Postos
42🔹 Revenue: $13.93B (Est. $13.68B) 🟢
🔹 Adj EPS: $0.75 (Est. $0.74) 🟢
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $1.5B (Est. $1.22B) 🟢
Q3 Segments:
🔹 Personal Systems Revenue: $9.93B (Est. $9.72B) 🟢
🔹 Printing Revenue: $3.60B (no est.)
Q4 Guidance:
🔹 Adj EPS: $0.87–$0.97 (Est. $0.91) 🟡
🔹 GAAP EPS: $0.75–$0.85
FY25 Guidance:
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $2.6B–$3.0B (reaffirmed)
Profitability & Ops:
🔹 Net Income: $800M; EPS $0.80
🔹 Adj Net Income: $700M vs. $718M est.
🔹 Operating Income: $716M
🔹 Pretax Profit: $624M
As a listener to the conference call on HP's financial results ($HPQ (+0,02%) ) for the first quarter of the 2025 financial year, I was able to get a detailed overview of the company's current situation and future plans.
Enrique Lores, CEO of HP, emphasized that the first quarter was a strong start to the year, with revenue growth and a focus on long-term success. He focused on three main areas: the first quarter results, the performance of the business units and the outlook for the coming year.
HP delivered its third consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth of 2%, driven primarily by the Personal Systems and the Commercial business. Earnings per share were slightly above the mid-point of the forecast range. The profit margins for Print and Personal Systems were in line with expectations. Lores emphasized that HP is pursuing its strategy of future of work is consistently pursuing its strategy of leading the future of work.
HP is increasingly investing in the commercial sector and in new AI and software functions. One example of this is the planned acquisition of assets from Humanewhich will develop HP's AI-powered platform CosmOS and a highly skilled technical team. This acquisition is expected to accelerate the development of an intelligent ecosystem across all HP devices.
The Key Growth Areas have been realigned to focus on the future of work to reflect the focus on the future of work. The areas now include AI PCs and advanced compute solutions such as workstations and retail solutions. Gaming will remain an important business area, but will no longer be managed as a key growth area as it is not directly related to the future of work linked to the future of work.
At the CES were AI-supported innovations were presented, including new models of AI PCs. These are designed to enable experts to make decisions more quickly and collaborate effectively. In the field of gaming was OMEN AI beta was introduced, a software that automatically adjusts performance. In the industrial sector new HP PageWide presses which enable high printing speed and quality.
Sales in the Personal Systems increased by 5 % compared to the previous year, with the commercial business driving growth. HP gained market share in the PC Commercial Windows market market, but lost share in the consumer segment. The company plans to improve its performance in this segment over the course of the year. Global sales of PC Commercial increased by 10 %, partly due to the introduction of AI PCs and the Windows 11 refresh cycle.
In the Print HP recorded strong growth in unit sales and market share in the Home segmentespecially for Big Tanks. In the Office segment market shares were maintained overall and in strategic areas such as A4 Value and A3 even expanded.
HP has taken measures to respond to geopolitical developments and to increase the the resilience of production production. The supply chain has been diversified globally and production capacity has been expanded in several countries. By the end of fiscal 2025, more than 90% of HP products sold in North America will be manufactured outside of China. The company plans to structural savings of 1.9 billion US dollars by the end of the 2025 financial year.
Karen Parkhill, CFO of HP, expressed her satisfaction with the first quarter results and the progress made in achieving the financial targets for the year. Revenue increased in all regions. Gross margin decreased due to higher raw material costs. Non-GAAP operating expenses increased due to investments in strategic initiatives and employees. The non-GAAP diluted earnings per share amounted to 0.74 US dollars. HP increased the target for structural savings from USD 1.6 billion to USD 1.9 billion by the end of financial year 202512. Cash flow from operating activities amounted to 375 million US dollars, the free cash flow 70 million US dollars. For the full year 2025 non-GAAP diluted earnings per share are expected to be between 3.45 and 3.75 US dollars.
