Postos
67Natan YTD: +9.1%
S&P500 YTD: -4.6%
My positions: $PDD (-8,03%)
$BABA (-9,21%)
$TMDX (-3,86%)
$META (-4,44%)
$HOOD (-9,32%)
$PYPL (-4,25%)
$MRNA (-1,33%)
$BTO (-8,25%)
$EW (-4,44%)
$AMD (-8,01%)
ALLOCATION BY COUNTRY:
🇺🇸 US: 50%
🇨🇳 China: 42%
🇨🇦 Canada: 6%
🇨🇭 Switzerland: 2%
What do you think about my portfolio?
$BNTX (-3,55%) has taken quite a beating in pre-market trading today. R.F. Kennedy and Peter Marks (FDA) have parted ways following differences of opinion on the subject of vaccinations. The vaccine values such as $BNTX (-3,55%) and $MRNA (-1,33%) have suffered. For me, this is a good opportunity to add to my BionTech position right after the US IPO - I am speculating on a breakthrough in the oncology pipeline in 2026. Biontech is one of my long term swings.
In addition to Biontech, I also added to my $RDC (-2,11%) Shopapotheke position again today.
Moderna in crisis
The Moderna share comes under pressure on Thursday. Moderna $MRNA (-1,33%)-shares fell 4.14 percent at one point after reports surfaced that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is re-evaluating the $590 million contract to develop an avian flu vaccine. The contract, awarded to Moderna in the final days of the Biden administration, was intended to accelerate mRNA-based vaccines in the event of an avian flu pandemic. Investors are concerned about whether the contract is in jeopardy and what impact this could have on Moderna's future.
Snowflake surprises with strong figures
The AI company Snowflake $SNOW (-6,11%) had a successful fourth quarter thanks to strong demand for AI. The figures exceeded analysts' expectations at all levels. Turnover amounted to 986.8 million US dollars, while analysts had only expected 956.9 million US dollars. The result was also surprising: earnings amounted to 30 cents per share, which was better than the 18 cents that had been expected. CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy emphasized that Snowflake is considered the most important data and AI company in the world and sees enormous growth potential. The share price reacted with a jump of 7.35 percent to 178.40 US dollars.
MTU Aero Engines: Insider buys shares
The MTU Aero Engines $MTX (-9,58%)-share, there is news from the insider sector. On February 25, 2025, CEO Maurer, Dr. Silke, acquired 42 shares at EUR 306.90 each. On BaFin's publication date, the share price rose by 1 percent to EUR 321.60. A total of 923 MTU shares changed hands in FSE trading. Dr. Maurer had already increased his position by 95 shares at EUR 305.70 on the same day. MTU Aero Engines has a market capitalization of EUR 17.16 billion, which underlines the executive's interest in his own share.
Sources:
Last year was a complete success for many investors - but not for everyone. While the S&P 500 rose by around 25 %, there were also shares that took a nosedive. 🤔
The biggest losers included companies such as Celanese Corp. $CE (-12,95%), which fell by 19.25 %, and Estée Lauder ($EL (-8,7%)which lost 1.45 %. Intel $INTC (-10,9%) and Moderna $MRNA (-1,33%) were also under pressure.
But what does that mean? Are yesterday's flops the potential stars of tomorrow? Some analysts see recovery potential, while others point to the ongoing challenges.
What do you think? Is it worth buying into these supposed bargains now, or is staying away the better strategy? Let's discuss it! 📈💬
🔹 EPS: -$2.91 (Est. -$2.68) 🔴
🔹 Revenue: $966M (Est. $942.8M) 🟢
🔹 R&D Expenses: $1.12B (Est. $1.16B) 🟢
🔹 Product Sales: $923M (vs. $2.8B YoY)
FY25 Guidance :
🔹 Revenue: $1.5B–$2.5B (Est. $2.43B) 🔴
🔹 R&D Expenses: ~$4.1B
🔹 SG&A Expenses: ~$1.1B
🔹 Cash Position (Year-End): ~$6B
Key Business Updates:
COVID-19 Vaccine (Spikevax®):
🔹 Q4 Sales: $923M (U.S.: $244M; International: $679M)
🔹 Full-Year Sales: $3.1B
🔹 Regulatory filing for next-gen COVID-19 vaccine (mRNA-1283); FDA decision expected by May 31, 2025.
RSV Vaccine (mRESVIA®):
🔹 Q4 Sales: $15M; Full-Year Sales: $25M.
🔹 Approved in multiple regions, including the U.S., EU, and Canada.
Flu/COVID Combination Vaccine:
🔹 Phase 3 immunogenicity data shared; regulatory filing submitted.
Pipeline Progress:
🔹 Submitted three Biologics License Applications (BLA) in Q4, including RSV and COVID combination vaccines.
