The United States is facing a heavy budgetary burden. A deficit of 2 trillion US dollars, equivalent to 7% of GDP, is the result of spending of 7 trillion dollars compared to revenues of only 5 trillion dollars. This situation carries the risk of triggering a recession that could spread to the entire economy. Initial data already points to an increase in Arbeitslosenanträge im District of Columbia which is seen as an early indicator of an economic slowdown.

There are currently 3 scenarios for reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP:

• Nominal economic growth of 10% per year: However, this would involve a highly inflationary development and would hardly be politically viable, as the population is already suffering from current price increases.
• Increase in government revenue by 1 trillion dollars: As tax cuts have been the focus in the past (especially under Trump), tariffs, for example, which currently stand at 2-3%, would have to be raised to around 30%, but this could further increase inflationary pressure and exacerbate trade conflicts.
• Spending cuts of 1 trillion dollars: Given that $4 trillion for social benefits (pensions & healthcare) is considered politically untouchable and the $1 trillion interest burden could only be reduced by falling yields, which seems unrealistic if the FED pauses interest rates, the only option left would be to cut the defense budget, by $1 trillion, as well as budgets in areas such as energy, education &transportation.

These austerity measures have contributed to the rise of more populist movements (DOGE & Elon Musk) calling for a reduction in the size of government. Signaling the end of the era of excessive US fiscal commitment. At the same time, market signals, such as the outperformance defensiver Sektoren (consumer goods up 8% last month) and the 30% decline in US homebuilder equities since October, point to growing concerns about economic growth.

2. the Riyadh agreement as a potential turning point

The international geopolitical landscape is increasingly dominated by energy realism. The Trump-Administration faces a dilemma. Lower oil prices would be necessary to combat inflation, but an increase of US-Ölproduktion by 3 million barrels per day - to a total of 16 million - is unrealistic, as shale oil production has only increased by around 1 million barrels in the last three years.

A possible solution could be an agreement in Riyadh with OPEC+:

• OPEC+, in Vienna, could reverse the currently implemented production cuts of 5-6 million barrels per day in return for the lifting of sanctions against Russia and military security guarantees for the Gulf states.
• Such an agreement would accelerate the return to the classic Petrodollar System in which the proceeds from oil exports are reinvested in bonds.

The implementation of this scenario would have far-reaching consequences: Cheaper energy prices could dampen inflation, stabilize global bond markets and strengthen international equities, especially in Europe and EM. At the same time, Europe could be forced to overcome its dependencies on China (in the export sector), the US (in the security sector) and Russia (in energy supply).

3 Europe, China and the cyclical economic recovery

While the US is struggling with structural weaknesses, other regions offer attractive investment opportunities:

• Europe: After the German elections, populist parties, currently representing 29.57% of the vote, may not achieve the necessary one-third majority to create a fiscal stimulus measure, which is also quite speculative. Such a stimulus would strengthen the DAX and the Euro Stoxx50, especially in combination with possibly falling oil prices and extensive reconstruction plans in Ukraine.
• China: "Rising" real estate prices (in January, 24 out of 70 cities recorded price increases or stability in prices) and a possible consumption upswing (with retail sales rising more than 6% year-on-year) could attract international investors. For 2025, the Chinese government is planning targeted measures to promote consumption, including trade subsidies, increased social benefits and incentives for newborns. An acceleration in global purchasing managers' indices (PMI) would also boost demand for Chinese industrial products.
• Japan and South Korea: Both countries are benefiting cyclically from a recovery in the global manufacturing industry, particularly in the semiconductor sector. This includes blue-collar chips such as $ADI (-1,19%) , $MCHP (-2,75%) & $TXN (-1,56%) .

4. technology sector and limited liquidity reserves

The position of the Magnificent 7 is increasingly losing strength, partly due to the rise of Chinese AI providers such as DeepSeek. In addition, the weakness of US homebuilder stocks signals declining consumer power, with Hypothekenanträgen and have recovered again.

Another warning signal is the low liquidity reserve: the share of Barmitteln in Fondsportfolios is only 3.5%, the lowest level since 2010, which makes the markets more susceptible to corrections. Since the "sell signal" in December, the Magnificent 7 has lost 5%, while the MSCI ACWI has gained 2% - a clear indication of a Rotation in internationale Märkte.

