at least benefit the perception of the share, commented a trader.
• On February 20, Kontron had announced an order with a total volume of 250 million US dollars over several years from a "leading supplier to the automotive industry".

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Qualcomm USD 0.85
• BHP Group AUD 0.80

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 22:00 Broadcom quarterly figures
• 22:05 Hewlett Packard Enterprise quarterly figures
• No time specified: Costco Wholesale | Universal Music Quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:00 Lufthansa | DHL Group | Merck KGaA | Siltronic | Ströer | Zalando | Aareal Annual results
• 07:30 Compugroup Medical | Prosiebensat1 | Dürr | GFT Technologies | Air France-KLM | Bouygues Annual results
• 08:00 Deutsche Beteiligungs AG | Reckitt Benckise Annual Results
• 09:00 DHL Group Analyst Conference | Aareal Bank | Zalando BI-PK | Ströer Analyst and Press Conference
• 09:30 Lufthansa BI-PK
• 10:00 Merck KGaA PK | Siltronic Analyst Conference | Dürr BI-PK
• 10:45 Zalando Analyst Conference
• 11:00 DHL Group BI-PK
• 11:30 Prosiebensat1 BI-PK
• 12:30 Lufthansa Analyst Conference
• 14:00 Merck KGaA Analyst Conference | Dürr Analyst Conference
• 18:00 Vivendi Annual Results
• No time specified: Andritz | Solvay Annual figures

• Economic data

08:00 DE: Services turnover December

11:00 EU: Retail Sales January Eurozone FORECAST: +0.1% yoy previous: -0.2% yoy

12:00 TR: Turkish Central Bank, outcome of the Monetary Policy Council meeting Key interest rate FORECAST: n/a previously: 45.00%

14:15 EU: ECB, outcome of the Governing Council meeting and staff projection for growth and inflation in the eurozone Deposit rate FORECAST: 2.50% previously: 2.75%

14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 235,000 previously: 242,000

14:30 US: Trade Balance January FORECAST: -128.7 bn USD previously: -98.4 bn USD

14:30 US: Productivity ex Agriculture (2nd release) 4Q annualized PROGNOSE: +1.2% yoy 1st release: +1.2% yoy 3rd quarter: +2.3% yoy Unit labor costs PROGNOSE: +3.0% yoy Preliminary: 1st release: +3.0% yoy Previously: 3rd quarter: +0.5% yoy

The United States is facing a heavy budgetary burden. A deficit of 2 trillion US dollars, equivalent to 7% of GDP, is the result of spending of 7 trillion dollars compared to revenues of only 5 trillion dollars. This situation carries the risk of triggering a recession that could spread to the entire economy. Initial data already points to an increase in Arbeitslosenanträge im District of Columbia which is seen as an early indicator of an economic slowdown.

There are currently 3 scenarios for reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP:

• Nominal economic growth of 10% per year: However, this would involve a highly inflationary development and would hardly be politically viable, as the population is already suffering from current price increases.
• Increase in government revenue by 1 trillion dollars: As tax cuts have been the focus in the past (especially under Trump), tariffs, for example, which currently stand at 2-3%, would have to be raised to around 30%, but this could further increase inflationary pressure and exacerbate trade conflicts.
• Spending cuts of 1 trillion dollars: Given that $4 trillion for social benefits (pensions & healthcare) is considered politically untouchable and the $1 trillion interest burden could only be reduced by falling yields, which seems unrealistic if the FED pauses interest rates, the only option left would be to cut the defense budget, by $1 trillion, as well as budgets in areas such as energy, education &transportation.

These austerity measures have contributed to the rise of more populist movements (DOGE & Elon Musk) calling for a reduction in the size of government. Signaling the end of the era of excessive US fiscal commitment. At the same time, market signals, such as the outperformance defensiver Sektoren (consumer goods up 8% last month) and the 30% decline in US homebuilder equities since October, point to growing concerns about economic growth.

2. the Riyadh agreement as a potential turning point

The international geopolitical landscape is increasingly dominated by energy realism. The Trump-Administration faces a dilemma. Lower oil prices would be necessary to combat inflation, but an increase of US-Ölproduktion by 3 million barrels per day - to a total of 16 million - is unrealistic, as shale oil production has only increased by around 1 million barrels in the last three years.

