The week of March 17, 2025 brings with it some of the most anticipated earnings releases.

After much deliberation, we have sold our position in Tencent with a heavy heart.

Tencent was one of our largest positions and also one of our first purchases in the value portfolio. However, our growth expectations were not fulfilled. Many risks relating to regulation in the gaming sector by the Chinese government have materialized. In the long term, there are of course other risks such as an escalation of the Taiwan conflict.

At the current price, we have therefore decided to increase our cash holding and sell our shares. Overall, the return was just under 20% in around 4 years. Special dividends in particular had a positive impact on the result.

China's head of state Xi Jinping recently held a meeting with the board members of major tech companies. The result? A sharp rise in the price of shares such as Alibaba $BABA (+2,04%)Tencent $TCEHY (+1%) and BYD $1211 (+5,33%) ! 📈

Why is this important? Xi has sent a strong signal of support to the private sector. The message: China wants to support its economy. The Saxo APAC research team emphasizes that Xi encouraged entrepreneurs to focus on their development and to operate in accordance with the law.

Ask yourselves: do you believe that such meetings actually have a long-term impact on the stock market? Or is it just a flash in the pan? Discuss with us! 👍

With the current prices of Alibaba at EUR 121.40, Tencent at EUR 62.11 and BYD at EUR 44.66, we can see how important such political signals are for the market. What do you think of the Chinese government's strategy? 🤔

Sea Limited ($SE (+0,97%) ) is a versatile company from Singapore that has developed a super app has built a strong ecosystem of e-commerce, gaming and FinTech. After explosive growth in recent years and a subsequent fall in the share price, many investors are asking themselves: Does Sea Ltd still have potential for a turnaround?

Overview: What does Sea Limited do?

Sea Limited is active in three core areas:

✅ Shopee (e-commerce): One of the largest e-commerce platforms in Southeast Asia, Taiwan and Brazil. Competition for Alibaba (Lazada), Tokopedia and MercadoLibre.

✅ Garena (Gaming): Developer of the globally successful mobile game Free Fire. Formerly the engine of growth, now weakening.

✅ SeaMoney (FinTech): Digital financial services, including lending and payment processing, strongly integrated into Shopee.

Sea Limited pursues a vertical business model where the different divisions reinforce each other - Shopee drives SeaMoney, while Garena used to deliver high profits to fund expansions.

Competition: Who are the competitors?

🔸 Alibaba $BABA (+2,04%)
(Lazada.) & Tokopedia - Strong e-commerce competition in Southeast Asia.

🔸 Amazon
$AMZN (+0,77%) - A growing threat, especially in markets such as Brazil

🔸 MercadoLibre $MELI (+2,26%) - The market leader in Latin America and a direct opponent in Brazil.

🔸 Tencent $TCEHY (+1%)
& NetEase
$NTES (+3,92%) - Strong competition in the gaming segment, especially in China.

🔸 Revolut, Grab $GRAB (+0,98%)
& Ant Group - FinTech competitors that offer similar services.

Opportunities: Why could Sea Limited be a comeback story?

✅ E-commerce remains strong: Shopee remains the market leader in several Asian countries. Despite economic uncertainties, online retail is growing in the long term.

✅ SeaMoney as a silent winner: The FinTech segment is growing steadily and can become a new source of income for Sea Ltd through digital payment services and loans.

✅ Profitability focus: After years of aggressive growth with high losses, the company is now focusing more on cost reductions and profitability - a sign that Sea Ltd wants to operate more sustainably.

✅ Expansion in Latin America: Shopee has grown particularly strongly in Brazil. If the company can establish itself there permanently, that would be a big plus.

✅ Gaming as untapped potential: If Free Fire stabilizes or Sea Ltd develops new successful games, Garena could become a growth driver again.

Risks: What could continue to weigh on Sea Limited?

⚠️ Declining gaming sales:
Free Fire was once the biggest profit generator, but user numbers are falling. Without a new hit, Garena could continue to weaken.

⚠️ Competitive pressure in e-commerce: Alibaba, Tokopedia and Amazon are putting massive pressure on Sea Ltd in Asia and Latin America. Defending market share will be expensive.

⚠️ Regulatory risks: In Asia in particular, there are always new regulations for FinTechs and online retailers that could slow down Sea Ltd's growth.

⚠️ Macroeconomic uncertainties: Rising interest rates and weak consumer behavior could have a negative impact on business - both in e-commerce and in the lending business.

⚠️ Cost cutting vs. growth: Sea Ltd is trying to become more profitable while expanding into new markets. The balancing act between growth and cost control is not easy.

Conclusion: turnaround opportunity or value trap?

Sea Limited is still one of the most exciting technology companies in Asia. The focus on profitability is positive, but success depends heavily on whether the company can stabilize its gaming division and defend Shopee against the competition.

Those who believe in the long-term potential of the Southeast Asian market and are prepared to accept short-term volatility could find a promising turnaround in Sea Ltd could be a promising turnaround opportunity.

What do you think? Is Sea Limited on its way to a comeback or is it still a risky bet?🚀

I would like to initiate a discussion on the occasion of the recently announced 500 billion dollar Stargate project in the USA.

Do you think it is possible for Europe to catch up with the existing technological backlog? Or is "Stargate" the final nail in the coffin? And which countries do you see at the forefront of the AI age in the future?