Analysts asked questions on various topics, including the impact of tariffsthe growth in the Personal Systems segment and the Windows 11 refresh wave.
HP reiterated that the known impact of the China tariffs have been taken into account in the forecast. The company plans to optimize the global supply chain to minimize the impact and relocate production sites.
HP expects the market for AI PCs will continue to grow and that the company will gain market share in this area. The Windows 11 refresh wave and the increasing spread of AI PCs are seen as important growth drivers. The company plans to expand its AI capabilities further expand its AI capabilities and invest in new technologies.
Some analysts expressed concern about the seasonality and the expected increase in profit in the second half of the year. However, HP reiterated its confidence in the forecast and pointed to an improved sales and cost situation. The company plans to continue to invest in strategic growth areas invest in strategic growth areas and efficiency increase efficiency.
In summary, HP has made a strong start to 2025 and is preparing for the future of work. future of work of work. The company is investing in AI and software innovationsdiversifying its supply chain and strives for structural savings to achieve long-term growth. Despite some challenges, such as rising raw material raw material costs and geopolitical uncertaintiesHP is confident of achieving its financial targets for the year.
The HP share ($HPQ (+0,02%)) is on a slight upswing after the computer giant acquired the developer company Humane for 116 million dollars. 🖥️ But what is behind the takeover?
Humane, a start-up founded by former Apple managers, presented the "AI Pin" in 2023 - an AI device that was intended to replace the smartphone. The idea was promising: with a camera, loudspeaker and laser projector, the idea was to do away with the smartphone in everyday life. Unfortunately, the concept was not well received and the "AI Pins" will only work until the end of the month.
What do you think of such innovative approaches? Are they the key to the future or just another failure? 🤔 The merger could give HP new impetus, but the question remains: is the market ready for such technologies? Share your thoughts!
In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.
Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.
__________
In this post:
__________
The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].
The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.
The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.
I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.
After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.
A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:
💰 Influence on inflation
On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:
The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.
Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.
🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned
As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:
According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]
But this is just the beginning:
From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:
🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation
Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.
Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:
"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"
The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:
"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"
🔄 Canada's reaction:
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".
The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:
However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.
Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:
But Trump remains firm:
"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."
🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy
(a) Rising prices in the USA
(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?
(c) Effects on the stock market
🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?
Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs
US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper
Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies
Energy companies with US production
Chip manufacturers with US production
😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs
Chip manufacturers with global supply chains
Car manufacturers with global suppliers
Companies with strong export business
US retailers with a high import share
🧠 Possible investment strategies
Favor defensive sectors:
Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":
Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?
With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.
❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?
Thanks for reading! 🤝
__________
Sources:
[4]
[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html
How to Invest in the rapidly growing ADHD market. $COLL (+1,37%) , a value stock with promising growth!
Collegium Pharmaceutical is a specialty pharmaceutical company that engages in the development and commercialization of medicines for pain management.
The company is not missing a beat. They are growing revenue quarter after quarter and I believe they are worth a second look. Let me give you some quick insights!
$COLL (+1,37%) has become part of Joel Greenblatt Magic Formula List in August 2023. Since then it has never graduated from the List even after the stock gained over 75%. This suggest that this stock is heavily undervalued. *You can find the updated Magic Formula list at the bottom of this post.
Recently, after going through an acquisition that impacted negatively the financials with one time items, the stock dropped significantly opening up new opportunities to buy in.
The new acquisition is very promising and will likely drive future growth. $COLL (+1,37%) bought Ironshore that had an established presence in neurology (ADHD) with Jornay PM. The ADHD market is projected to reach $30.6 billion by 2032.
Collegium reported strong Q3 2024 results, with 17% YoY revenue growth and EBIT margins improving to 35.2%, showcasing operational efficiency.
Still, $COLL (+1,37%) faces risks, including high financial debt, integration challenges for Jornay PM, and potential revenue concentration in pain management products.