A possible solution could be an agreement in Riyadh with OPEC+:

• OPEC+, in Vienna, could reverse the currently implemented production cuts of 5-6 million barrels per day in return for the lifting of sanctions against Russia and military security guarantees for the Gulf states.
• Such an agreement would accelerate the return to the classic Petrodollar System in which the proceeds from oil exports are reinvested in bonds.

The implementation of this scenario would have far-reaching consequences: Cheaper energy prices could dampen inflation, stabilize global bond markets and strengthen international equities, especially in Europe and EM. At the same time, Europe could be forced to overcome its dependencies on China (in the export sector), the US (in the security sector) and Russia (in energy supply).

3 Europe, China and the cyclical economic recovery

While the US is struggling with structural weaknesses, other regions offer attractive investment opportunities:

• Europe: After the German elections, populist parties, currently representing 29.57% of the vote, may not achieve the necessary one-third majority to create a fiscal stimulus measure, which is also quite speculative. Such a stimulus would strengthen the DAX and the Euro Stoxx50, especially in combination with possibly falling oil prices and extensive reconstruction plans in Ukraine.
• China: "Rising" real estate prices (in January, 24 out of 70 cities recorded price increases or stability in prices) and a possible consumption upswing (with retail sales rising more than 6% year-on-year) could attract international investors. For 2025, the Chinese government is planning targeted measures to promote consumption, including trade subsidies, increased social benefits and incentives for newborns. An acceleration in global purchasing managers' indices (PMI) would also boost demand for Chinese industrial products.
• Japan and South Korea: Both countries are benefiting cyclically from a recovery in the global manufacturing industry, particularly in the semiconductor sector. This includes blue-collar chips such as $ADI (-1,64%) , $MCHP (+0,71%) & $TXN (-0,47%) .

4. technology sector and limited liquidity reserves

The position of the Magnificent 7 is increasingly losing strength, partly due to the rise of Chinese AI providers such as DeepSeek. In addition, the weakness of US homebuilder stocks signals declining consumer power, with Hypothekenanträgen and have recovered again.

Another warning signal is the low liquidity reserve: the share of Barmitteln in Fondsportfolios is only 3.5%, the lowest level since 2010, which makes the markets more susceptible to corrections. Since the "sell signal" in December, the Magnificent 7 has lost 5%, while the MSCI ACWI has gained 2% - a clear indication of a Rotation in internationale Märkte.

5. investment recommendations

• A stronger weighting of long-term bonds, such as 30-year US government bonds, seems sensible, as a flattening of the yield curve & international demand (due to petrodollar recycling) could lead to falling yields.
• Buy the dip offers opportunities to enter export-oriented companies and cyclical sectors, especially in the US & China
• A focus on defensive sectors such as consumer and healthcare as well as blue-collar semiconductors is recommended, as these could benefit from a recovery in the purchasing managers' indices.
• Gold can be recommended as a hedge against geopolitical risks, while a cautious positioning in oil is advisable, as the upcoming OPEC+ negotiations could lead to increased volatility.

Graphic: AI generated

The rapid development of AI has triggered a veritable boom in data centers. Companies such as OpenAI and DeepSeek are driving this revolution and the demand for high-performance servers is growing exponentially.

However, the increase in computing power is also accompanied by massive energy consumption, an issue that is leading to global discussions about infrastructure, efficiency and future investments [1].

At the same time, the question arises as to whether there is currently an overinvestment in computing power. The Chinese AI company DeepSeek, for example, has presented a model that works more efficiently than previous large language models (LLMs).

Does this mean that we will soon need less computing power?

Or will the Jevons paradox occur instead, i.e. the effect that more efficient technologies actually increase overall consumption in the long term? [2, 3]

In this article, I will focus on the key developments in the data center sector, the growing demand for energy, regional characteristics, current challenges and potential investment opportunities.

As always, the article is intended to shed light on the background to current events, provide food for thought and give impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice.

🤖 Data centers: the foundation of the AI revolution

The growing global demand for AI-supported software and digital applications requires powerful data centers. Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that the global demand for power from data centers will increase by 50% by 2027 and by up to 165 % could increase [1].

This chart below forecasts the energy consumption of data centers (in terawatt hours) by 2030, distinguishing between AI- and non-AI-based applications in the US and the rest of the world. Total consumption is expected to rise to over 1,000 TWh by 2030 [4].

Our analysts expect data center power consumption to increase by more than 160% by 2030

Source: [4], primary: Masanet et al. (2020), Cisco, IEA, Goldman Sachs Research

This data shows how AI applications will massively increase energy consumption. The rapid increase in the area of "US AI" and "Rest of world AI" is particularly striking.

