Happy New Year everyone! We are starting the new year with adjustments to the Sina ETF. (The performance here below somehow no longer corresponds to the actual performance, but so be it...) After this post you'll have peace and quiet from my ETF again :D

I sold some stocks and invested the dividends I received last year. That left me with 19 euros in cash, so it's still a 40-share ETF ;)

If this were my only portfolio, I would probably have held more cash and not reinvested directly, as the entry point doesn't always seem optimal. But I also proceeded without regard to entry points.

For the question of how high the profits or losses were, please refer to the portfolio.

Out are:

$STLAM (-0,19%) (loss)

$AFX (-1,69%) (loss)

$MC (+1,1%) (loss)

$OR (+0,84%) (loss)

$7203 (-0,9%) (loss)

$D05 (-0,67%) (Profit)

$RHM (-0,32%) (Profit)

$ENR (+2,2%) (Profit; also dropped from my "real" portfolio)

Partial sale:

$WMT (+0,15%) at 50%

Increased by:

$AAPL (+0,26%)

$MSFT (+0,09%)

$ASML (-0,24%) Since the position was down over 20%, but I am convinced in the long term

$GOOGL (+0,37%)

New additions:

$BKNG (-0,31%)

$JPM (-0,06%)

$NU (+0,51%)

$COST (+0,29%)

$AFL (+0,1%)

$INTC (+0,4%)

$CRM (+0,03%)

$NOVO B (+0,63%)

BREAKING NEWS: $SOFI (+0,05%) - The Biden administration has withdrawn its plan to forgive student loan debt for some 38 million Americans.

This should finally put it off the table.

To put it in perspective, although the Supreme Court had already ruled it unconstitutional, borrowers were once again to be exempt from paying interest on regular payments, receive US$10,000 debt forgiveness and not have to repay the loan at all below certain income limits. This new plan/attempt has now been dropped, resulting in $SOFI (+0,05%) has led to a lack of income during Corona.

Who $SOFI (+0,05%) do not yet know, please take a look:

https://getqu.in/M3ToeR/

🎅🎄🌲🚀

$JPM (-0,06%) , $MS (+0,5%) , $BAC (+0,11%) , $C (+0,11%) , $WFC (-0,01%)

The oil market is facing one of the most complex challenges since the pandemic, due to a combination of geopolitical tensions, long-term production strategies and volatile demand, particularly from China and Europe. OPEC+ decisions and uncertainties in the US are currently shaping market conditions and putting pressure on both producers and consumers.

OPEC+: strategy of production delays

OPEC+, an association of 23 oil countries, has continuously extended its voluntary production cuts since 2022. These measures were aimed at stabilizing oil prices post-pandemic slumps. In June 2024, the original plan was to gradually increase production by 2.2 million barrels per day. In the most recent decisions, the following was decided:

• The production increase has been postponed again and is now scheduled to begin in April 2025 at the earliest.
• OPEC+ originally planned to extend its current production cuts until September 2025 completely. This deadline has now been extended by one year, meaning that the cuts will not be reversed until September 2026 be completed.
• This is the third delay in 6 months.

Reasons for the delay

Weak demand:

• China is experiencing slower economic growth, which is dampening demand for oil. In the third quarter of 2024, the Chinese economy grew by 4.6%, the weakest growth in a year and a half. Economic growth of around 4.8% is expected for 2024, with a further slowdown to 4.5% in 20251. The World Bank forecasts real GDP growth of 4.5% for 2024 and 4.3% for 2025. The main reasons for the slowdown in growth are weak domestic demand and consumer restraint, the real estate crisis and uncertainty on the labor market.

• European demand also remains subdued due to the energy transition, economic uncertainties and geopolitics.

Alternative offers:

• Countries such as the USA, Brazil and Canadawhich are not part of OPEC+, are taking the opportunity to increase their own oil production in order to benefit from the higher prices resulting from the OPEC+ production cuts.
• These countries can supply the market with additional oil, which could enable them to gain market share.

Risk of excess supply:

• If these countries continue to increase their production volumes while global demand for oil may stagnate or grow more slowly, this could lead to an oversupply.

- Such an oversupply would lower the oil price again, which would undermine OPEC+'s strategic cuts.