5. investment recommendations

• A stronger weighting of long-term bonds, such as 30-year US government bonds, seems sensible, as a flattening of the yield curve & international demand (due to petrodollar recycling) could lead to falling yields.
• Buy the dip offers opportunities to enter export-oriented companies and cyclical sectors, especially in the US & China
• A focus on defensive sectors such as consumer and healthcare as well as blue-collar semiconductors is recommended, as these could benefit from a recovery in the purchasing managers' indices.
• Gold can be recommended as a hedge against geopolitical risks, while a cautious positioning in oil is advisable, as the upcoming OPEC+ negotiations could lead to increased volatility.

Why I am currently bearish on the market, a report.

1. macroeconomic environment

US exceptionalism: dominance and risks

• US market at all-time highs:
• S&P 500 and other indices are at a 75 year high compared to the rest of the world. This is based on strong macroeconomic fundamentals, the attractiveness of the US market and a high risk appetite among investors.
• Problematic strengthSuch a level could indicate overvaluation. Any weakness in the US growth data could trigger an abrupt correction.

• Record high US dollar:
• The US dollar is at a 55 year high in the real effective exchange rate (REER). (The REER measures the competitiveness of a currency against the currencies of its major trading partners, taking into account inflation and trade volume) This increases the pressure on emerging markets and burdens the competitiveness of US exporters.
• John Connally's paradox ("The dollar is our currency, but your problem"): While a strong dollar is a sign of global confidence in the short term, it creates tensions, especially for countries with high dollar debts. (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, India, etc.)

Interest rates and inflation

• Rising interest rates and risks in the credit market:
• Should yields on 3Y US government bonds rise to 5 % (and the 2-year to 4.5 %), financing conditions could deteriorate sharply. This would particularly affect credit-dependent sectors such as small capsemerging markets and corporate bonds.
• Financials (KBE)Banks may initially benefit from higher interest rates, but could collapse if financing conditions deteriorate. financing conditions become excessively restrictive. KBE stands for Credit-Bank ExposuresThis refers to the loans and financing that banks grant to companies or other institutions.

• US financial conditions are tightening:
• With expectations of interest rate cuts by the FED canceled and long-term yields rising (even without political measures), the first "cracks" in liquidity are appearing:
• Gold: Outflows of -1.6 bn $.
• EM Equities: Strong sell-off.
• Risk parity strategies: Vulnerable to volatility

Trump 2.0 and his radical policies

• The return of a "Trump-like" approach could move markets sharply:
• Positive in the short term: Tax cuts, infrastructure programs and protectionist measures could boost growth and investment in the US in the short term.
• Negative in the long termTrade wars, higher tariffs and global decoupling could weigh on growth worldwide.
• You can find out more on my account

2. market movements and financing conditions

US equity markets

• Massive capital inflowsUS equities are seeing the largest inflows since March 2024 (+$55.8bn), with records in large caps (+$44.1bn) and a focus on small caps (+$6.7bn).

• Sector-specific trends:
• Materials (+$5.6bn)Investors expect infrastructure programs and investments in the real economy.
• Financials (+$2.6 billion)Banks benefit from higher interest rates, but could suffer from rising defaults or recession risks.

Gold and commodities

• GoldOutflows of -1.6 bn $ show a clear move away from "safe havens". This is typical for a phase of risk appetite.

• Commodities and semiconductors:
• Commodity producers benefit from short-term demand due to inventory build-up.
• Semiconductors (SOX back to 200-day line): In particular "blue collar" semiconductors ($STM (-2,28%) , $ON (-2,29%) , $MCHP (-2,75%) ) in particular are suffering from weak global PMIs, which shows their dependence on EM production.

3. global trends and emerging markets

Capital outflows and global disparities

• EM markets: Largest outflows since 2015 (-$7.5bn in one week).
• China under pressure:
• Record outflows (-$21.1bn over 5 weeks) point to a confidence deficit.
• Macroeconomic challengesWeak growth, real estate crisis, capital controls.
• Geopolitical tensionsTrade barriers and US sanctions act as an additional burden.

Risk of a global recession

• EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) (-8 %) and India (-10 %) under pressure:
• Weaker economic data and capital outflows signal growing global fears of recession.

• Emerging markets in crisis:
• Weaker currencies and rising dollar costs are making it difficult for countries such as Brazil, Argentina and Turkey to refinance their debt.

4. capital flows and investment strategies

Fund Flow Highlights:

• Cryptoinflows of $6 billion reflect the willingness to invest in alternative assets.
• Bank Loansinflows of $2.1bn show an increase in riskier credit strategies.
• EM: Outflows from equities (-$7.5bn) and bonds show a clear reduction in risk.

