I challenge you to critique my current holdings. Any critique is welcome. Go!
Here are my current holdings:
Postos
14When I‘m screening markets for my investable universe I look for high-quality compounders with:
In detail I’m screening for:
Here are my current holdings:
Today I‘m sharing with you my main portfolio. This doesn’t include any ETF investments and crypto currencies / gold etc. since I want to focus my presence on getquin on stock-picking.
Read my 3-part portfolio strategy posts to get the full picture - here are just the main pillars of what I‘m doing:
I like to divide my holdings into „core holdings“ (forever stocks) and „trend picks“ (2030 stocks) as follows:
Core Holdings (“Forever Stocks”):
Growth Picks (“2030 Stocks”):
I use the 7 Powers framework from the book “7 Powers: The Foundations of Business Strategy” by Hamilton Helmer. It’s a killer framework for understanding why some businesses create lasting value and compound returns over time.
Each “Power” is a sustainable strategic advantage that lets a company generate outsized returns for a long time. I ask the 7 questions for each stock I am considering to buy.
1. Counter-Positioning
2. Scale Economies
3. Switching Costs
4. Network Effects
5. Branding
6. Cornered Resource
7. Process Power
If I had to chose one, Network effects would be the most important one for me.
Here are my current holdings:
Here are my current holdings:
My Portfolio is a selection of 15-25 companies which I am buying and planning on never selling. The overall criteria for my #investableuniverse are the following. I will go in-depth in another post:
Here are my current holdings:
Good evening everyone,
Here are my favorites for the health sector.
Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (+3,18%)
Stryker $SYK (+0,66%)
Intuitive Surgical (P/E ratio 70, P/B ratio 19 🤑) $ISRG (+0,24%)
Astra Zeneca $AZN (+1,35%)
Zoetis $ZTS (+0,71%)
Idexx Lab. $IDXX (+0,98%)
Amgen (profit margin declining) $AMGN (+1,55%)
I would be interested to know what your favorites are for a long-term investment?
I would like to use the current "black time" to structure my portfolio better and diversify it more. So far, I have overweighted some sectors rather arbitrarily, while others are completely absent. 😅
In order to achieve a more sound, sectoral diversification, I have looked at two things:
1. the long-term performance of the sectors in the S&P 500
2. the maximum drawdowns of these sectors over different time periods
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The following table shows the average annual returns of the S&P 500 sectors over 10, 20, 30 and 40 years.
It is striking: Some sectors have performed significantly better than others over longer periods of time. Particularly noteworthy are
- Information technology
- Healthcare
- Consumer staples (cyclical consumption)
These sectors achieved long-term average annual returns of over 10% p.a.
By contrast, the following sectors performed less convincingly:
- Energy
- Materials (basic materials)
- Real estate
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Unfortunately, historical drawdown data by sector is limited and not uniformly available. Nevertheless, a clear trend can be identified: The available data shows that defensive sectors tend to have lower drawdowns, while cyclical sectors are more prone to larger declines. So it looks like sectors such as consumer discretionary and healthcare tend to have lower maximum drawdowns, while sectors such as financials and energy have had the sharpest declines.
In the next step, I looked at the current (2024) market weighting of the sectors in the S&P 500, i.e. a market capitalization-weighted allocation as a passive ETF would reflect it:
Information Technology 28%
Healthcare 13 %
Financial services 12 %
Consumer Discretionary 10%
Communication services 8 %
Industry 8 %
Consumer staples 6 %
Energy 4 %
Utilities 3 %
Materials 2.5 %
Real estate 2.5 %
This is the first time I realize how much you have to overweight or underweight a sector in order to have the greatest probability of hypothetically beating the market in a fictitious, ideal scenario by means of sectoral overweighting and underweighting.
For example, only a weighting of well over 28% in information technology would have led to a possible outperformance.
Conversely, only a complete abandonment of the real estate sector could have made a positive contribution. (in retrospect)
Of course, this is a gross oversimplification, as each sector consists of a large number of companies of very different quality. Nevertheless, valuable insights for the strategic portfolio orientation can be derived from this.
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But now I'm at a crossroads.
Option A
I analyze current valuation ratios such as P/E ratios, Shiller P/E ratios or earnings growth per sector and decide on this basis which sectors appear most attractive for the future, i.e. an active, forward-looking approach.
Option B (my favorite):
I take my cue from long-term, historical average returns and risks and use them as a guide for strategic allocation - in other words, a more rule-based approach with a rational derivation.
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My sectoral target portfolio, based on risk-return profile and personal preference, could look like this:
Let's start from the back, the weakest sectors such as energy, real estate, utilities and basic materials have proven to be underperforming and often volatile over the long term. In total, I would therefore like to limit these to a maximum of 10% of my portfolio.
Industry 8 %
Financial services with 9 %
Communication services 10 %
Consumer staples with 13 %,
Healthcare 15 %
Consumer staples 15%
Information technology 20 %
The above weighting aims to create a portfolio that is both growth-oriented and risk-optimized in the long term.
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Conclusion 🤓
With this train of thought, I am pursuing a systematic and long-term approach that takes both opportunities and risks into account. The aim is to create a portfolio that remains stable and profitable in different market phases. Of course, it will not always be easy to implement these weightings perfectly in practice, but this strategy provides a clear direction as a basis.
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Sources 🤯
JP Morgan Asset Management - Guide to the Markets
www.vanguard.com Principles for Investing Success
Idexx Laboratories ( IDXX ) clearly exceeded Wall Street's expectations for the fourth quarter on Monday. Idexx shares reached a four-month high.
Idexx manufactures diagnostic products for veterinary practices. In the December quarter, the company earned 2.62 dollars per share on sales of 954 million dollars. On a purely balance sheet basis, profit rose by 13 percent, while turnover increased by 6 percent. Both figures exceeded forecasts, said Ryan Daniels, analyst at William Blair, in a report to clients.
Daniels acknowledged that a decline in vet visits weighed on Idexx shares. However, higher prices and an increase in the number of new pets - thanks in part to the "pandemic puppy boom" - should help offset some of the slump in vet visits, he said.
"We believe the aging pet population will begin as early as this year and peak in 2030 or 2031, creating a growing need for veterinary care (especially diagnostics), which will provide a solid long-term tailwind for the industry," he said.
On the stock market today, shares of Idexx rose more than 11% to 470.29. It was the first time since September that shares rose above their 200-day moving average.
Mixed forecast from Idexx Laboratories
Notably, recurring revenue from pet diagnostics rose 6% in the three months to December 31. This was in line with Idexx Laboratories' forecast of organic growth of 5.8 % to 6.4 %.
For the year, Idexx forecast sales of just under 4.06 to 4.17 billion dollars. The midpoint of the forecast was below analysts' projection of $4.14 billion, William Blair's Daniels said. However, the midpoint of the company's profit forecast exceeded expectations. Idexx expects earnings of 11.74 to 12.24 dollars per share.
Daniels maintained his Outperform rating on Idexx shares.
"Overall, we still view the veterinary market as a safe investment area due to its resilience to recessions, strong pricing power, lack of political risk and favorable demographics," he said.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/idexx-laboratories-earnings-q4-2024-idexx-stock/
Despite going sideways since the fourth quarter of 2020, $IDXX (+0,98%) has returned roughly 640% over the past ten years, which is a mile above the already impressive 234% return of the S&P 500.
$IDXX (+0,98%) has a lofty valuation...but with strong financials, consistent revenue growth, and long-term growth prospects, is it still an opportunity right now🤔
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