The three main reasons for this increase are

• Larger AI models:

New models such as GPT-5 or DeepSeek AI require more and more computing power. Training and operating these models requires trillions of calculations [1].

• Real-time AI applications:

Companies are integrating AI into numerous applications: from search engines to personalized financial and healthcare services.

• Cloud computing & data storage:

As digitalization progresses, the global demand for data storage and cloud services is increasing [1].

Which companies dominate the market?

On the demand side for data centers, large hyperscale cloud providers and other companies are building large language models (LLMs) that are capable of processing and understanding natural language. These models need to be trained on huge amounts of information using power-intensive processors [4].

On the supply side, hyperscale cloud companies, data center operators and asset managers are deploying large amounts of capital to build new high-capacity data centers.

These include, among others:

• Microsoft $MSFT (-0,88%) : Operator of Azure Cloud and partner of OpenAI
• Alphabet $GOOGL (-0,14%) : With Google Cloud and DeepMind
• Amazon $AMZN (+0,12%) : AWS, the world's leading cloud provider
• Meta $META (+1,62%) : Develops its own AI chips and continues to expand its infrastructure

In addition, specialized data center providers such as Equinix $EQIX (-0,98%) and Digital Realty $DLR (-1,47%) as they supply physical infrastructure to the hyperscalers [6].

According to Goldman Sachs Research, demand for data center infrastructure will increasingly outstrip supply in the coming years.

The utilization rate of existing data centers is expected to rise from around 85% in 2023 to more than 95% by the end of 2026. However, the situation is expected to ease from 2027 onwards as new data centers are commissioned and demand growth driven by AI slows down (see chart below) [1].

Goldman Sachs currently estimates that the global power consumption of the data center market is around 55 gigawatts (GW). This is made up of cloud computing workloads (54%), traditional workloads such as email or data storage (32%) and AI (14%) [1].

For the future, analysts predict that electricity demand will increase to 84 GW by 2027. The share of AI is expected to grow to 27%, while the cloud share will fall to 50% and traditional workloads to 23% [1].

By the end of 2030, around 122 gigawatts (GW) of data center capacity will be online.

At this point, I asked myself as a layman how the units mentioned so far are to be understood, in my first graphic I speak of 1,000 TWh of energy consumption of all data centers by 2030 and now here is talk of 122 GW of data center capacity? In order not to go completely beyond the scope of the article, I have added a section at the very end in case some of you also feel like a layman and want to put the "units" into perspective.

... and now on with the article...

One central problem remains:
Where does all the energy come from?

⚡️Energieversorgung: Can the grid keep up?

According to estimates by Goldman Sachs, more than 720 billion US dollars will have to be invested in expanding the power grid worldwide by 2030 in order to supply the new data centers with sufficient energy [1].

Europe in particular, where electricity consumption was expected to decline for many years, is experiencing a veritable "demand shock" [1].

Which energy sources supply data centers?

• Natural gas & battery storage:

Natural gas is seen as a realistic short-term solution to meet continuous demand. It serves as a bridging technology until renewable energy and storage solutions are further developed, as renewable energy is not available around the clock [4].

• Renewable energies:

Wind and solar energy could cover around 80 % of demand in the long term, provided that sufficient storage solutions are integrated [4].

In practice, solar plants run on average only about 6 hours per day, while wind power plants run on average 9 hours per day. There is also a daily volatility in the capacity of these sources, depending on the radiation of the sun and the strength of the wind [4].

The graph shows the fluctuations in capacity factors for wind and solar energy in the USA in 2023. The capacity factor indicates how efficiently an energy source utilizes its maximum output throughout the year.

• Wind energy (light blue line): The highest capacity factors occur in the winter months (Jan-March) and drop significantly in the summer months (Jun-Aug).

• Solar energy (dark blue line): Efficiency rises in the spring (Mar-May) and reaches its maximum in the summer months (Jun-Aug) before falling in the winter (Nov-Dec).

The graph illustrates that wind and solar energy can complement each other seasonally: While wind is more efficient in winter, solar energy provides the highest yields in summer. This shows how important a balanced energy mix is to ensure security of supply.

In addition to finding environmentally friendly energy sources to power data centers, technology providers can reduce emissions intensity through efficiency gains.

