Postos
22Moody's $MCO (+0,1%)
MCO is primarily known for credit ratings, but also offers financial analysis and risk management tools.
The share has grown at a CAGR of 15.8 % since 2001 and has fallen by 18 % since February 2024.
Reasons for the attractiveness of MCO:
It is now slowly becoming clear who has what it takes to make good profits in the coming years.
Here are my top 30 companies by category, which I am particularly looking at in the current crash.
Some are still overvalued, others are already very attractive at the current price level.
Tier 1 (high corporate quality and strong growth)
Airbnb $ABNB (+0,29%)
Alphabet $GOOGL (-1,98%)
Amazon $AMZN (+0,25%)
ASML $ASML (-0,08%)
Axon $AXON (+2,31%)
Cadence $CDNS (+3,35%)
Constellation Software $CSU (+0,32%)
Crowdstrike $CRWD (+2,47%)
Fair Isaac $FICO (+1,22%)
Hermes $RMS (-0,06%)
Intuit $INTU (+0,22%)
Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (+1,9%)
Mastercard $MA (-0,21%)
Meta $META (+0,53%)
Netflix $NFLX (+0,35%)
Microsoft $MSFT (+1,32%)
Palantir $PLTR (+4,68%)
Tesla $TSLA (+10,24%)
Tier-2 (high business quality and moderate growth)
Booking $BKNG (+0,21%)
Costco $COST (+0,14%)
Ferrari $RACE (+1,1%)
Moody's $MCO (+0,1%)
MSCI $MSCI (+1,01%)
Transdigm $TDG (+0,92%)
Tier-3 (medium / solid corporate quality and strong growth)
Hims & Hers $HIMS (-0,04%)
Robinhood $HOOD (+1,7%)
Roblox $RBLX
Shopify $SHOP (+2,12%)
Spotify $SPOT (+2,68%)
The Trade Desk $TTD (-0,15%)
I bought on Friday and am buying again today - even in the course of the next few days and weeks, when we could probably see even lower prices.
Where are you buying?
In uncertain times, it is important to keep a watchlist so that you can pick up stable shares at bargain prices. I hope we go down a few more levels, another -20% would be nice, even if the short to medium-term price losses hurt.
I currently have almost 30 stocks on my watchlist, some of which are attractive in terms of price, while others are still far too high for me. I have not listed stocks that are already in my portfolio and that I would like to buy (in order of dividend amount):
Hercules Capital $HTGC (+0,7%) or Main Street Capital $MAIN (-0,6%)
Chevron $CVX (-0,13%)
Vinci SA $DG (-0,1%)
United Parcel Service $UPS (-0,57%)
3i Infrastructure $3IN (+0,54%)
Iron Mountain $IRM (+2,92%)
Micro Star International $MSS
Nextera Energy $NEE (+0,17%)
Partners Group $PGHN (+0,63%)
Itochu Shoji $8001 (-0,12%)
Canadian National Railway $CNR (-0,36%)
Svenska Cellulosa $SCA B (-2,82%)
VAT $VAT
Investor AB $IVSB
Assa Abloy $ASSA B (+1,9%)
Linde $LIN (+1,07%)
John Deere $DE (-0,43%)
Landstar Systems $LSTR (-3,25%)
Dover Corporation $DOV (-0,13%)
Alimentation Couche-Tard $ATD (+0,39%)
ASML $ASML (-0,08%)
Infineon Technologies $IFX (+1,84%)
Sherwin-Williams $SHW (-1,19%)
Tencent $700 (+1,13%)
Microsoft $MSFT (+1,32%)
S&P Global Inc. $SPGI (-0,15%) or Moody's Corp. $MCO (+0,1%)
Visa $V (-0,06%) or Mastercard $MA (-0,21%)
Ferrari $RACE (+1,1%)
Which stocks do you have on your watchlist?
hey when would you join $MCO (+0,1%) get in ?
i think the value would fit perfectly into my portfolio
vg
Warren Buffett remains a heavyweight on the stock market. In his latest letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, he emphasizes the importance of his US holdings and shows interest in Japan. 💼
Buffett emphasizes that Berkshire holds shares in large, profitable companies such as Apple $AAPL (+0,28%)American Express $AXP (-0,64%), Coca-Cola $KO (-0,72%) and Moody's $MCO (+0,1%) . These companies generate high returns on the capital invested. At the end of the year, these investments were worth a total of USD 272 billion.
One exciting point is his strategy of buying shares when others are selling. Buffett emphasizes that it is rare for exceptional companies to be completely for sale. But fractions of these "treasures" can be bought on Wall Street from Monday to Friday.
With regard to Japan, Berkshire has increased its investments in this market. This shows that Buffett is also taking advantage of international opportunities to diversify his portfolio. Berkshire's current cash position is an impressive USD 334 billion. This means that Buffett remains one of the most influential investors in the world.
