Postos
34Let's continue with the quarterly figures😬
among others
$NVDA (-3,63%)
$HIMS (-26,15%)
$HD (-2,25%)
$LOW (-2,87%)
$CRM (-2,41%)
$SNOW (-3,37%)
$VST (-7,68%)
$TMDX (-4,22%)
$O (+1,37%)
$STLAM (-0,34%)
$AXON (-4,57%)
$KDP (+3,46%)
$DOM (+2,55%)
$INTU (-1,66%)
$ZETA (-7,04%)
Wayfair ($W) (-8,73%) was a clear winner in e-commerce during the pandemic, but experienced a drastic crash afterwards. Now that the market has stabilized, investors are asking themselves: Is Wayfair ripe for a comeback or will the company remain under pressure?
Overview: What does Wayfair do?
Wayfair is one of the world's largest online retailers for furniture and home accessories. The company operates an asset-light model, which means that it does not produce its own furniture, but brokers products via a broad network of manufacturers and suppliers.
✅ Wayfair.com: Main platform for online furniture retail in the USA, Canada and Europe.
✅ Wayfair Professional: B2B platform for companies and interior designers.
✅ Perigold, AllModern, Birch Lane and Joss & Main: Other brands covering different design styles.
Wayfair relies heavily on data analysis and AIto understand buying behavior and optimize the supply chain.
Competition: Who are the competitors?
🔸 Amazon ($AMZN) (-2,39%) & Walmart ($WMT) (-2,31%) - Huge competition in online retail, which also offer furniture.
🔸 IKEA - The stationary furniture giant that is constantly expanding its online presence.
🔸 Home Depot ($HD) (-2,25%) & Lowe's ($LOW) (-2,87%) - Important competitors in the Home & Living segment.
🔸 Etsy ($ETSY) (-0,39%) & smaller specialty retailers - Competition from individual furniture and decoration suppliers.
Wayfair has the advantage of being a pure online specialist specialist for furniture, but has to hold its own against financially strong rivals.
Opportunities: Why could Wayfair make a comeback?
✅ Efficiency gains: Wayfair has worked hard on its cost structure and reduced staff in recent quarters.
✅ Stabilization of demand: After the extreme boom in 2020-2021 and the decline in 2022-2023, the market could now normalize.
✅ Improved consumer climate: Falling inflation and potential interest rate cuts could boost purchasing power.
✅ Improved margins: The company has recently achieved higher gross margins, which indicates better cost control.
✅ Expansion of B2B business: Wayfair Professional continues to grow and could be a stable revenue generator in the long term.
Risks: What could continue to weigh on Wayfair? ⚠️
⚠️ High competitive pressure: Amazon, IKEA and Walmart are strong opponents with better supply chains.
⚠️ Dependence on macro factors: High interest rates and weak consumer sentiment could delay the recovery.
⚠️ Profitability remains fragile: Wayfair has made losses in the past and needs to show it can sustain profits.
⚠️ Logistics and storage costs: Despite efficiency gains, shipping bulky furniture remains a challenge.
⚠️ Customer loyalty: Unlike Apple or Tesla, customers have little loyalty to Wayfair - many simply compare prices with the competition.
Conclusion: turnaround opportunity or value trap?
Wayfair could be one of the most exciting turnaround candidates in 2025. The company has worked hard on its cost structure and could benefit from a recovery in consumer sentiment. However, competition remains intense and it is not yet certain whether Wayfair will become sustainably profitable.
What do you think? Does Wayfair have the potential for a strong recovery or will the share remain a shaky candidate? 🚀
Lowe's Q3 FY24 #EarningsReport Summary | $LOW (-2,87%)
In Q3 FY24, Lowe's faced challenges from reduced DIY discretionary demand, partly offset by strong Pro sales, online growth, and storm-related purchases. Despite these challenges, Lowe's demonstrated resilience with earnings exceeding modest expectations.