For me, these countries are on the winning side:

USA 🇺🇸 - The USA has been at the forefront of technology right from the start. OpenAI (ChatGPT), Alphabet $GOOGL (+0,94%) (Gemini), Meta $META (-1,77%) Microsoft $MSFT (+0,1%) .... The list of companies relevant to the industry is long. Nowhere else in the world is more invested in AI. "Stargate" will now increase this imbalance many times over

China 🇨🇳 - China acts independently of the West and yet is still a major player with companies such as Tencent $TCEHY (+1%) , Alibaba $BABA (+2,04%) , Huawei, Xiaomi $1810 (+2,92%) and Baidu $9888 (+4,01%) are ideally positioned. Chinese companies are fast and innovative. The gigantic subsidies from the Chinese government also play a decisive role in this context. Another advantage is that the Chinese are currently receiving energy from Russia virtually as a gift.

Japan 🇯🇵 - With SoftBank, Japan has $9984 (+4,92%) a real AI champion in its country. In Japan, NVIDIA and SoftBank $NVDA (+1,46%) and SoftBank are building a joint innovative AI infrastructure. The fact that SoftBank and OpenAI are to be the lead partners in the Stargate project and that Masayoshi Son (CEO of SoftBank) will chair the new company will benefit Japan. The huge assets that are being built up there will flow back into the home country in one way or another. The close cooperation with the government (+high subsidies), the leading position in robotics and the recent developments in the semiconductor industry should also be noted.

Singapore 🇸🇬 - Very small country, lots of money, very good government, very well-educated population, lots of expats, lots of foreign investment, very few logistical challenges as a city state...... So things are looking VERY good for Singapore.

UAE 🇦🇪 /Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦/Qatar 🇶🇦 - Rich Gulf states that will invest billions in AI projects abroad (e.g. UAE participation in "Stargate"). They will generate large returns on these investments, while at the same time investing in the digitalization of their own country, thereby bringing great prosperity to their relatively small populations. Although there is also a large expat community in the UAE, including in the field of AI, I think that the Gulf states will mainly benefit from their investment funds.

NXP Semiconductors takes over Austrian software company + US blacklist weighs on sentiment in China + VW management level salary waiver of over 300 million euros

NXP $NXPI (+0,51%)Semiconductors takes over Austrian software company

• The European-American chip manufacturer NXP Semiconductors wants to take over the Austrian software company TTTech Auto.
• The semiconductor group is prepared to pay 625 million dollars for the purchase.
• The acquisition is intended to strengthen the automotive division.
• NXP is already one of the largest chip suppliers to the global automotive industry.
• TTTech Auto offers software for the digital control of cars.
• The start-up has its own development and program platform and is already working together with NXP.
• Together they develop programs for software-defined vehicles (SDV).

Markets in the US and Asia / US blacklist weighs on sentiment in China

• While the political tensions between Washington and Beijing are once again weighing on the Chinese stock markets, the Seoul stock exchange is also up significantly, supported by gains in the share price of heavyweight Samsung Electronics.
• The Tokyo stock exchange reacted to the negative cues from Wall Street with slight losses.
• In Shanghai, the Composite Index lost 1.2 percent after the US contradicted reports that the planned higher tariffs by the new US administration under Donald Trump could be less drastic than previously assumed.
• Technology stocks sold off after disappointing statements by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sent Nvidia shares $NVDA (+1,46%) had sent the Nvidia share plummeting.
• Tencent $TCEHY (+1%) remained under pressure and lost 2.6 percent.
• They had already fallen by over 7 percent the previous day after the USA blacklisted Tencent and other Chinese companies due to suspected links to the Chinese military.

VW $VOW (+0,37%)Management level salary waiver of over 300 million euros

• Volkswagen's management level is participating in the cost-cutting program by 2030 with a salary waiver of over 300 million euros, with the contribution of the Board of Management being disproportionately high, says Chief Human Resources Officer Gunnar Kilian.
• The restructuring program provides for the reduction of 35,000 jobs in Germany, with 29,000 jobs to be cut in Lower Saxony, without compulsory redundancies.

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Comcast USD 0.31

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• No time specified: Samsung key data 2024

• Quarterly figures / company dates Europe
• 07:00 Grenke new business and contribution margin 4Q
• 08:00 Shell Q4 turnover

• Economic data

08:00 DE: New orders November seasonally adjusted FORECAST: 0.0% yoy previously: -1.5% yoy | Manufacturing sales November seasonally adjusted FORECAST: n.a. previous: -1.2% yoy

08:00 DE: Retail sales November seasonally adjusted real OUTLOOK: +1.0% yoy previous: -0.5% yoy

08:45 FR: Consumer Confidence December PROGNOSE: 90 previous: 90

11:00 EU: Producer Prices November Eurozone OUTLOOK: +1.0% yoy/-1.8% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy/-3.2% yoy

11:00 EU: Economic Sentiment Index December Economic Sentiment Eurozone Forecast: 95.6 Previous: 95.8 Eurozone Industrial Confidence Forecast: -12.1 Previous: -11.1 Eurozone Consumer Confidence Forecast: -14.5 Previous: -14.5 Previous: -13.8

14:15 US: ADP Labor Market Report December Private Sector Employment FORECAST: +136,000 Previous: +146,000 jobs

14:30 US: Initial jobless claims previous week FORECAST: 215,000 Previous: 211,000

20:00 US: Minutes of the December 17/18 FOMC meeting

21:00 US: Consumer Credit 11/24

$700 (+1,44%)
$TCEHY (+1%)
$80700

The Department of Defense today classified Tencent as a "Chinese military company operating in the United States".

Tencent shares plummet after being blacklisted as a Chinese defense contractor by the Ministry of Defense.

Tencent is owned by dozens of state pension funds.

It's time for 100% divestment from China-based companies.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3293654/us-adds-tencent-catl-list-chinese-firms-allegedly-helping-beijings-military

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9q78wn9g8zo

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-06/us-adds-tencent-to-chinese-military-blacklist-shares-decline