ASML $ASML (-0,08%) (semiconductor equipment)
Visa $V (-0,06%) (payment transactions)
Mastercard $MA (-0,21%) (payment transactions)
Moody's $MCO (+0,1%) (credit ratings)
S&P Global $SPGI (-0,15%) (credit ratings and indices)
Hermès $RMS (-0,06%) (luxury goods)
Fair Isaac Corporation $FICO (+1,22%) (credit scoring)
Coca-Cola $KO (-0,72%) (beverages)
Apple $AAPL (+0,28%) (consumer electronics and technology)
Nvidia $NVDA (+4,72%) (AI and GPUs)
Also also worth mentioningbut not in the top 10:
Transdigm $TDG (+0,92%) (aerospace)
MSCI $MSCI (+1,01%) (financial services)
Cadence $CDNS (+3,35%) (EDA software)
Synopsys $SNPS (+2,78%) (EDA software)
Ferrari $RACE (+0,02%) (luxury cars)
What do you think? Have I forgotten an interesting company / share?
In the long term, $MCO (+0,1%) 's should continue to drive double-digit earnings growth, making even a fair valuation a compelling entry point.
In 2024, a lot has happened for me financially. I started investing around the middle of 2021. As I come from a family in which investing in the stock market was rather frowned upon (my parents invested in car manufacturers in 2000, which then slipped in 2001 just like everything else and they realized the losses), I only dared to start with small amounts bit by bit on an ETF basis in 2021. Financial flow classic 70% MSCI World ETF and 30% MSCI EM. The good thing about this was above all building up the automatism of investing money steadily and not waiting until the end of the month.
However, in 2024 I started to look more closely at the topic of finance, sometimes watching Berkshire conferences with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger and realized that I was interested in individual stocks and would like to own Apple (shares) myself, for example. In February 24' I then looked at my EM position and saw that the position had been more or less at 0 since '21. So I sold just under €1000 and put it into Apple. And no, I didn't calculate the intrinsic value of the share first and didn't know at the time that Apple would be launching devices with AI at the end of 2024. I myself work in the field of software engineering/data science and if someone has the choice, you actually always take the Macbook over Windows computers. But that's another topic for debate :)
The Apple shares then performed really well even after the purchase and I was fascinated by the fact that I generated more unrealized profits with a single share or 6 Apple shares within 2 months than with the EM in 4 years. (I'll come back to EM later)
From March onwards, I suspended my savings plan in the ETFs and simply put the money in my Scalable clearing account instead. I didn't know what exactly I wanted to buy now, so pretty much from mid-24' I started to dive more into investing and how to analyze stocks. I had already studied discounted cash flow analysis in my bachelor's degree, back then in the subject of finance with a 3.0 :D. So I built an Excel spreadsheet and started using DCF models to calculate the intrinsic value of shares.
But what exactly should my strategy be when buying shares?
I mean, I already liked getting a dividend from Apple, so did I want to pursue some kind of dividend growth strategy? Should I go for "fast growers" as Peter Lynch would say? But should I then also add so-called "stalwarts" (dividend stocks) and "asset plays" (stocks with very expensive inventories, for example, or investments and cash whose book value is well below their actual value) to my portfolio, as he advises?
"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for ten years" - W. Buffett
Long-term focus
My investment horizon is over 10 years, so it is important to me to have some kind of predictability of income from the companies I want to buy. It was also important for me to be patient when buying from the outset and to allow some time to pass in order to check whether an investment thesis holds up over quarters.
Quality
I focus exclusively on companies with a leading position in their respective industry, either number 1 or number 2 in the respective sector with a large market share. The important thing here is that growth should be primarily organic. This means that the company should either simply build good, irreplaceable products that customers love and therefore remain loyal to, or simply be so influential that they can simply raise their prices without really losing customers ("pricing power" like Apple)
Concentration
Especially for someone coming from the financial flow school where the more diversified the investment, the better, it was hard to get used to this element. The investor Dev Kantesaria, who has successfully managed Valley Forge Capital for years and whose philosophy is also based on mine, once described this very aptly in an interview: "Why should I invest in my 25th best investment idea?". Accordingly, my goal is only to invest in a maximum of 15 individual stocks - I can't even manage to regularly check more in my free time and check whether the investment thesis still holds up.
Discipline
With the Emerging Markets ETF, I have held a position in my portfolio for several years purely out of conviction that this investment in emerging markets will work out in the long term. I also want to hold my stocks with the same conviction that they will perform well over the long term. In addition, I usually invest in companies when their intrinsic value suggests a margin of safety of at least 15-20%. For example, there was a slump in Alphabet shares in the summer with the unrest that Alphabet might be split up. The share was worth around €150 at the time. All of Alphabet's individual businesses have a combined intrinsic value of €250-300. Also related to this strategy element is that I don't really touch individual sectors that are associated with large research and development costs, for example, unless I really know my way around them. So I avoid biotech companies because I hardly know anything about them, but I invest in tech companies because I work in IT myself.
So I look for companies that are quasi monopolies in their respective industries, with strong market shares and a large moat due to irreplaceable or hard-to-penetrate products and a solid margin with a focus on steady free cash flow growth.
So why do I actually have the Emerging Markets ETF?