Internal tensions in OPEC+:

• States such as the United Arab Emirates are pushing for higher production volumes, while Saudi Arabia continues to pursue a restrictive policy in order to ensure price stability.
• The UAE produced around 700,000 barrels more than agreed with OPEC+ from January to October 2024. The agreed output for the UAE was 2.91 million barrels per day, but this is excused by a waiver to increase its output by 200,000 barrels per day to 3.2 million barrels per day in 2024.

• Saudi Arabia has extended its voluntary production cuts until the end of June 2024. They reduced production by 1 million barrels per day in addition to an earlier cut of 500,000 barrels per day. Saudi production will be around 9 million barrels per day by the end of June 2024.

Reasons for the tensions:

• The UAE has invested heavily in capacity reserves and is pushing to use them. However, Saudi Arabia is aiming to support oil prices by cutting production.

Price trends and market forecasts

The Brent price is currently at $IOIL00 (+0,27%) which represents a decline of around 18% compared to the peak in July 2024. The price of US WTI oil $CRUD (+0,86%) are in a similar range.

Forecasts

• $C (+0,11%) has revised its forecast upwards and sees an optimistic scenario of 60-65 USD per barrel for the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025.
• $JPM (-0,06%) forecasts an average Brent oil price of 84 USD per barrel for 2024. For 2025, JPMorgan expects an average price of USD 75 per barrel
• $GS (+0,17%) has revised its forecast for 2024 to an average of USD 81 per barrel for Brent oil.

Long-term prospects

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts an average Brent price of USD 61 per barrel for 2025 and 73 USD per barrel for 2030.

Effects on the producing countries

Saudi Arabia:

• Saudi Arabia needs high oil prices to balance its budget. According to forecasts, the threshold is currently around 96 USD per barrelwell above current market prices. This dependency is particularly evident in megaprojects such as Neom City and the Vision 2030which are dependent on stable income. In addition, the organization of events such as the Soccer World Cup 2034 and the Expo 2030 massive budgetary resources.
• Despite these conditions, there are signs of a possible change in strategy. Saudi Arabia could abandon its previous target of an oil price of 100 USD per barrel in order to regain market share. However, this could mean lower oil prices, which would make it more difficult to finance projects and put additional pressure on budget stability.

Russia:

• Oil plays a central role in financing the war in Ukraine. In 2024, almost a third of the Russian state budget is to be used for military spending, which amounts to around 111 billion euros equivalent. The Kremlin is financing this high expenditure through budget reallocations and is relying heavily on oil revenues to fund the war.
• Western sanctions have affected Russian oil exports, but Russia has found ways to partially circumvent them, as I explained in another report (link in the comments). A shadow fleet of oil tankers makes it possible to continue exporting oil despite sanctions. However, revenues are no longer as high as before the sanctions, and lower oil prices could further limit Russia's financial options for the war.
• Despite the sanctions, the Russian economy has adapted faster than expected. Through more intensive trade with countries such as China and other non-Western countries, the circumvention of the G7 oil price cap and increased government spending on the military industry, Russia has been able to take countermeasures. Nevertheless, it remains vulnerable to price fluctuations on the global oil market and faces an acute labor shortage.
• The extension or tightening of Western sanctions could significantly further impact Russia's oil exports and thus revenues, which would pose new challenges to the country's economic stability.

Iran:

• Iran has significantly increased its oil exports since 2021, with an average export of 1.56 million barrels per day in the first 3 months of 2024 (the highest in 6 years). This increase of 1.2 million barrels per day since 2021 is plausible given the low level of exports at the time.
• With the election victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential elections, however, Iran is facing a possible new round of sanctions. Trump is planning a return to the "maximum pressure" strategy that drastically reduced Iran's exports from 2.5 million to just 350,000 barrels per day within 2 years during his previous term.
• The reintroduction of such sanctions could have a significant impact on the global oil market. Especially China's China's role is crucial here, as it absorbed more than 85% of Iran's oil exports this year. At the same time, Iran has improved its mechanisms for circumventing sanctions, which could reduce the effectiveness of new measures. Overall, renewed sanctions could destabilize the oil market, but the exact extent remains difficult to predict as Iran has significantly increased its ability to maintain trade routes.

Long-term challenges and opportunities

Energy transition and decarbonization

• Europe: Promotes investment in renewable energy and reduces oil consumption.
• China: Is investing massively in electromobility, which will reduce oil demand in the long term

Technological innovations

• Countries such as the USA are focusing on technologies to increase oil extraction from shale oil deposits.
• This could reduce production costs and increase competitiveness.