The following chart shows the development of the workload and energy consumption of data centers between 2015 and 2023. Although the workload almost tripled, energy consumption remained almost constant until 2019 thanks to efficiency gains. The efficiency gains then slowed down from 2020 onwards.

Source: [4], primary: Masanet et al. (2020), IEA, Cisco, Goldman Sachs Research

This chart supports the discussion on the Jevons paradox (see below). Efficiency gains could be offset or even exceeded in the long term by higher workloads and AI demand. This highlights the need to make data center energy sources more sustainable.

• Nuclear energy:

Meanwhile, governments are also becoming more supportive of nuclear energy on the whole. Switzerland is reconsidering the use of nuclear generators for its electricity supply, while nuclear energy enjoys bipartisan support in the US and the Australian opposition party has put forward plans to introduce nuclear reactors [4].

Participants at the COP28 conference at the end of 2023, an annual summit convened by the United Nations to combat climate change, agreed to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050 [4].

Nuclear energy is considered the ideal option for basic power supply as it provides a reliable and constant supply of energy.

As a result, more and more large tech companies such as Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft are turning to small modular nuclear power plants (SMRs).

📊 Increasing efficiency & the Jevons paradox

With new technologies such as DeepSeek, AI could work more efficiently in the future. But does greater efficiency automatically mean that less computing power is required?

The Jevons paradox: More efficiency = more consumption?

The Jevons paradox describes the fact that increases in efficiency often do not lead to lower consumption, but to higher consumption overall.

-Example:

In the 19th century, more efficient steam engines did not lead to lower coal consumption; on the contrary, as the machines became cheaper and more versatile, coal consumption actually increased.

With cars: more fuel-efficient engines did not lead to less gasoline consumption, but to people driving more cars.

-Applied to AI:

As AI models become more efficient, the cost per computation decreases. This makes AI applications attractive in even more areas, which in turn leads to a higher overall demand for computing power.

🌎 Regional distribution and global expansion of data center infrastructure

Current distribution: Where are the data centers located today?

Today, most data centers are located in the Asia-Pacific region and North America. Well-known locations are:

North America:

- Northern Virginia

- San Francisco Bay Area

Asia: Beijing

- Beijing

- Shanghai

These regions are characterized by high computing power, intensive data traffic and strong demand from corporate campuses [1].

The chart also shows the historical development of data center capacity by region (North America, APAC, etc.) from 2017 to 2024. The figures illustrate how fast the infrastructure for the AI revolution is growing and underlines why the energy requirements of data centers are increasing so rapidly.

The increase in capacity from around 20 GW in 2017 to almost 60 GW in 2024 shows an enormous growth trend. This correlates directly with the increasing demand for AI applications and cloud computing.

How is supply growing?

Goldman Sachs Research estimates that global data center capacity will increase to around 122 GW by the end of 2030, as mentioned above. The share of hyperscalers and specialized operators will increase from the current 60% to around 70% [1].

• Asia-Pacific:

The largest expansion of data centers has been recorded here in the past ten years.

• North America:

The largest expansion of new data centers is planned in North America over the next five years.

📈 Investment opportunities: Some winners of the AI and data center revolution

US shares e.g.:

• Carrier Global $CARR (+3,58%) : Precise cooling technology and air conditioning for data centers
• Vertiv Holdings $VRT (+3,7%) : Specialist in cooling and power solutions specifically for data centers
• Brookfield Renewable Partners $BEP.UN : Leading provider of renewable energy (hydropower, solar, wind) - supply contracts (PPAs) with data centers
• ON Semiconductor $ON (+2,67%) : Leader in chips for energy efficiency and thermal management. Solutions reduce power consumption in data centers and support AI integration
• Texas Instrumentes $TXN (-0,47%) : Energy-saving semiconductor products used in data center servers
• Equinix $EQIX (-0,98%) : Specialized in data center infrastructure
• Digital Realty $DLR (-1,47%) : Provider of physical infrastructure for data centers
• IBM $IBM (+1%) : Quantum computing technologies that potentially consume less energy and development of energy-efficient AI solutions
• Arista Networks $ANET (+4,38%) : Specialist in high-speed networking products for data centers
• Nvidia $NVDA (+4,58%) : Leader in AI GPUs, Leader in AI training market. Best choice for large AI models and data center training
• AMD $AMD (+2,9%) Competing with Nvidia with its own AI chips, but better positioned in the AI interference market where energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness are key. The interference market will be the next most important market, perhaps even the more important one.
• Broadcom $AVGO (+3,6%) Profits from network solutions for data centers
• Microsoft $MSFT (-0,88%) Google $GOOGL (-0,14%) Amazon $AMZN (+0,12%) : The big hyperscalers investing heavily in AI and cloud