🔹 Anticipates up to 10 product approvals by 2027.
Management Commentary:
Stéphane Bancel, CEO:
🔹 "We exceeded our cost reduction goals in 2024 and advanced key late-stage pipeline programs. With a strong focus on operational efficiency, we expect significant product approvals starting this year, driving long-term growth."
Additional Notes:
🔹 Cost Efficiency: Achieved a 27% reduction in operating expenses compared to 2023.
🔹 Strategic Focus: Transitioning to seasonal commercial markets for respiratory vaccines while expanding R&D in oncology and rare diseases.
In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.
Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.
__________
In this post:
__________
The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].
The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.
The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.
I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.
After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.
A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:
💰 Influence on inflation
On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:
The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.
Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.
🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned
As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:
According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]
But this is just the beginning:
From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:
🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation
Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.
Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:
"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"
The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:
"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"
🔄 Canada's reaction:
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".
The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:
However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.
Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:
But Trump remains firm:
"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."
🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy
(a) Rising prices in the USA
(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?
(c) Effects on the stock market
🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?
Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs
US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper
Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies
Energy companies with US production
Chip manufacturers with US production
😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs
Chip manufacturers with global supply chains
Car manufacturers with global suppliers
Companies with strong export business
US retailers with a high import share
🧠 Possible investment strategies
Favor defensive sectors:
Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":
Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?
With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.
❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?
Thanks for reading! 🤝
__________
Sources:
[4]
[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html
The Mainz-based company Biontech $BNTX (-3,55%) is currently testing several active substances in phase 2 trials - but none have yet reached the lengthy phase 3 required for approval.
US competitor Moderna $MRNA (-1,33%) claims to have an active substance - mRNA-4157 - in two phase 3 trials: as an add-on therapy against melanoma and against a certain form of lung cancer, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
The Moderna preparation mRNA-4157 (V940) could in turn be approved in the foreseeable future for the treatment of melanoma.
The active ingredient is currently being tested in two phase 3 trials - against a form of lung cancer and against high-risk melanoma. In fact, the US Food and Drug Administration nach Angaben von Moderna und Merck has announced an accelerated approval process for the drug in combination with the immune checkpoint inhibitor pembrolizumab for melanoma therapy.
https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Krebs-koennte-mit-mRNA-Praeparaten-besiegt-werden-article25509772.html
Moderna $MRNA (-1,33%) cuts 2025 revenue forecast to $1.5B–$2.5B (from $2.5B–$3.5B) due to slower demand for COVID and RSV vaccines. 2024 sales hit $3.0B–$3.1B.
Cash costs to drop by $1B in 2025, with another $500M cut planned for 2026. CEO Bancel highlights focus on driving growth, 10 product approvals in 3 years, and further cost reductions. Full Q4 results coming Feb 14, 2025.
__
Abercrombie & Fitch $ANF (+5,35%) raises its Q4 net sales forecast to +7%–8%, up from +5%–7%, citing strong holiday demand. Operating margin is expected around 16%. FY24 net sales now forecasted at +15% with a 15% operating margin. Record sales driven by strong comps across regions and brands. Full details at 2025 ICR Conference.
__
$LULU (+4,59%) $LULu RAISES GUIDANCE: Lululemon updates Q4 2024 outlook with revenue now expected at $3.56-3.58B (prior $3.48-3.51B) and EPS at $5.81-5.85 (prior $5.56-5.64). Gross margin forecast improved by 30 bps. Strong holiday demand cited.
How should I start? My portfolio has increased by almost 3.75 times, even though I've been struggling with a few problems since June and can hardly save any more.
My BAföG has not yet been approved, which is why I have to be financially cautious and hope that I can make ends meet with my remaining funds.
The year has been exciting - I can't guarantee you whether the figures here are accurate, and to be honest I don't think they are, because so far they've almost always been wrong. Nevertheless, it gives you a good insight into my portfolio.
And my goals for 2025? Honestly, I have no idea! I'll have to see how my studies and my life as a whole are going before I can set any concrete goals, but I'll have some fun: Here are my top and flop 5 that I still hold.
$SOFI (-9,67%)
$BTC (+0,13%)
$FWONA
$D05 (-5,73%)
$FTNT (-4,65%)
$AIXA (-7,39%)
$EVT (-7,07%)
$AFX (-6,58%)
$MRNA (-1,33%)
$CELH
I wish you all a happy new year!
year!
What a turbulent week on the stock market, I had to buy more 😅 How are things looking for you?
$KLAC (-6,34%)
$ADBE (-4,21%)
$SIKA (-3,95%)
$HOLN (-6%)
$MBG (-5,9%)
$CVX (-8,09%)
$MRNA (-1,33%)