At the same time, the management is executing very well on important areas:
I believe Collegium has compelling valuation metrics and good growth projections that indicate good upside potential.
In conclusion I think Collegium Pharmaceutical's earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better!
Considering all the above, I don't see many reasons against taking a position on this stock right now and holding it for one year as ruled by Joel Greenblatt.
Magic Formula's list (09/12/2024)
$CROX (-1,22%), is it a value bet?
$CROX (-1,22%) is a notorious stock for Magic Formula investors. Year after year it comes back into the list (you can find the latest Magic formula list after the picture down below).
Both Revenue and Cash flow keep on growing quarter after quarter, but the stock price keeps on following a wavy pattern. It runs up for a while trying to close the valuation gap and then suddenly it pulls back. Let's try to understand the current situation.
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$CROX (-1,22%) is currently trading at a notable low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, well below the averages of the Textile – Apparel industry and the broader Retail-Wholesale sector. With a forward 12-month P/E of 8x, the CROX stock reflects a discount to the industry average of 13.77x and the Consumer Discretionary sector’s average of 19.65x.
$CROX (-1,22%) Stock Looks Undervalued
This shows the CROX stock is undervalued relative to its industry peers, presenting an attractive opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector.
Crocs stock price has surged 13.5% year to date, significantly outpacing the industry’s decline of 12.8%. This performance can be attributed to the company’s strategic initiatives, including robust market expansion and product diversification efforts.
Factors Driving the Brand
Crocs is advancing its long-term strategy with key initiatives focused on sustainable growth. The company’s approach centers on three main pillars. These include elevating iconic products across brands to boost awareness and relevance, marketing, digital and retail expansion, and diversifying its product range to appeal to a broader consumer base.
Crocs has strategically expanded its product range, leveraging diversification to attract a broader consumer base. The Crocs brand’s remarkable growth in global awareness and desirability has been fueled by innovative collaborations and unique product offerings.
Current Pressures on CROX
Despite all the positives, Crocs' HEYDUDE brand underperformed, with revenues dropping 17.4% year over year in the third quarter. This decline was led by a 22.9% fall in wholesale revenues and a 9.3% drop in direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenues. Comparable DTC sales for the HEYDUDE brand also decreased by 22.2%.
Looking ahead, Crocs anticipates a relatively subdued consumer environment in the United States until the Black Friday/Cyber Monday holiday period. Per the company, the industry saw heightened promotional activities in China during the mid-season festival, reflecting a more conservative approach by China consumers. As a result, the company expects to see a greater pullback in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing.
Given the challenging macroeconomic conditions, Crocs has issued a cautious outlook for the fourth quarter and 2024, anticipating flat-to-slight revenue growth year over year, in constant currency. The Crocs brand is expected to grow 2% in the fourth quarter, while HEYDUDE revenues may decline 4-6%. International growth is projected to slow due to regulatory challenges in India, and North America faces consumer selectivity and wholesale timing pressures, though DTC revenues remain positive.
For 2024, enterprise revenues are projected to increase 3% year over year in constant currency, which is at the lower end of the previously guided 3-5% growth. Revenues for the Crocs brand are expected to grow 8%, while HEYDUDE brand revenues are anticipated to decline 14.5% due to weaker-than-expected sellouts in both wholesale and digital channels. Previously, management had estimated the Crocs brand’s revenues to grow 7-9% and HEYDUDE’s revenues to decrease 8-10%.
Investment Opinion on CROX
You may find Crocs stock attractive for its undervaluation compared to industry peers, with a lower price-to-earnings ratio. Given strategic initiatives, margin improvements, successful partnerships and a focus on sustainability, the stock presents a compelling investment opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the company’s growth trajectory.
However, CROX faces challenges, including soft revenue expectations, struggles with the HEYDUDE brand and headwinds in China, which could impact its near-term performance. These factors introduce some uncertainty, suggesting a more cautious approach to investing in Crocs at this stage.
