My worst investments in the last 2 years are.

• $INDO (+0,4%) ETFs on Indonesia are at -20% (ETFs).
• $EDAC Acrobatic Construction -40% and $MRNA (+0,63%) Modern -40% (ACTION)

$BNTX (-14,01%) has taken quite a beating in pre-market trading today. R.F. Kennedy and Peter Marks (FDA) have parted ways following differences of opinion on the subject of vaccinations. The vaccine values such as $BNTX (-14,01%) and $MRNA (+0,63%) have suffered. For me, this is a good opportunity to add to my BionTech position right after the US IPO - I am speculating on a breakthrough in the oncology pipeline in 2026. Biontech is one of my long term swings.

In addition to Biontech, I also added to my $RDC (-0,7%) Shopapotheke position again today.

Moderna in crisis

The Moderna share comes under pressure on Thursday. Moderna $MRNA (+0,63%)-shares fell 4.14 percent at one point after reports surfaced that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is re-evaluating the $590 million contract to develop an avian flu vaccine. The contract, awarded to Moderna in the final days of the Biden administration, was intended to accelerate mRNA-based vaccines in the event of an avian flu pandemic. Investors are concerned about whether the contract is in jeopardy and what impact this could have on Moderna's future.

Snowflake surprises with strong figures

The AI company Snowflake $SNOW (-0,09%) had a successful fourth quarter thanks to strong demand for AI. The figures exceeded analysts' expectations at all levels. Turnover amounted to 986.8 million US dollars, while analysts had only expected 956.9 million US dollars. The result was also surprising: earnings amounted to 30 cents per share, which was better than the 18 cents that had been expected. CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy emphasized that Snowflake is considered the most important data and AI company in the world and sees enormous growth potential. The share price reacted with a jump of 7.35 percent to 178.40 US dollars.

MTU Aero Engines: Insider buys shares

The MTU Aero Engines $MTX (+5,29%)-share, there is news from the insider sector. On February 25, 2025, CEO Maurer, Dr. Silke, acquired 42 shares at EUR 306.90 each. On BaFin's publication date, the share price rose by 1 percent to EUR 321.60. A total of 923 MTU shares changed hands in FSE trading. Dr. Maurer had already increased his position by 95 shares at EUR 305.70 on the same day. MTU Aero Engines has a market capitalization of EUR 17.16 billion, which underlines the executive's interest in his own share.

Sources:

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/risiko-fuer-anleger-moderna-aktie-stuerzt-ab-millionenvertrag-um-vogelgrippe-impfstoff-in-gefahr-14277323

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/erwartungen-uebertroffen-snowflake-aktie-mit-kurssprung-snowflake-meldet-ueberraschend-starke-quartalszahlen-14275993

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/mtu-aero-engines-aktie-fuehrungskraft-investiert-in-eigene-anteile-14279859

Last year was a complete success for many investors - but not for everyone. While the S&P 500 rose by around 25 %, there were also shares that took a nosedive. 🤔

The biggest losers included companies such as Celanese Corp. $CE (+0,55%), which fell by 19.25 %, and Estée Lauder ($EL (+1,36%)which lost 1.45 %. Intel $INTC (-0,92%) and Moderna $MRNA (+0,63%) were also under pressure.

But what does that mean? Are yesterday's flops the potential stars of tomorrow? Some analysts see recovery potential, while others point to the ongoing challenges.

What do you think? Is it worth buying into these supposed bargains now, or is staying away the better strategy? Let's discuss it! 📈💬

In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.

Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

__________

In this post:

• Influence on inflation
• New tariffs in force
• Reaction of the countries
• Consequences for the global economy
• Winners & losers
• Investment opportunities

__________

The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].

The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.

The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.

I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.

After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.

A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:

💰 Influence on inflation

On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:

The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.

Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.

🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned

As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]

But this is just the beginning:

From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:

• computer chips
• pharmaceuticals
• Steel, aluminum and copper
• Oil and gas imports (but only from February 18 with reduced 10% tariffs so as not to burden US petrol prices immediately).

🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation

Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.

Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:

"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"

The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:

"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"

🔄 Canada's reaction:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".

The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:

• The new tariffs could increase the cost of living of an average US household by 800 dollars per year.
• The oil and gas tariffs could increase the price of petrol in the USA by up to 20 cents per liter.

But Trump remains firm:

"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."

🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy

(a) Rising prices in the USA

• Technology & electronicsHigher chip prices are hitting companies such as Apple $AAPL (+0,28%) , Dell $DELL and HP $HPQ (-0,63%) as many of their components come from China.

• Healthcare costs: Pharmaceutical companies such as CVS Health $CVS (-0,54%) and Walgreens Boots Alliance $WBA (+0,1%) are facing higher purchasing costs.

• Construction & InfrastructureHigher steel prices are weighing on companies such as Lennar $LEN (-1,12%) D.R. Horton $DHI (-0,37%) and Caterpillar $CAT (-0,28%) .