Hennington Research Approach:

• US positioning:
• Favored large caps and materials short term as long as the US economy is supported.
• Reconsider exposure to small caps as they are vulnerable to interest rate changes.
• Avoid emerging markets:
• Capital outflows and dollar weakness continue to weigh on these markets.
• Monitor yield risks:
• A breach of 5% in 30-year Treasuries could mark a turning point. Watch bond markets at all times.

Microchip Technology$MCHP (-2,75%) has announced that CEO Ganesh Moorthy will retire at the end of November. His successor will be Steve Sanghithe current Chairman of the Board and former CEO of the company. Moorthy has worked at Microchip for more than two decades and has been CEO since March 2021. Sanghi, who already has a long history of leadership at Microchip, will return to the role to ensure the continuity and strategic direction of the company.

This leadership change comes at a time when Microchip is expanding its market position in semiconductor technologies and addressing the growing demand for smart and connected solutions.

Source:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4304328-microchip-says-ceo-moorthy-will-retire-will-be-replaced-by-sanghi

The news is based on what I personally consider to be reputable sources. However, I do not guarantee their accuracy. No advice.

I came up with a crazy idea and I wanted to share my work with you. I decided to organize my watchlist according to different criteria. The best stock gets 10 points and the worst gets 1 point. It is important to mention that this is a snapshot and can change at any time.

The criteria were:

- Market value (the higher the better as with the s&p)

- 52W low difference

- 52W high difference (at least 15 percent 52 w of high)

- Wallstreet rating ( strong buy )

- Price Target Difference

- Z score

- Sales forecast for the next 5 years

- EPS forecast for the next 5 years

- Forward PE ( the lower the better )

- ROIC ( the higher the better)

- Gross profit margin ( the higher the better)

- Net margin ( the higher the better)

-FCF margin ( the higher the better)

- Profit per employee ( the higher the better)

- PEG Ratio ( the lower the better)

- Beta (the lower the better)

- FCF Yield (the higher the better)

- Earning Yield ( the higher the better)

- Current ratio ( the higher the better)

-Short ratio ( the lower the better)

- Quick ratio ( the higher the better)

- Debit / EBITDA (the lower the better)

Place 1- $LRCX

2nd place $SNPS (+2,1%)

3rd place 3- $NOVO B (+0,13%)

Place 4- $MCHP (-2,75%)

5th place $REGN (+0,69%)

Place 6- $MCK (+0,95%)

ATTENTION: many industries cannot be compared directly, which is why, for example, gastronomy providers perform relatively poorly in such a test or the transportation sector such as ODFL. Here you can only compare shares from the same sector.

I would be very interested to know what you think of my approach? What can be done better here to achieve even more accurate results? Which criteria would you use and which not?

I am very curious about your feedback.

Thank you very much in advance 😘

Semiconductor shares since their 52-week highs

-61% Intel $INTC (-7,3%)

-54% Aixtron $AIXA (+1,18%)

-45% STMicroelectronics $STMPA (-2,82%)

-44% Micron Technology $MU (+5,61%)

-37% Globalfoundries $GFS (+1,19%)

-36% BE Semiconductor $OXVE

-33% Lam Research $LRCX

-29% AMD $AMD (+6,32%)

-29% Qualcomm $QCOM (-0,49%)

-28% ON Semiconductor $ON (-2,29%)

-27% ASML $ASML (-0,02%)

-26% Applied Materials $AMAT (+1,63%)

-26% Elmos Semiconductor $ELG (+2,7%)

-24% Microchip Techn. $MCHP (-2,75%)

-23% ARM $ARM (+1,87%)

-23% Synopsys $SNPS (+2,1%)

-23% Infineon $IFX (-0,02%)

-22% NXP Semiconductors $NXPI (-0,53%)

-20% Cadence Design $CDNS (+2,6%)

-17% Nvidia $NVDA (+2,31%)

-17% VanEck Semicon. ETF $IE00BMC38736 (+1,35%)

-17% Nordic Semi $NRS

-17% KLA Corporation $KLAC (+1,14%)

-13% Marvell Technology $MRVL (+4,17%)

-12% TSMC $2330

-11% Broadcom $AVGO (+1,78%)

-7% Texas Instruments $TXN (-1,56%)

-6% Monolithic Power Syst. $MPWR (+0,3%)