I asked myself this question and then promptly took another look at just ETF to see which stocks are actually in it. The top 10 holdings accounted for almost 25%. Why is that important? Some people always complain that the Magnificent 7 have such a high share in the S&P500, also slightly more than 25%, but this is usually due to the fact that companies are often weighted by market capitalization. If you then take a closer look at the top 10, 5 of them are Chinese companies. In general, China accounts for just under 25% of the ETF share. Chinese equities are not bad per se, there are some very good companies. However, the constant intervention of the government is a problem, laws can be changed overnight and a company becomes obsolete, or Mr. Ma, the CEO of Alibaba, simply disappears for a few months after having expressed mild criticism of government officials in a speech. These characteristics go against my strategy as formulated above, which is why the EM ETF was thrown out completely in July.
I then slowly tried to build up my individual positions towards the end of July, primarily $CRM (+1,45%) , $ASML (-0,08%) , $MSFT (+1,32%) , $BKNG (+0,21%) , $GOOG (-1,83%) , $V (-0,06%) and $AMZN (+0,25%) . On August 5 there was a small correction, I think it was due to the "Japanese carry trade". That week I made another big purchase, very happy not to have invested all my freed-up EM capital at once. As a result, I was able to invest heavily in Amazon and Alphabet and make them my largest single positions.
Overall, I am very happy with the decision. I am aware that the last stock market year was a very good one overall and that you shouldn't be deceived by appearances. Things will probably not always go so well. My third-largest single position, in which I was in the red at just under €1500 in the meantime $ASML (-0,08%) is good proof of this. Nevertheless, this company is a virtual monopoly in the chip manufacturing sector and will most likely remain so for the next 10 years. Therefore, I can only shrug my shoulders and look at the reports from the Magnificent 7, which are constantly expanding their data centers and in some cases were unable to meet demand in the last quarters of 2024! But there are already some good articles on this here on getquin. A new addition at the end of '24 is $UBER (-0,25%) I will also be steadily expanding my position there, and the watchlist also includes $MELI (+1,25%) , $MCO (+0,1%) , $SPGI (-0,15%) , $CAKE (-0,47%) and $AMD (+2,72%) for 2025.
To summarize:
Portfolio performance: 31% vs. S&P500 25%
Invested capital: approx. 22,000 euros
Portfolio value growth: approx. 42,000 euros
Goals for 2025:
Moody's $MCO (+0,1%) has upgraded the outlook for Nissan $7201 (+2,04%) to negative, although the credit rating remains unchanged. This is due to uncertainties about the company's financial recovery and the challenges in its main business areas. Moody's points to weak sales and structural problems that could jeopardize Nissan's medium-term stability.
Further details can be found in the article on TradingView.
The news is based on what I personally consider to be reputable sources. No investment advice. Follow me for more updates!
S&P Global Q3 2024 $SPGI (-0,15%)
Financial performance:
S&P Global delivered a robust financial performance in Q3 2024 with revenue up 16% to USD 3,575 million. This growth was mainly driven by strong performances in the Ratings and Indices segments. Adjusted operating profit increased by 20% to USD 1,744 million, indicating improved operational efficiency.
Balance sheet analysis:
The balance sheet shows a stable financial position, with total assets of USD 60,368 million as of September 30, 2024. The company recorded an increase in cash and cash equivalents to USD 1,697 million, compared to USD 1,291 million at the end of 2023, indicating improved liquidity. However, there was a slight increase in current liabilities, which could indicate rising financial obligations.
Income statement:
The income statement shows a significant increase in net income, resulting in a 33% increase in GAAP diluted EPS to $3.11. In addition, adjusted diluted EPS increased 21% to $3.89 due to higher adjusted net income.
Cash flow analysis:
S&P Global's cash flow from operating activities was strong, totaling $1,445 million in the third quarter. Free cash flow improved to USD 1,330 million, indicating efficient cash management. Nevertheless, spending on financing activities increased, indicating higher outflows related to financing.
Key figures and profitability:
The company's operating profit margin improved by 530 basis points to 40.1%, while the adjusted operating profit margin increased by 180 basis points to 48.8%. These improvements underline the increased profitability and operational efficiency.
Segment analysis:
Competitive Analysis:
S&P Global continues to leverage its strong market position in credit ratings and indices. The company's strategic focus on sustainability, energy transition and generative AI positions it favorably against competitors in the evolving market environment.
Forecasts and management commentary:
The company has updated its forecast for 2024 and expects sales growth of between 11.5% and 12.5%, which represents a significant increase on the previous range of 8.0% to 10.0%. In addition, the operating profit margin is expected to expand to between 600 and 650 basis points.
Risks and opportunities:
The main risks include the potential impact of rising short-term debt and falling unrealized income, which could affect future revenue recognition. On the other hand, strategic investments in sustainability and AI offer significant opportunities for growth.
Summary and strategic implications:
S&P Global's strong financial performance and strategic initiatives indicate a stable financial position and significant growth potential. The company's focus on sustainability and AI as well as its robust revenue growth position it favorably for sustained success. Nevertheless, careful management of financial commitments and revenue recognition will be critical to maintain this growth trajectory. If you get the price right, then definitely a buy candidate alongside $MCO (+0,1%) .
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