Role of OPEC+ in the future

• Long-term coordination within OPEC+ is becoming more difficult as national interests increasingly diverge.
• A possible split in the alliance cannot be ruled out if countries such as the UAE and Russia assert their own interests more strongly.

+++ News: Heated mood around US health insurers +++

The shares of well-known insurance companies such as $UNH (+0,29%) but also those of competitors $ELV (-0,05%)
$HUM (-1,02%) and $CI (+0,28%) have fallen surprisingly this week. Although the losses are limited, the reasons for this are more than just shocking.

As I reported earlier, the CEO of United Healthcare's insurance division was the victim of a targeted assassination. While the police are now investigating at full speed, the perpetrator is currently the target of downright hero worship on social media. The assassin is repeatedly equated with characters from pop culture such as Batman, Robin Hood or John Wick.

Insults against the victim and his family are also liked and shared thousands of times. It is not just the viciousness of the comments that is frightening - but the fact that, as is so often the case in such instances, the platforms simply let them stand.

Insurers' shares are currently falling because there are fears that there could be further murders of insurance employees. The management of the major insurance companies is alarmed and has hastily removed photos and other personal data of their "C-level executives" from their websites.

Commentary and classification: After the failed assassination attempt on Trump, I'm hardly surprised at the kind of people we're dealing with here. The same people who talk about democracy and human rights in every other sentence are the same people who are now calling for the assassination of their ideological opponents once again. Even a good ESG score doesn't help United Health against so much hatred.

From a purely shareholder perspective, this charged sentiment towards the banking and insurance sector is $JPM (-0,06%) is of course a systemic risk when investing. However, these are not necessarily particularly controversial sectors. Retailers $WMT (+0,15%) pharmaceuticals $PFE (+0,22%)
$CVS (+0,84%) consumer goods manufacturers $KVUE (-0,79%)
$BATS (+0,22%) defense companies $LMT (+1,29%) etc. could soon find themselves in the crosshairs.

If you really want to be absolutely sure of being invested in a politically correct way, simply put your money in Northvolt and make a 90% loss. This also ensures that you can "eat the rich" can no longer be meant.

07.11.2024

iPhone sales boost revenue for chip designer Arm + Qualcomm beats expectations for fourth quarter + Novo Nordisk: weight loss and diabetes drugs flourish + Trump election victory sends bank shares sharply higher + Aurora Cannabis quarterly figures

The chip designer Arm Holdings $ARM (+0,21%) achieved higher sales in the second quarter than in the same period of the previous year. The company benefited from the sale of Apple's $AAPL (+0,26%) iPhones, Arm announced on Wednesday after the close of the US stock exchange. The British chip designer reported a profit of 30 US cents per share for the past quarter, adjusted for share-based payments and other factors. Analysts had expected a profit of 26 cents per share. Arm's turnover rose by five percent to 844 million dollars, compared to analysts' estimates of 808.4 million. However, the company forecast revenue for the current quarter to be only in the middle of estimates. Arm expects revenue to be between $920 million and $970 million, with a midpoint of $945 million, compared to the average analyst estimate of $944.3 million. The company expects third-quarter earnings of between 32 and 36 cents per share. Analysts had projected earnings of 34 cents per share for the third quarter. Arm collects a license fee for every chip sold that uses its technology. Arm's designs power almost every smartphone in the world.

The results of Qualcomm $QCOM (+0,47%) 's fourth-quarter results were better than expected as the chip supplier posted its fifth consecutive quarter of record automotive sales. Adjusted earnings per share rose to $2.69 from $2.02 a year ago, above the $2.57 consensus surveyed by Capital IQ. Non-GAAP revenue rose 18% year-over-year to $10.24 billion in the three months ended Sept. 29, beating Wall Street expectations of $9.93 billion. Qualcomm shares rose 7% in after-hours trading on Wednesday. Sales at Qualcomm's CDMA technology division, which represents its semiconductor business, rose 18% to $8.68 billion, driven by a 68% increase in the auto division to $899 million. Cell phone sales rose 12% to $6.1 billion, while the Internet of Things division increased 22% to $1.68 billion, the company said. Technology licensing revenue rose 21% to $1.52 billion. Qualcomm expects first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.85 to $3.05 on revenue of between $10.5 billion and $11.3 billion.

The pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (+0,63%) continues to do good business with its top-selling diabetes and weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy. Group-wide sales of the Danish company increased by 21 percent to 71.3 billion Danish crowns (around 9.6 billion euros) in the third quarter, as the manufacturer announced in Baegsvaerd on Wednesday. The bottom line profit climbed by a good fifth to 27.3 billion Danish kroner. The Group thus performed better than analysts had expected. The management is now once again narrowing its sales and profit expectations for the year. An increase in revenue at constant exchange rates of 23 to 27 percent is now expected for the year as a whole. This is one percentage point more at the lower end, but also one percent less at the upper end than recently. The Danes are now predicting an increase in operating profit of 21 to 27 percent, excluding exchange rate effects. This means that the Group is also expecting slightly more at the lower end and slightly less at the upper end than before. In the summer, Novo Nordisk had already lowered its target for this key figure.

Donald Trump's clear victory in the US presidential election catapulted the share prices of US banks and financial services providers higher on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan climbed to record highs in the Dow Jones Industrial benchmark index. Goldman $GS (+0,17%) recently gained around 12 percent, while JPMorgan $JPM (-0,06%) the gain amounted to more than 9 percent. In the S&P 500 Citigroup $C (+0,11%), Wells Fargo $WFC (-0,01%) and Morgan Stanley $MS (+0,5%) were similarly strong. Capital One Financial $COF (+0,58%)gained over 13 percent. A more protectionist trade policy is emerging in the USA under Trump. There is a threat of high import duties and corporate taxes could be lowered. However, debt could also increase. Bank shares benefited on Wednesday from the prospect of looser financial market regulation. In addition, interest rates could rise in view of a possible increase in debt - this would also be to the benefit of banks, for example in the lending business.

Aurora Cannabis figures $ACB (+0,23%)

• Record adjusted EBITDA1 of USD 10.1 million, an increase of 210% year-on-year
• Quarterly net revenue1 increased 29% to $81.1 million, with 41% growth in Global Medical Cannabis
• Reaffirms target of positive free cash flow1 in the quarter ending December 31, 2024
• Maintains a strong balance sheet with ~$152 million in cash and a debt-free cannabis business2

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

H & M Hennes & Mauritz (B) 3.25 SE

BP 0.08 USD

Ford Motor 0.15 USD

Unilever 0.37 GBP

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

12:30 Moderna quarterly figures

12:55 Under Armour quarterly figures

22:00 Expedia | News Quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

06:45 Adtran Networks | Zurich Insurance | Basler Quarterly figures

07:00 Daimler Truck | Heidelberg Materials | Lanxess | Nemetschek | Nordex | Rational | Arcelormittal | AMS-Osram | Aareal | Hamborner Reit | Knaus Tabbert quarterly figures

07:15 Air France-KLM quarterly figures

07:30 Compugroup | Delivery Hero | Munich Re | Rheinmetall | Telefonica | Adyen | Deutz quarterly figures

07:30 Dürr | Instone | Koenig & Bauer | Mutares | SGL Carbon | SNP Schneider quarterly figures

07:50 Suss Microtec quarterly figures

08:00 Verbund AG | PNE | BT Group | National Grid | CRH Quarterly Figures | Rolls-Royce Trading Update 3Q

10:00 Qiagen quarterly figures

14:30 Hochtief quarterly figures

17:50 Pirelli quarterly figures

18:00 Freenet quarterly figures

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Trade balance September trade balance calendar and seasonally adjusted FORECAST: +19.0 bn Euro previous: +22.5 bn Euro Exports FORECAST: -2.8% yoy previous: +1.3% yoy Imports FORECAST: -0.2% yoy previous: -3.4% yoy
• 08:00 DE: Production in the manufacturing sector September seasonally adjusted FORECAST: -0.9% yoy previous: +2.9% yoy | Turnover in the service sector October
• 11:00 EU: Retail Sales September Eurozone PROGNOSE: +0.5% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy
• 13:00 UK: BoE, outcome and minutes of the Monetary Policy Council meeting and Monetary Policy Report October Bank Rate FORECAST: 4.75% previously: 5.00%
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 220,000 PREVIOUS: 216,000
• 14:30 US: Productivity ex Agriculture (1st release) 3Q annualized PROGNOSE: +2.5% yoy 2Q: +2.5% yoy Unit labor costs PROGNOSE: +1.1% yoy 2Q: +0.4% yoy
• 20:00 US: Fed, outcome of FOMC meeting Fed funds target rate FORECAST: 4.50% to 4.75% Previous: 4.75% to 5.00%