>> Which stocks are you invested in and how are they performing? Which of these stocks do you have on your watchlist? #semiconductor
#halbleiter

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 🗞️

𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗽-𝗔𝘂𝗳𝘀𝗰𝗵𝘄𝘂𝗻𝗴 / 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 / 𝗛𝗼𝗱𝗹 / 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝘂'𝘀 𝗖𝗕𝗗𝗖

𝗘𝘅-𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 📅

As of today, 3M ($MMM (-1,74%)), Cognizant ($COZ (-0,29%)), Cummins ($CUM (+0,82%)), Ford ($FMC1 (+6,36%)), GlaxoSmithKline ($GS7 (-3,24%)), Hershey Company ($HSY (-1,22%)), L3Harris Technologies ($HRS (-0,08%)), Microchip Technology ($MCP (-2,75%)), Otis Elevator Company ($4PG (-0,85%)), Raytheon Technologies ($5UR (+0,1%)), Sherwin-Williams ($SJ3 (+0,6%)) and Tyco Electronics ($TY1C) traded ex-dividend.

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀𝘇𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻 📈

Today, among others, Alibaba Group ($2RR (+1,45%)), Applied Materials ($AP2 (+1,63%)), Farfetch ($F1F), Full Truck Alliance Co ($YMM (+0,9%)), Globant ($GLOB (-0,43%)), Intuit ($ITU (+1,64%)), JD.com ($013A (+0%)), National Grid ($NNGF (+0,38%)), Nuance Communications ($SC2), Palo Alto Networks ($5AP (+1,3%)), Ross Stores ($RSO (+0,55%)), Williams-Sonoma ($WM1 (+0,49%)) and Workday ($W7D (+0,32%)) presented their figures.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🏛️

Nvidia ($NVD (+2,31%)) - NVIDIA shares rose sharply in the after-hours trading yesterday, driven by high demand for chips for data centers and computer games. In the past quarter, NVIDIA recorded a profit increase of 84 percent to 2.46 billion dollars. Among other things, NVIDIA's technology is used for artificial intelligence applications, graphics cards and chips for data centers. Despite concerns from competition authorities, NVIDIA is examining plans to purchase the British chip designer "Arm", whose technology is used in almost all smartphones. Based on Arm's chip architecture, Apple ($APC (+1,23%)), Samsung ($SSUN (+0%)) and Qualcomm ($QCI (-0,49%)) design their own processors for mobile devices.

thyssenkrupp ($TKA (+1,79%)) - The steel group thyssenkrupp beat expectations for the past 2020/21 financial year (ending September) with significant growth and benefited from the economic recovery. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes amounted to 769 million euros. However, shareholders will have to do without a dividend again this year. The Group expects mid-single-digit percentage growth and an approximate doubling of adjusted EBIT to between 1.5 and 1.8 billion euros and a net profit of at least 1 billion euros for the recently launched new financial year.

𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 💎

Bitcoin ($BTC-EUR (+0,35%)) - Latest data shows that Bitcoin holders who bought for $20,000 are refusing to sell BTC at all-time highs. Despite tempting triple gains, last November's buyers are determined to continue with the "hodl" strategy. BTC buyers hold their nerve and hold on to their coins despite various all-time highs.

Peru - The president of Peru's central bank (Julio Velarde) has announced that the country is working with India, Singapore and Hong Kong to develop a central bank digital currency (CBDC). According to the Atlantic Council, 87 countries (accounting for more than 90% of global GDP) are currently researching a CBDC, and seven have already launched their own. In comparison, only 35 countries have considered developing a CBDC in the 2020 mail.

Follow us for french content on @MarketNewsUpdateFR

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 🗞️

𝗛𝗮𝗯𝗲𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝗿 𝗻𝗼𝗰𝗵 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗽𝘀? / 𝗚𝗼𝗼𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝗸𝗮𝗻𝗻𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗻 / 𝗥𝗶𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗦𝗼𝗻𝗻𝗲

𝗘𝘅-𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 📅

As of today, Accenture ($CSA (+0,01%)), Lennar Corp. ($LNN (+0,48%)) and Microchip ($MCP (-2,75%)) are trading ex-dividend.

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀𝘇𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻 📈

Today, Blackrock ($BLQA), Delta Airlines ($OYC (+4,1%)) and JP Morgan Chase ($CMC (+1,87%)) present their figures.

𝗜𝗣𝗢𝘀 🔔

Fluence ($4SVE (+9,2%)) - Fluence Energy recently filed a draft of its IPO prospectus, making a big move to the Nasdaq technology exchange. Fluence is developing lithium-ion batteries to store energy. This is intended to balance the power grid, which is gradually being fed with fluctuating renewable energy.

At the beginning of the year, Fluence was valued at more than $1 billion. Siemens ($SIE (+1,06%)) holds 43% of the shares.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🏛️

Apple ($APC (+1,23%)) - Chip shortages are now bringing the smartphone giant to its knees. It should have produced 90 million units of the new iPhone 13 by Christmas. According to Bloomberg, this figure will be lower. The reason for this is supply bottlenecks of chips from Texas Instruments ($TII (-1,56%)) and Broadcom ($1YD (+1,78%)), which are responsible for the display power supply of the new smartphone, among other things.

In this context, the iPhone represents the group's flagship, which is responsible for 50% of sales.

TeamViewer ($TMV (-0,26%)) - A cooperation with Google ($GGQA) is intended to make the German company's augmented reality glasses marketable. TeamViewer's application allows retailers to directly reorder items by interacting with the products displayed in the glasses. In doing so, the glasses are connected to the retailer's order processing system to display current inventory levels. The cooperation with Google is seen as a beacon of hope for Teamviewer, as the company's share price has fallen by around 60% since the beginning of the year due to disappointing figures.

𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 💎

Crypto is going greener - Ripple and Nelnet ($NIJ (+0,44%)) have announced they are launching a renewable energy fund. This is expected to save about 1.5 million tons of carbon emissions in the U.S., which is roughly equivalent to the consumption of 583 million liters of gasoline. Ripple therefore invested $44 million in Nelnet's solar energy fund, but further investments are to follow.

Ken Weber, head of social impact, also announced that more projects will be set up to further reduce the crypto industry's carbon footprint.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 🗞️

𝗛𝗮𝗯𝗲𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝗿 𝗻𝗼𝗰𝗵 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗽𝘀 / 𝗚𝗼𝗼𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗳𝘁 𝗮𝘂𝘀 / 𝗥𝗶𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗦𝗼𝗻𝗻𝗲

𝗘𝘅-𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 📅

As of today, Accenture ($CSA (+0,01%)), Lennar Corp. ($LENB (+0%)) and Microhip ($MCP (-2,75%)) are trading ex-dividend.

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀𝘇𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻 📈

Today, Blackrock ($BLQA), Delta Airlines ($OYC (+4,1%)) and JP Morgan Chase ($CMC (+1,87%)) present their figures.

𝗜𝗣𝗢𝘀 🔔

𝗙𝗹𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 - Fluence Energy recently filed a draft of its IPO prospectus, making a big move to the Nasdaq technology exchange. Fluence is developing lithium-ion batteries to store energy. The idea is to balance the power grid, which is gradually being fed by fluctuating renewable energy.

At the beginning of the year, Fluence was valued at more than $1 billion. Siemens ($SIE (+1,06%)) holds 43% of the shares.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🏛️

𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲 ($APC (+1,23%)) - The chip shortage is now bringing the smartphone giant to its knees. It should have produced 90 million units of the new iPhone 13 by Christmas. This figure is expected to be lower, according to Bloomberg. The reason for this is supply bottlenecks of chips from Texas Instruments ($TII (-1,56%)) and Broadcom ($AVGOP), which are responsible for the display power supply of the new smartphone, among other things.

In this context, the iPhone represents the group's flagship, which is responsible for 50% of sales.

𝗧𝗲𝗮𝗺𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄𝗲𝗿 ($TMV (-0,26%)) - A cooperation with Google ($GGQA) is intended to make the German company's augmented reality glasses marketable. Teamviewer's application allows retailers to directly reorder items by interacting with the products displayed in the glasses. In doing so, the glasses are connected to the retailer's order processing system to display current inventory levels. The cooperation with Google is seen as a beacon of hope for Teamviewer, as the company's share price has fallen by about 60% since the beginning of the year due to disappointing figures.

𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 💎

𝗥𝗶𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲 - Ripple and Nelnet ($NIJ (+0,44%)) have announced plans to set up a renewable energy fund. This is expected to save about 1.5 million tons of carbon emissions in the U.S., which is roughly equivalent to the consumption of 583 million liters of gasoline. Ripple therefore invested $44 million in Nelnet's solar energy fund, but further investments are to follow.

Ken Weber, head of social impact, also announced that more projects will be set up to further reduce the crypto industry's carbon footprint.