📊 Income Statement Highlights (vs. Q3 FY23):
▫️ Net Income: $1.70B vs. $1.77B (-4.39%)
▫️ Total Revenue: $20.17B vs. $20.47B (-1.47%)
▫️ Adjusted EPS: $2.89 vs. $3.06 (-5.56%)
▫️ Gross Margin: 33.69% vs. 33.66% (+0.03pp)
▫️ Operating Income: $2.54B vs. $2.70B (-5.93%)
▫️ GAAP Operating Margin: 12.57% vs. 13.17% (-0.60pp)
💼 Balance Sheet Highlights (vs. Q3 FY23):
▫️ Total Assets: $44.74B (+5.23%)
▫️Total Liabilities: $58.16B (+0.86%)
▫️ Shareholders' Deficit: $(13.42)B vs. $(15.15)B (+11.38%)
▫️ Cash and Cash Equivalents: $3.27B vs. $1.21B (+170.25%)
🔮 Future Outlook:
For FY24, Lowe's updated its guidance:
▫️ Total sales: $83.0B–$83.5B (previously $82.7B–$83.2B)
▫️ Comparable sales: Down 3.0%–3.5% (improved from down 3.5%–4.0%)
▫️ Adjusted Operating Margin: 12.3%–12.4%
▫️ Adjusted EPS: $11.80–$11.90
Lowe’s strategic priorities for Q4 include leveraging Pro and online growth, while navigating ongoing DIY demand softness. Anticipated storm-related sales will provide modest tailwinds.
Given the continued stability of real estate prices and expected demand driven by factors such as urbanization and immigration (at least in the US), I see several sectors and companies benefiting from this trend:
REITs, $DHI (-1,49%) , $LEN (-1,45%) , $HD (-2,25%) , $LOW (-2,87%) , $CAT (-2,26%)
However, there has already been a good boost in the current YTD.
Have a nice Sunday everyone!
BILL ACKMAN BOUGHT $NKE (-0,48%)
It's one of his first buys in over a year.
This position represent 2.2% of his 10$ bln portfolio and roughly a 0.19% ownership of Nike.
He hasn't made any public comment yet about this decision.
He drastically reduced is position even if it remains still is 2° holding.
He sold about 28% of his $GOOGL (-2,28%) position (both Class A and Class C)
He opened a new position in $BN (-1,74%) ad now represents roughly 3% of his total portfolio.
He sold 100% of shares in $LOW (-2,87%) after he made approximately 140% gain.
Bill Ackman is a famous superinvestor known for his approach of owning few stocks and limiting the diversification.
Considerations:
He probably sold because he knew that the CEO was going to leave or because of the high valuation this company has.
Lowe's and Home Depot are good business especially when interest rates are low, probably he thinks that interests rates reduction are going to take a lot of time.
I am surprised to see that he has sold considering how good Alphabet is as a company and the valuation is not high.
I am surprised to see that he bought Nike.
I always imagined Bill A. as the kind of investor who would have bought $LULU (-1,51%) instead.
Right now Lululemon has a lower valuation than Nike, but better growth ahead.
Another week, another (fractional) share of $V (-0,16%) 💳
Today’s purchase brings to me up to just about 14 total shares of Visa. At this point, it’s the 7th largest position in the portfolio, and is just a hair behind the 6th largest, $LOW (-2,87%).
I plan to keep chipping away at Visa until I reach 20 shares, and then I’ll consider contributing to other things again. It’s getting really tempting not to add to some of my down/break even positions like $SBUX (-0,91%) ,$WPC (+1,13%), or $JNJ (+2,12%)…but what are you going to do, gotta keep the focus!
Which stocks are you buying this week? Let me know in the comments! 👇
The coming week summarized:
Monday:
Tuesday:
Wednesday:
Thursday:
Friday:
Q4-2023 - Bill Ackman - Pershing Square Capital Management
He reduced his stake in $LOW (-2,87%) by about 82%, his share went from 16% to 2.67%.
Principais criadores desta semana