All of these shares reached new ALL-TIME HIGHS at some point today ⤵️

Nvidia $NVDA (+0,89%)

Amazon $AMZN (-0,01%)

Netflix $NFLX (-0,3%)

Walmart $WMT (+0,15%)

JPMorgan $JPM (-0,06%)

Goldman Sachs $GOS0

Palantir $PLTR (-2,66%)

Blackrock $BLK

American Express $AXP (+0,55%)

Arista $ANET

Apollo $APO PR A

Blackstone $BX (+0,11%)

Booking $BKNG (-0,31%)

Instacart $INSTA

Caterpillar $CAT (+0,29%)

Capital One $COF (+0,58%)

Discover Financial $DFS (+0,88%)

Electronic Arts $EA (+0,01%)

GE Vernova $GEV (+0%)

Hilton $HLT (+0,13%)

Howmet $HWM (-0,71%)

Interactive Brokers $IBKR (+0,14%)

$KKR (-0,87%)

Cheniere $LNG (+0,18%)

Morgan Stanley $MS (+0,5%)

Marriot $MAR (-0,24%)

Nasdaq $NDAQ (+0,27%)

News Corp $NWSA (-0,37%)

Oracle $ORCL (-0,15%)

Palo Alto $PANW (-0,8%)

ServiceNow $NOW (-0,13%)

Steel Dynamics $STLD (+0,12%)

Stryker $SYK (-0,33%)

Royal Caribbean $RCL (+0,57%)

Reddit $RDDT (-9,82%)

Trade Desk $TTD (-0,27%)

Visa $V (+0,12%)

Wells Fargo $WFC (-0,01%)

Another great picture of Quartr

$MA (+0,69%)
$V (+0,12%)
$JPM (-0,06%)
$BAC (+0,11%)
$GOOGL (+0,37%)
$AAPL (+0,26%)

$JPM (-0,06%)

New head of the commercial real estate business 💪

I tidied up my portfolio a bit today. This has partly to do with the fact that I think the stock market is currently running a bit hot, but it's not the decisive factor; it's simply a time when it seems wise to sell some stocks that were no longer at the top of my want list anyway.

First of all, some of you may have noticed that I have switched most of the growth portfolio to ETFs. I've also tidied up a bit there, but it's not worth mentioning.

In the dividend portfolio, I shifted a little more back and forth; although initially I only shifted to the cash portfolio and not yet shifted :D Some of you may remember that I took over some of my grandparents' shares, some of which are also old tax holdings. This is also the case here. But there's no doubt that I also had to pay a lot of tax on the non-old stock. However, I also wanted to tidy up a bit, even though the dividend portfolio was actually intended for buy and hold (forever), so sometimes it turns out that you should perhaps sell after all.

$SBUX (-0,21%) I had started to build up a position at around 85. Then came the Starbucks "crash". This forced me to buy some more. However, the position has become far too large for my dividend portfolio, so I reduced it by a little more than 1/2.

$SAP (-0,3%)
@Karl_ <- Following on from Karl's post. I have a similar view and think that the valuation is no longer really justified. I am also unsure about the German market as a whole at the moment. But after all, SAP also does a lot of business in America. 100% out

$JPM (-0,06%) Perhaps a controversial decision. But I'm not entirely convinced by JPM's return on capital, even for a bank. It is certainly a good investment, but not for me at the moment. But that's more of a gut decision. 100% out

$DHL (-1,61%)
$7974 (+2,65%) were mini positions. Question: Continue to build up or get out? The latter was the answer. I don't see an absolute reason to buy at the moment. 100% liquidated

$JNJ (+0,31%) certainly also a controversial decision. However, I am not convinced by either the performance or the fundamentals. 100% out.

$AZN (+0,91%) Bought Corona for a good reason (vaccination). Now took profits. 100% out.

That's it for now. I now have a cash ratio of almost 50%, which is of course far too much. The cash will flow partly into ETFs in the former growth portfolio and partly into dividend stocks. The main focus will be on consumer staples, industrials and healthcare - if better opportunities arise there. I will gradually build up positions there and post my reasons accordingly.

Edit: I am always grateful for ideas in consumer staples/industrials/healthcare + dividend paying.