European stocks e.g.:

• Siemens Energy $ENR (-0,97%) Important role in modernizing power grids, integrating renewable energies and improving storage solutions for data center reliability
• Schneider Electric $SU (+0,33%) : Leader in the development of energy management and cooling technology for data centers - specialty in the automation of both systems.
• ASML $ASML (+1,56%) : Indispensable for modern chip production
• Infineon $IFX (+1%) and STMicroelectronics $STM (+1,31%) : Leading semiconductor companies with a focus on AI applications
• RWE $RWE (-0,8%) and Enel $ENEL (-0,01%) Utilities that are increasingly focusing on renewable energies for data centers

Japanese stocks e.g:

• Daikin Industries $6367 (+0,85%) World market leader in air conditioning and cooling, offers specialized cooling systems for data centers and AI-supported plant management systems to further increase efficiency
• Tokyo Electron $8035 (+1,74%) : Important supplier for semiconductor manufacturing
• Mitsubishi Heavy Industries $7011 (-3,34%) : Works on the development of new nuclear power plants to secure the energy supply

🧠 Conclusion: AI, data centers & energy as the trend of the century?

Although some analysts warn of possible overinvestment, the figures indicate that the demand for computing power and energy for AI data centers will continue to rise sharply.

• Efficiency gains from models such as DeepSeek or new chip technologies could reduce energy consumption per computer, but the Jevons paradox means that overall demand will increase because more efficient systems will be used more often.

The biggest winners are therefore:

• Semiconductor companies: They supply the AI chips needed.
• Data center operators: They build the necessary infrastructure.
• Energy suppliers: They ensure the energy supply for the AI revolution.

In the long term, these companies could be among the biggest beneficiaries of the coming decades.

👨🏽‍💻 How do I position myself?

Personally, I think I am well positioned with the NASDAQ 100 $CSNDX (+0,49%) (portfolio share of 23%), as the focus is on US technology and growth stocks. The ETF complements my All-World with a stronger weighting in innovative sectors such as AI and cloud computing.

In the near future, I will also take a closer look at Daikin Industrie $6367 (+0,85%) share in order to increase the exposure to Japan and the share price offers an entry point at first glance.

In addition, AMD $AMD (+2,9%) has also caught my attention, the reason being its positioning in the aforementioned interference market. Most of the capital is currently flowing into the expansion of new AI models. However, as soon as these become a "commodity" and everyone uses them, most of the capital will probably flow into the interference market (market for the application of AI models).

Furthermore, I have Siemens AG $SIE (+0,81%) with approx. 2.3% portfolio share (still growing to approx. 4%), which I also see as well positioned for the future for the following reasons (in the context of the article):

Network stability

• Develops technologies for intelligent power grids ("smart grids"), essential for integrating renewable energies into the supply of data centers.

Data center control

• Provides automation and monitoring systems that optimize the energy consumption and efficiency of data centers

Efficient building structure

• The "Smart Infrastructure" division supports data centers with energy-efficient solutions for lighting, air conditioning and building monitoring

Not directly cooling systems, but:

• offers technologies that increase the energy efficiency of cooling systems by optimizing energy flows and data analysis

What is your opinion❓

• Which companies do you have on your radar?
• Is there a threat of overinvestment or are we just at the beginning of a century revolution?

Thanks for reading! 🤝

...Said digression follows after the sources...

__________

Sources:

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/ai-to-drive-165-increase-in-data-center-power-demand-by-2030

[2] "The Coal Question"
http://digamo.free.fr/peart96.pdf

[3] https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons-Paradoxon

[4] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/is-nuclear-energy-the-answer-to-ai-data-centers-power-consumption

[5] https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai

[6] https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/global-data-center-trends-2024

__________

🧭 Digression: on gigawatts and terawatt hours

In order to understand the relationship between the two figures, 122 GW (gigawatts) and 1,000 TWh (terawatt hours), it is important to clarify the units and their meaning:

• 122 GW (gigawatts):

Refers to the current average power capacity that data centers worldwide require to function. Power (measured in GW) describes the amount of energy consumed per second. This is therefore a snapshot of energy requirements.

