Huntington US (HII ) Estoque Fórum e discussão

🚨 Disclaimer: This is not investment advice; I am invested in all the stocks discussed here.

These analyses are primarily for my personal decision-making - I am happy if they also offer added value for you 🙂

Here we go already!

Europe's defense industry has experienced a boom since the war in Ukraine: in 2024, global military spending rose by 9.4% to a record high of USD 2.72 trillion - the sharpest increase since the Cold War.

Europe in particular increased its budgets (including Russia) by around 17%, driven by the new threat situation.

This rearmament is also benefiting US arms companies, as many European armed forces are increasingly relying on US weapons systems.

🤔 Trump 2.0 - tailwind or risk for US defense stocks?

Since Donald Trump moved back into the White House in January 2025, US defense policy has changed noticeably - with a direct impact on the defense industry and its investors.

📈 Defense spending on record course

Trump has announced a defense budget for fiscal year 2026 of over 1 trillion USD an increase of 13% compared to the previous year.

Of particular note is the ambitious "Golden Dome" project, a space-based missile defense system estimated at USD 175 billion and involving companies such as Lockheed Martin and SpaceX.

📉 Protectionism as a double-edged sword

At the same time, Trump is pursuing an aggressive trade policy:

10% base tariff on all imports, with higher "reciprocal" tariffs for countries with trade surpluses with the US.
Doubling steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, which will increase the cost of arms production in particular.

These measures could put a strain on supply chains and increase production costs for US defense companies. RTX (formerly Raytheon) expects additional costs of up to USD 850 million in 2025 alone as a result of the new tariffs.

👉 Importance of US weapons systems for Europe's defense:

Many European armed forces rely on US technology. Examples include the procurement of F-35 stealth jets (e.g. by Germany, Poland, Finland), Patriot air defense systems (e.g. by Germany, Poland) or Abrams tanks (Poland).

US systems are considered combat-proven and immediately available, which improves interoperability within NATO in Europe.

Europe benefits from US innovations (e.g. drones, missiles, fighter jets), while the USA receives stable sales markets in return.

Especially against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and new threats (Russia, terror, unstable regions), Europe's dependence on US armaments continues to grow.

🚨 Even if Europe wants to become more "strategically autonomous" in the long term, US defense systems are irreplaceable for the foreseeable future. Anyone who wants to seriously pursue national or alliance defense needs US technology - both operationally and politically.

📍 Stock analysis - Fundamental & Technical

Following this overview, here are six selected US defense stocks in detail.

For each share, we look at the strategic benefits, current business figures including management outlook, key valuation ratios, analyst assessments, the attractiveness of entering the market at the current price and the dividend situation.

ℹ️ My approach to technical analysis:

My entries are usually follow-on purchases as part of a long-term buy-and-hold approach. I do not try to time tops or bottoms, but look for zones where opportunities and risks are well balanced in the long term.

👉 Important here: sometimes "doing nothing" is the best decision.

If the price doesn't reach my buyback zones - then I simply don't buy more. Patience is often a better entry trigger than actionism (especially in the case of highly volatile defense stocks).

📉 I let the market come to me - not the other way around.

📍 Lockheed Martin $LMT (+1,37%)

Strategic benefit:

World leader in stealth jets (F-35), missile defense, space - essential for NATO partners.

Key points:

Q1 2025: revenue +4%, EPS $7.28, order backlog at record level ($173 bn)
Outlook 2025: EPS $27-27.30, stable growth - focus on F-35, missiles
Valuation: P/E ~17-18, PEG ~1.6, debt low
Analysts: 7 Buy / 8 Hold → Moderate Buy, target price ~+8 %
Dividend: $3.30/Q, increase for 22 years, ~2.7 % yield
🟡 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 6/10 - Solid basic investment, but no bargain

📈 LMT weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

Current rebound from strong support zone, supported by 200-SMA and volume profile.
Momentum slightly positive, but no clear breakout yet
USD 495-500 zone = key resistance
Support stable, but risk increases significantly below USD 450
Currently: technically neutral to slightly bullish - with potential for a breakout if volumes continue to rise
👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: near the 200-SMA (currently approx. USD 450)

📍 RTX Corporation $RTX (+0,53%)

Strategic benefit:

Combines military systems (Patriot, missiles) with commercial aviation (Pratt & Whitney).