Magic Formula's list (01/12/2024)
⬆️⬆️⬆️
- GOLDMAN raises the price target for DELL from USD 155 to USD 165. Buy. $DELL (-4,68%)
- GOLDMAN raises the price target for ANALOG DEVICES from USD 247 to USD 261. Buy. $ADI (+0,83%)
- GOLDMAN raises the price target for HP INC from USD 35 to USD 38. Neutral. $HPQ (+0,02%)
- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for VONOVIA from EUR 40.20 to EUR 42.30. Buy. $VNA (+0,06%)
- WARBURG RESEARCH upgrades STRATEC from Hold to Buy. Target price 40 EUR. $SBS4
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for DEUTSCHE BÖRSE from EUR 235 to EUR 237. Buy. $DB1 (-1,84%)
- MORGAN STANLEY raises the target price for DEUTSCHE TELEKOM from EUR 33 to EUR 38. Overweight. $DTE (-0,22%)
- GOLDMAN raises the price target for TRATON from EUR 31.80 to EUR 35.50. Neutral. $8TRA (+1,6%)
- GOLDMAN raises the price target for BRENNTAG from EUR 94 to EUR 95. Buy. $BNR (+0,66%)
- BERENBERG upgrades EQUINOR from Hold to Buy and raises target price from NOK 290 to NOK 325. $EQNR (+1,51%)
- JPMORGAN raises the target price for BEIERSDORF from EUR 150 to EUR 160. Overweight. $BEI (-0,01%)
- JPMORGAN upgrades HENKEL from Neutral to Overweight and raises target price from EUR 82 to EUR 100. $HEN (+0,2%)
- JPMORGAN upgrades BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO to Neutral. $BATS (-1,02%)
- JPMORGAN raises the price target for EON from EUR 15.50 to EUR 16. Overweight. $EOAN (+0,56%)
- JPMORGAN raises the target price for AUTO1 from EUR 12.10 to EUR 17.10. Overweight. $AG1 (+2,5%)
⬇️⬇️⬇️
- STIFEL lowers the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 207 to EUR 202. Buy. $SIE (-0,19%)
- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for HP INC from USD 41 to USD 40. Overweight. $HPQ (+0,02%)
- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for LANXESS from EUR 40 to EUR 37. Buy. $LXS (+0,75%)
- CITIGROUP lowers the price target for BASF from EUR 49 to EUR 46. Neutral. $BAS (+1,38%)
- RBC lowers the target price for COMMERZBANK from EUR 18 to EUR 17.25. Sector Perform. $CBK (-0,39%)
- RBC lowers the target price for ING from EUR 17.50 to EUR 16.75. Sector-Perform. $ING (+0%)
- RBC lowers the price target for BNP PARIBAS from EUR 79 to EUR 78. Outperform. $BNP (+0,28%)
- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for ELRINGKLINGER from EUR 6.70 to EUR 6. Neutral. $ELLRY (-9,84%)
- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for SYMRISE from EUR 130 to EUR 120. Overweight. $SY1 (+0,4%)
$HPQ (+0,02%) Q4 Earnings Highlights:
🔹 Revenue: $14.1B (Est. $13.99B) 🟢; UP +1.7% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.93 (Est. $0.93) 🟡
Q1 Guidance:
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.70-$0.76 (Est. $0.86) 🔴
Q4 Personal Systems:
🔹 Revenue: $9.6B; UP +2% YoY
🔹 Commercial: UP +5% YoY
🔹 Consumer: DOWN -4% YoY
Q4 Printing:
🔹 Revenue: $4.5B; UP +1% YoY
🔹 Consumer Printing Units: +10% YoY
Q4 Profitability:
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 8.5% (Est. 8.7%) 🔴
Shareholder Returns:
🔸 $1.2B returned via share repurchases and dividends.
🔸 Declared a 5% dividend increase.
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