• 1,000 TWh (terawatt hours):

This is an indication of energy consumption over a certain period of time, in this case one year. It describes how much energy is required in total in 12 months.

The forecast of 1,000 TWh is slightly below the value resulting from the calculation. The graph shows values slightly above 1,000 TWh; according to the calculation based on 122 GW of power capacity, energy consumption should be around 1,069 TWh.

Nevertheless, general reasons for deviations may be as follows:

• Efficiency improvements: Data centers could operate more efficiently through improved cooling, optimized hardware and software and thus consume less energy.
• Peak vs. average consumption: The figure of 122 GW could reflect peak demand, while the actual average annual demand is somewhat lower.
• Adjustments to the model: It is possible that the forecast of 1,000 TWh is conservative and does not take into account all additional loads or regional differences.

This shows how much the demand for data centers and energy will increase due to AI and digitalization by 2030

__________

In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.

Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

__________

In this post:

• Influence on inflation
• New tariffs in force
• Reaction of the countries
• Consequences for the global economy
• Winners & losers
• Investment opportunities

__________

The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].

The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.

The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.

I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.

After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.

A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:

💰 Influence on inflation

On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:

The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.

Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.

🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned

As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]

But this is just the beginning:

From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:

• computer chips
• pharmaceuticals
• Steel, aluminum and copper
• Oil and gas imports (but only from February 18 with reduced 10% tariffs so as not to burden US petrol prices immediately).

🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation

Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.

Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:

"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"

The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:

"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"

🔄 Canada's reaction:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".

The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:

• The new tariffs could increase the cost of living of an average US household by 800 dollars per year.
• The oil and gas tariffs could increase the price of petrol in the USA by up to 20 cents per liter.

But Trump remains firm:

"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."

🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy

(a) Rising prices in the USA

• Technology & electronicsHigher chip prices are hitting companies such as Apple $AAPL (-0,26%) , Dell $DELL and HP $HPQ (+0,94%) as many of their components come from China.

• Healthcare costs: Pharmaceutical companies such as CVS Health $CVS (-7,16%) and Walgreens Boots Alliance $WBA (-1,17%) are facing higher purchasing costs.

• Construction & InfrastructureHigher steel prices are weighing on companies such as Lennar $LEN (-0,72%) D.R. Horton $DHI (+3,08%) and Caterpillar $CAT (+1,69%) .

(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?

• China could impose tariffs on US products, which could affect e.g. Archer Daniels Midland $ADM (+1,57%) Boeing $BA (+1,72%) and Qualcomm $QCOM (-1,18%) would be affected.

• The EU could make US imports more expensive, which would affect Tesla $TSLA (+3,88%) , Ford $F (-0,43%) and General Motors $GM (+1,08%) could be harmed.

(c) Effects on the stock market

• Volatility is increasing as there is uncertainty about the consequences for various industries.

• Particularly affected: Technology and automotive stocks with global supply chains.

🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?

Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs

US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper

• Nucor $NUE (-1,06%) , U.S. Steel $X (-1,32%) and Freeport-McMoRan $FCX (-0,59%) could benefit as foreign competition becomes more expensive as a result of the tariffs.

Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies

• Pfizer $PFE (-0,97%) Moderna $MRNA (-1,39%) and Eli Lilly $LLY (-1,83%) could gain market share.

Energy companies with US production

• ExxonMobil $XOM (-0,76%) , Chevron$CVX (-0,46%) and Expand Energy $CHK (+1,04%) could benefit from rising prices for US oil and gas.

Chip manufacturers with US production

• Intel $INTC (+0,2%) and Texas Instruments$TXN (-0,47%) have US factories and could gain market share.

😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs

Chip manufacturers with global supply chains

• Apple $AAPL (-0,26%) NVIDIA $NVDA (+4,58%) , AMD $AMD (+2,9%) are dependent on Asian imports and could see higher production costs.

Car manufacturers with global suppliers

• Tesla $TSLA (+3,88%) , Ford $F (-0,43%) , General Motors $GM (+1,08%) are under pressure because components from Mexico and Canada could become more expensive.

Companies with strong export business

• Boeing $BA (+1,72%) and Caterpillar $CAT (+1,69%) suffer from possible retaliatory tariffs.

US retailers with a high import share

• Walmart $WMT (-1,71%) , Target $TGT (-2,44%) and Nike $NKE (-1,12%) could have to pass on rising prices to customers.