(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?

• China could impose tariffs on US products, which could affect e.g. Archer Daniels Midland $ADM (-0,82%) Boeing $BA (+0,86%) and Qualcomm $QCOM (+1,46%) would be affected.

• The EU could make US imports more expensive, which would affect Tesla $TSLA (+10,24%) , Ford $F (+0,11%) and General Motors $GM (+0,56%) could be harmed.

(c) Effects on the stock market

• Volatility is increasing as there is uncertainty about the consequences for various industries.

• Particularly affected: Technology and automotive stocks with global supply chains.

🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?

Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs

US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper

• Nucor $NUE (+1,02%) , U.S. Steel $X (+2,25%) and Freeport-McMoRan $FCX (-1,06%) could benefit as foreign competition becomes more expensive as a result of the tariffs.

Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies

• Pfizer $PFE (+1,2%) Moderna $MRNA (+0,63%) and Eli Lilly $LLY (+2,83%) could gain market share.

Energy companies with US production

• ExxonMobil $XOM (+0,12%) , Chevron$CVX (-0,13%) and Expand Energy $CHK (+0,28%) could benefit from rising prices for US oil and gas.

Chip manufacturers with US production

• Intel $INTC (-0,92%) and Texas Instruments$TXN (+1,12%) have US factories and could gain market share.

😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs

Chip manufacturers with global supply chains

• Apple $AAPL (+0,28%) NVIDIA $NVDA (+4,72%) , AMD $AMD (+2,72%) are dependent on Asian imports and could see higher production costs.

Car manufacturers with global suppliers

• Tesla $TSLA (+10,24%) , Ford $F (+0,11%) , General Motors $GM (+0,56%) are under pressure because components from Mexico and Canada could become more expensive.

Companies with strong export business

• Boeing $BA (+0,86%) and Caterpillar $CAT (-0,28%) suffer from possible retaliatory tariffs.

US retailers with a high import share

• Walmart $WMT (-0,63%) , Target $TGT (+1,34%) and Nike $NKE (-0,18%) could have to pass on rising prices to customers.

🧠 Possible investment strategies

Favor defensive sectors:

• Utilities (e.g. NextEra Energy $NEE (+0,17%) Duke Energy $DUK (+0,4%) ) and healthcare companies (e.g. UnitedHealth $UNH (-1,3%) , Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-0,01%) ) remain more stable.

Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":

• Intel $INTC (-0,92%) , Eli Lilly $LLY (+2,83%) , Nucor $NUE (+1,02%) could benefit in the long term.

Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?

With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.

❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?

Thanks for reading! 🤝

__________

Sources:

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-finance-chartbook-44-charts-that-tell-the-story-of-markets-and-the-economy-to-start-2025-105856766.html

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-charts-show-why-markets-are-skittish-about-trumps-tariff-policy-144318249.html

[3] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/usa-unter-trump/trumps-verhaengt-zoelle-gegen-kanada-mexiko-und-china-110269990.html?

[4]

https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2025-01/64440108-trump-usa-werden-ab-mitte-februar-zoelle-auf-computerchips-stahl-sowie-oel-und-gasimporte-erheben-015.htm

[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html

The Mainz-based company Biontech $BNTX (-14,01%) is currently testing several active substances in phase 2 trials - but none have yet reached the lengthy phase 3 required for approval.

US competitor Moderna $MRNA (+0,63%) claims to have an active substance - mRNA-4157 - in two phase 3 trials: as an add-on therapy against melanoma and against a certain form of lung cancer, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

The Moderna preparation mRNA-4157 (V940) could in turn be approved in the foreseeable future for the treatment of melanoma.

The active ingredient is currently being tested in two phase 3 trials - against a form of lung cancer and against high-risk melanoma. In fact, the US Food and Drug Administration nach Angaben von Moderna und Merck has announced an accelerated approval process for the drug in combination with the immune checkpoint inhibitor pembrolizumab for melanoma therapy.

https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Krebs-koennte-mit-mRNA-Praeparaten-besiegt-werden-article25509772.html

How should I start? My portfolio has increased by almost 3.75 times, even though I've been struggling with a few problems since June and can hardly save any more.

My BAföG has not yet been approved, which is why I have to be financially cautious and hope that I can make ends meet with my remaining funds.

The year has been exciting - I can't guarantee you whether the figures here are accurate, and to be honest I don't think they are, because so far they've almost always been wrong. Nevertheless, it gives you a good insight into my portfolio.

And my goals for 2025? Honestly, I have no idea! I'll have to see how my studies and my life as a whole are going before I can set any concrete goals, but I'll have some fun: Here are my top and flop 5 that I still hold.

$SOFI (+5,07%)
$BTC (+0,43%)
$FWONA
$D05 (-0,09%)
$FTNT (+1,34%)

$AIXA (+0,61%)
$EVT (+0,97%)
$AFX (+0,51%)
$MRNA (+0,63%)
$CELH

I wish you all a happy new year!

year!