Key points:

Q1 2025: revenue +5%, EPS $1.47 - but tariffs weigh $850m.
Outlook 2025: Sales $83-84 bn, EPS $6.00-6.15 - solid but cautious
Valuation: P/E ~22, EV/EBITDA ~18, debt increased
Analysts: majority Buy, target price ~+5-8
Dividend: $0.68/Q, ~2.1 % yield, >50 years of increases
🟢 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 7/10 - turnaround bet with aviation fantasy

📈 RTX weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

RTX is clearly moving in an overarching uptrend since the low at the end of 2023
Bottom formation 2022-2023 was completed with high volume, breakout above USD 115 was decisive
Consolidation above the 50-SMA is constructive - pullbacks to the USD 122/115 area would be technically healthy pullbacks
Trend: Bullish
Breakout above USD 139 could trigger strong new momentum as there is hardly any volume resistance
👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: in zone around the 50-SMA (122-115 USD)

📍 General Dynamics $GD (+0,57%)

Strategic benefit:

Strong in tanks (Abrams), submarines, naval vessels - broad portfolio + Gulfstream business jets.

Key points:

Q1 2025: revenue +14%, EPS $3.66, book-to-bill stable
Outlook: EPS +9-10% in 2025, robust despite weaker order intake
Valuation: P/E ratio ~15-16, debt low, PEG high
Analysts: 8 Buy / 13 Hold → Moderate Buy, price target slightly above market
Dividend: $1.50/Q, 28-year increase, ~2.5% yield
🟢 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 8/10 - undervalued, solid basis, little hype

📈 GD weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

GD is technically stabilized, but with limited momentum
The reversal at the 200-SMA was convincing, but the subsequent rise has so far remained capped below the 50-SMA
Trend: bullish in the long term, neutral to slightly bearish in the medium term
Solid support at ~ USD 245 - technical basis intact
Breakout above USD 280 necessary to spark new momentum
👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: in zone around the 200-SMA (245-250 USD)

📍 Northrop Grumman $NOC (+0,73%)

Strategic benefit:

High-tech focus: B-21, missiles, drones, cyber & space - Key role in future conflicts.

Key points:

Q1 2025: revenue -6.6%, EPS $6.06 (adjusted), outlook lowered
Projects: Delays on B-21, but backlog at $92.8 bn.
Valuation: P/E ~17-18, EV/EBITDA ~13, PEG >2
Analysts: 12 Buy / 8 Hold, target price ~+15 %
Dividend: $2.31/Q (+12%), 22-year increase, ~1.9% yield
🟡 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 6/10 - technology leader with short-term pressure

📈 NOC weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

NOC has been moving in a broad sideways channel since the end of 2022 (~ USD 440-540)
Trend: Sideways/Based, within established range
USD 460-465 zone = central key support, has been confirmed
Break above USD 510 necessary to release new momentum
Current: technically neutral with a positive trend if it holds above USD 460 - a good area to hedge
👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: in the zone around the 200-SMA (USD 460-480)

📍 Huntington Ingalls $HII (+1,4%)

Strategic benefit:

Only US aircraft carrier builder; key role in Navy ships & nuclear-powered submarines.

Key points:

Q1 2025: sales -2.5%, profit -2.6% - production problems (shortage of skilled workers)
Outlook 2025: conservative, stable navy orders, focus on efficiency
Valuation: P/E ~14-15, EV/EBITDA ~11, PEG >2
Analysts: Hold prevails, price target ~+15%
Dividend: $1.35/Q, ~2.5% yield, 13-year increase
🟡 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 5/10 - value case with operational question mark

📈 HII weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

HII is not a trend value, but has been in a large sideways structure for 5 years (approx. USD 180-270)
The most recent recovery after falling back below USD 200 was dynamic, but there is currently no follow-up buying pressure above the 50-SMA
The area around USD 223 (currently) has been a pivotal point in recent years - directionless but stable
Neutral in the long term, weak below the 50-SMA in the short term
Key zone of USD 208-210 as a technical hedge (with high volume)
Break above USD 235 necessary to open up space to USD 260
Currently: range-bound character, with trading opportunities within established range
→ Long-term breakout above USD 270 would be necessary to release new momentum
👉 Currently no additional buying planned

📍 CACI International $CACI (+3,55%)

Strategic benefit:

Specialist in cybersecurity, intelligence & AI - delivers digital capabilities for the modern military.

Key points:

Q3 FY25: revenue +11.8%, book-to-bill >1, guidance raised
Forecast 2025: EPS ~$24, sales ~$8.3 bn, strong organic growth
Valuation: P/E ~18, EV/EBITDA ~12, PEG ~1, debt moderate
Analysts: 20 Buy / hardly Hold - target price +20
Dividend: None - focus on reinvestment & buybacks
🟢 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 8/10 - Growth story in defensive sector

📈 CACI weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

CACI was heavily overbought at the beginning of 2024, followed by a sharp setback to ~340 USD
Rebound at the 50-SMA did not bring new high momentum → rejection with currently -7.3 %
The large volume in the sell-off and the recovery indicate institutional activity, but also increased uncertainty
Structure remains bullish above USD 350but shaky in the short term
Long-term uptrend still intact, but with increased volatility
Break above USD 460 would be technically strong - below that rather range behavior
Current: technically neutral to weak, pullback was too steep to confirm new strength
👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: Above the 200-SMA (350-370 USD)