🧠 Possible investment strategies

Favor defensive sectors:

• Utilities (e.g. NextEra Energy $NEE (+2,26%) Duke Energy $DUK (-3,1%) ) and healthcare companies (e.g. UnitedHealth $UNH (-17,87%) , Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-3,95%) ) remain more stable.

Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":

• Intel $INTC (+0,2%) , Eli Lilly $LLY (-1,83%) , Nucor $NUE (-1,06%) could benefit in the long term.

Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?

With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.

❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?

Thanks for reading! 🤝

__________

Sources:

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-finance-chartbook-44-charts-that-tell-the-story-of-markets-and-the-economy-to-start-2025-105856766.html

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-charts-show-why-markets-are-skittish-about-trumps-tariff-policy-144318249.html

[3] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/usa-unter-trump/trumps-verhaengt-zoelle-gegen-kanada-mexiko-und-china-110269990.html?

[4]

https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2025-01/64440108-trump-usa-werden-ab-mitte-februar-zoelle-auf-computerchips-stahl-sowie-oel-und-gasimporte-erheben-015.htm

[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html

The first month of the new year is already over. While the first half of January was characterized by Trump euphoria and rising markets, the second half was much more volatile, particularly due to DeepSeek and its impact on the AI sector.

For me personally, the savings rate was unfortunately somewhat lower due to the issue of house building, as already mentioned at the end of 2024. Currently (and probably also for the coming months) it will therefore only be around €500-700.

I am aware that this is of course still a very high savings rate, but it is significantly lower than the ~€2,000 of recent years.

Also very exciting: In November, I withdrew over €20,000 from my custody account to raise the equity for the bank. Just 2 months later, my custody account is back to the same value of almost €300,000.

But now it's finally time to look at the hard figures:

In total, January was +3,9%. This corresponds to price gains of ~11.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +3.5% and the S&P500 +2.7%

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers shows an unusual picture in January:

The biggest loser by far is NVIDIA! With price losses of almost €3,000, the emergence of DeepSeek caused substantial losses in the portfolio.

The other losers, on the other hand, are only worth a side note. After NVIDIA, Apple has already lost significantly less with ~€400 losses. The remaining loser stocks then only lost around €200.

On the winners' side at the top with a total of almost €2,000 in price gains is the Meta share. Followed by Bitcoin with €1,500 price gains and 2 other tech stocks: Alphabet with €1,200 and Crowdstrike with €1,000. 5th place goes to Starbucks, also with gains of almost €1,000.

The performance-neutral movements were clearly negative in January, as some of the cash was used to buy the property. The property is of course also an asset, but I would rather focus on liquid assets here.

The performance-neutral movements in relation to my portfolio were ~€600

Dividend:

• The dividends in January were 30% above the previous year at ~€166
• TSMC is in the lead with over 30€ (gross) dividend every 3 months.

Buys & Sells:

• I bought in November for significantly reduced ~600€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue ChipsMicrosoft $MSFT (-0,88%) Stryker $SYK (-2,3%) Apple $AAPL (-0,26%) Home Depot $HD (-1,13%) Starbucks $SBUX (+0,45%) Texas Instruments $TXN (-0,47%) Nike $NKE (-1,12%) Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-3,03%) Lockheed Martin $LMT (-3,29%) LVMH $MC (+0,42%)
• 
  Growth: -
• ETFsMSCI World $XDWD and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP
• Crypto: Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH
• Sales -

YouTube:

In mid-January, I uploaded my first video to YouTube. I am particularly proud of a video explaining my dividend strategy. The video has already reached almost 200 views and a playback time of ~10 hours!

Even though I'm still not really sure what exactly I want to do on YouTube, I really enjoy editing videos and talking about shares.

That's why I created my January portfolio update as a video for the first time. Of course I would love to hear your feedback!

https://youtu.be/SD8ZKVWbUGA

Target 2025

Building a house makes it particularly difficult to formulate a goal this year.

A certain savings rate? Difficult if additional costs are suddenly added

A certain deposit value? Also difficult, as I can't really back this up with my savings rate this year.

Nevertheless, I would formulate the following goal for this year:

Current portfolio balance is €300,000. I would estimate additional investments at ~€15,000. With an average market return of ~7%, that would be price gains of ~€21,000.

This would put my portfolio at €330,000 to €340,000 at the end of 2025.

-> I would therefore aim for a portfolio value of well over €300,000, so that a 2% fluctuation does not lead directly back below €300k.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy