$MEDP (+2,24%)

Sales: 660M vs 641M expected 🟢

Net Income: 111M vs 100M expected 🟢

Book To Bill: 1.2 vs 1.03 prior 🚀

Outlook FY 2025 (raised)

Sales: 2510M vs 2465M expected 🟢

Net income: 435M vs 413M expected 🟢

A turnaround seems to have been achieved here within 2 quarters.

Book-to-bill was previously at 0.9. Almost 800M in orders were booked this quarter, significantly more than half a year ago with high momentum

We need to talk about the healthcare sector today. After 2024 had already disappointed many companies in the sector due to the "corona effect" and was labeled a "transition year", I had actually called for a major recovery in 2025. What happened instead is of course clear: a complete bleed-out of the industry.

In fact, the situation in the healthcare sector is so bad that no returns at all have been achieved across the board in the last three years, and that is bad.

I had actually chosen the healthcare sector as a second pillar in my portfolio alongside my tech investments, as I have a great passion for the topic of healthcare and also like to spend a lot of time on it. Actually, I also had the impression that the healthcare sector is rather defensive as the demand for healthcare services is continuously increasing when there is an increasing number of sicker people in the world. I have therefore created a diversified portfolio of companies that have a predominance in the treatment of a specific disease: Heart defects, mucoviscidosis, diabetes - you can probably already guess where this is going.

At the moment I have several companies in my portfolio whose performance really resembles a horror movie: $ILM1 (+1,88%) , $AFX (-2,96%) , $UNH (+1,21%) , $NOVO B (+0,13%)

Plus some resurrected zombies like $TMO (+0,74%) , $ABBV (-0,1%) , $EW (-0,14%) , $MEDP (+2,24%) whose performance could be reactivated through life-sustaining measures.

Only $SYK (-1,03%) and $VRTX (+0,88%) are developing in line with expectations overall.

In summary, 40% pain, 40% okay and only 20% yes

However, the poor performance is not at all related to the selection of companies. Other giants such as $MRK (+0,33%) and even the most solid healthcare company in the world $JNJ (-0,96%) are not performing satisfactorily either. Some people here in the comments always act as if Novo Nordisk and UNH were the worst companies in the world and everything was foreseeable - but that's just not the case. In fact, they are only falling so sharply and getting so much media coverage because they have always been regarded as the absolute gems in contrast to solala companies like $PFE (+0,19%) it really wasn't an everyday occurrence for them to halve overnight.

Overall, the healthcare sector, which has been battered for years, is now also considered undervalued. So we can still hope for a recovery. Nevertheless, it is slowly becoming a huge problem for me if I put 1/4 of my capital into assets that are outperforming the savings book and not compensating for inflation. The opportunity costs in particular are astronomical, as I have been 80% right in the tech sector in recent years and 80% wrong in the healthcare sector. I spend more money with my left hand than I earn with my right.

The saying comes to mind: "The tide lifts all boats" which is actually supposed to protect against overconfidence. But isn't it also true that an ebb tide lowers all boats? Perhaps neither the great hit rate in the tech sector nor the subterranean hit chance in the health sector is dependent on my investment decisions, but simply a static anomaly.

What I also want to address specifically is that I find it incredibly annoying that investing in the healthcare sector is such a drama club. I sometimes wonder whether we're doing business here or filming a telenovela. I mean, the whole thing with $HIMS (+1,27%) is a complete kindergarten. Why is it that in the automotive industry, complete strangers manage to merge or form alliances just like that and in the healthcare industry they can't even manage to sell a few medications for 3 months without it degenerating into a mud fight and a war of the roses? My gosh.

But now it's up to you. I would be particularly interested to know how people who have been on the market for more than 10 years see it. Have health values always been such a rollercoaster ride or is the industry better than its reputation?

$MEDP (+2,24%)

Sales: 603M vs 539M expected

Net income: 90M vs 90M expected

EBITDA: 131M vs 117M expected

Book To Bill: 1.03 vs 0.9 prior

Outlook FY 2025

Sales: 2470M vs 2185M expected (the 2470 were not even expected for 2027)

Net Income: 416M vs 390M expected

Absolutely strong numbers. Unfortunately, I didn't dare to buy sooner because it didn't look good

As announced, here's a little update on January today, nothing long, don't want to bore you

Yield

Yield: 6.82% (FTSE All World: 4.23%)

TTWROR: 7.29%

Thus slightly outperformed, hopefully I can extend this lead further

transactions

Sales:

• Shimano $7309 (-1,07%)
• 
  Medpace $MEDP (+2,24%)
• 
  Apple $AAPL (+1,23%)
• 
  Domino's Pizza $DPZ (-1,68%)
• 
  McDonald's $MCD (-0,54%)

Purchases

• Norbit $NORBT (+1,29%) (subsequent purchase)
• Frosta $NLM (+0,21%) (initial purchase)
• RCS Mediagroup $RCS (+0,58%) (initial purchase)
• Uber Technologies $UBER (-0,67%) (initial purchase)
• Sanlorenzo $SL (+0,8%) (initial purchase)
• Charles River Labs $CRL (+3,1%) (subsequent purchase)
• Simply Better Brands $SBBC (-1,1%) (initial purchase)

Looks like a lot of back and forth for now, but with this my portfolio conversion continues and will soon be completed

During my first year of investing, I bought a lot of shares that I didn't really understand what they were doing. In the course of my restructuring, I would like to reduce my number of shares from almost 30 to 15 in the long term. However, I want to do this over a longer period of time, as these are not bad companies.

Shares that I want to sell

Apple $AAPL (+1,23%)
Medpace $MEDP (+2,24%)
ResMed $RMD (-2,32%)
Shimano $7309 (-1,07%)
LVMH $MC (-1,81%)
Genmab $GMAB (-0,02%)
Pernod Ricard $RI (-0,16%)
Pilbara Minerals $PLS (+9,77%)
Sixt $SIX2 (+1,8%)
McDonald's $MCD (-0,54%)
Domino's Pizza $DPZ (-1,68%)
Crowdstrike $CRWD (+0,86%)
Salesforce $CRM (-0,22%)
Nvidia $NVDA (+2,31%)

Just to clarify, I am not selling these companies because they are bad companies, but because they no longer fit into my investment strategy. I will only invest in companies that are not included in the classic world ETFs, but which I nevertheless understand well.

My question would be what you generally think of this and in which order you would sell the companies listed (as they are listed, this is my preferred order)

$MEDP (+2,24%) Reports Q3 2024

Sales: 533M vs 541M expected (Miss)

EBIT: 112M vs 101M expected (Beat)

Income: 96M vs 90M expected (Beat)

• New Business Awards 533M (Miss) leads to Book-To-Bill of 1.00 down from 1.2-1.3 Range YoY

Outlook for FY24:

Rev: 2.11B vs 2.14B expected (Miss)

EBITDA: 460M vs 450M expected (Beat)

Income: 381M vs 371M expected (Beat)

Expectations were apparently very high. The company is more profitable than expected with less growth. Book-To-Bill is approaching 1. A value below 1 signals a shrinking business, but the backlog is almost 3B, which makes MEDP booked out for a year. So there is still enough time to generate new growth

With a tea content of over 50%, I then have

$ELF (-1,58%) and. $MEDP (+2,24%)

sold.

That's called rebalancing 🙈, or maybe not.

Because now it's time to sort out the tech sector and find something new in healthcare.

$MEDP (+2,24%) Were earnings really that bad? Sales are supposed to be lower, but the bottom line has been raised considerably and the backlog has also grown.

Billings have collapsed, which is probably the reason, but I see a good long-term entry point