According to $JPM (-6,91%) the neuen Zölle
$GM (-2,99%) could cost up to 14 billion US dollars, which would eat up almost the entire forecast global EBIT of 12.5-14.5 billion US dollars for 2025. For $F (-6,67%) is expected to have an impact of around USD 6 billion, which corresponds to approximately 75% of the estimated global EBIT of USD 7.75 billion for 2025.

$GM (-2,99%) imports around USD 56 billion worth of vehicles annually from Mexico and Canada, resulting in estimated tariffs of around USD 10 billion on finished vehicles and an additional USD 4 billion on parts, totaling USD 14 billion.

The tariffs could increase vehicle prices by $3k to $12k, potentially reducing US sales by 500k units.

$JPM (-6,91%) has lowered the price target for $GM (-2,99%) from 64 US dollars to 53 US dollars and for $F (-6,67%) from 13 US dollars to 11 US dollars

$BARC (-9,65%) warns that the tariffs could make car manufacturers "structurally unprofitable" if they remain unchanged.

Hello everyone,

I have just checked all my dividend payers for the current and next month. I have just realized that the dividends for $F (-6,67%) seem to have been reduced in March. I may be mistaken, but has anyone noticed anything about this?

The last report I received wasn't actually that bad!

Walt Disney surprises positively thanks to streaming business + Siemens Healthineers increases profit + Trump's tariffs could cost US industry billions

Walt Disney $DIS (-8,8%)surprises positively thanks to 'Moana 2' and streaming business

• Thanks to a strong streaming business and the success of the animated film "Moana 2", the US media company Walt Disney has exceeded market expectations at the start of its new financial year.
• Sales and profits were higher than expected, according to the figures presented by Disney in Burbank on Wednesday.
• In other business areas, however, including the TV business and the operation of the theme parks, things were less rosy.
• The stock market also criticized the fact that the forecast was not raised.
• The share price fell in pre-market US trading. In the first quarter to the end of December, Disney's turnover rose by 5 percent to 24.7 billion US dollars (23.9 billion euros) compared to the same period in the previous year.
• Adjusted operating profit rose by almost a third to 5.1 billion dollars.
• The profit attributable to shareholders climbed even more strongly to just under 2.6 billion dollars.
• The quarter was a strong start to the financial year, said Disney CEO Bob Iger according to the press release.
• He remains confident about the growth strategy.

Siemens Healthineers $SHL (-6,79%)American demand and restructuring

• The medical technology group Siemens Healthineers has made a surprisingly good start to the new fiscal year.
• In the three months to the end of December, total sales climbed by almost six percent to just under 5.5 billion euros, as the Siemens subsidiary announced in Erlangen on Thursday.
• Excluding currency and portfolio effects, the increase amounted to 5.7 percent.
• Business in the Americas and in the Asia, Pacific, Japan region grew in particular.
• In China, however, revenue fell by a mid-single-digit percentage due to the ongoing delays in the awarding of orders.
• Adjusted for special effects, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) increased by eleven percent to 822 million euros, mainly due to cost savings in connection with restructuring in the Diagnostics division.
• Sales and operating profit thus exceeded analysts' expectations.
• The bottom line for Siemens Healthineers shareholders was a profit of 474 million euros after 431 million in the previous year.
• Group CEO Bernd Montag maintained the targets for the fiscal year.

Trump's tariffs could cost the US industry billions

• Ford$F (-6,67%) -Ford CEO Jim Farley has warned the White House that long-term punitive tariffs of 25 percent on deliveries from Mexico and Canada would hit the US car industry hard.
• This would cost American manufacturers billions of dollars in profits and have serious consequences for jobs in the USA, Farley said after presenting quarterly figures.
• US car giants such as Ford and General Motors $GM (-2,99%)had expanded production in neighboring countries in recent years.
• US President Donald Trump recently imposed additional tariffs of 25 percent on goods from Mexico and Canada - but then quickly postponed them for 30 days.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Ascencio SCA EUR 4.30

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 12:30 Honeywell quarterly figures
• 13:00 Philip Morris | Conocophillips Quarterly figures
• 22:00 Expedia Group quarterly figures
• 22:05 Amazon | Verisign quarterly figures
• No time specified: Yum! Brands | Hershey | Air Products and Chemicals | Eli Lilly | Bristol Myers Squibb | Intercontinental Exchange | KKR & Co | Sonos | Warner Music quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 06:30 Societe Generale annual results
• 07:00 Aurubis | Siemens Healthineers | Rational | Arcelormittal | ING Groep | Volvo Car Annual results
• 07:30 Hannover Re Renewals 2025 | Siemens Healthineers PK
• 08:00 Astrazeneca | A.P. Moeller-Maersk Annual Results
• 08:30 Siemens Healthineers Analyst Conference
• 09:00 Hannover Re PK
• 10:00 Qiagen annual results press conference
• 12:00 Linde quarterly figures
• 15:00 Kion Pre-Close-Call | Linde PK
• 16:00 Qiagen Analyst Conference
• 17:45 Vinci annual results
• 18:00 LOreal annual results

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: New orders December seasonally adjusted FORECAST: +2.0% yoy previous: -5.4% yoy
• 11:00 EU: December Eurozone Retail Sales PROGNOSE: -0.1% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy
• 13:00 UK: BoE, outcome and minutes of the Monetary Policy Council meeting and Monetary Policy Report Bank Rate FORECAST: 4.50% previously: 4.75%
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 214,000 previously: 207,000
• 14:30 US: Productivity ex Agriculture (1st release) 4Q annualized PROGNOSE: +1.4% yoy Q3: +2.2% yoy Unit labor costs PROGNOSE: +3.3% yoy Q3: +0.8% yoy
• 20:30 US: Fed Governor Waller, speech at the Atlantic Council at 'Navigating the Future of Payments' event

In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.

Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

__________

In this post:

• Influence on inflation
• New tariffs in force
• Reaction of the countries
• Consequences for the global economy
• Winners & losers
• Investment opportunities

__________

The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].

The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.

The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.

I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.

After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.

A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:

💰 Influence on inflation

On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:

The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.

Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.

🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned

As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]

But this is just the beginning:

From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:

• computer chips
• pharmaceuticals
• Steel, aluminum and copper
• Oil and gas imports (but only from February 18 with reduced 10% tariffs so as not to burden US petrol prices immediately).

🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation

Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.

Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:

"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"

The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:

"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"

🔄 Canada's reaction:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".

The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:

• The new tariffs could increase the cost of living of an average US household by 800 dollars per year.
• The oil and gas tariffs could increase the price of petrol in the USA by up to 20 cents per liter.

But Trump remains firm:

"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."

🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy

(a) Rising prices in the USA

• Technology & electronicsHigher chip prices are hitting companies such as Apple $AAPL (-6,25%) , Dell $DELL and HP $HPQ (-14,31%) as many of their components come from China.

• Healthcare costs: Pharmaceutical companies such as CVS Health $CVS (-2,64%) and Walgreens Boots Alliance $WBA (+0%) are facing higher purchasing costs.

• Construction & InfrastructureHigher steel prices are weighing on companies such as Lennar $LEN (-7,94%) D.R. Horton $DHI (-4,46%) and Caterpillar $CAT (-7,99%) .

(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?

• China could impose tariffs on US products, which could affect e.g. Archer Daniels Midland $ADM (-2,51%) Boeing $BA (-10,13%) and Qualcomm $QCOM (-8,69%) would be affected.

• The EU could make US imports more expensive, which would affect Tesla $TSLA (-3,59%) , Ford $F (-6,67%) and General Motors $GM (-2,99%) could be harmed.

(c) Effects on the stock market

• Volatility is increasing as there is uncertainty about the consequences for various industries.

• Particularly affected: Technology and automotive stocks with global supply chains.

🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?

Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs

US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper

• Nucor $NUE (-9,99%) , U.S. Steel $X (-7,08%) and Freeport-McMoRan $FCX (-12,35%) could benefit as foreign competition becomes more expensive as a result of the tariffs.

Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies

• Pfizer $PFE (-2,63%) Moderna $MRNA (-6,62%) and Eli Lilly $LLY (-3,56%) could gain market share.

Energy companies with US production

• ExxonMobil $XOM (+0%) , Chevron$CVX (-6,89%) and Expand Energy $CHK (+0%) could benefit from rising prices for US oil and gas.

Chip manufacturers with US production

• Intel $INTC (+2,5%) and Texas Instruments$TXN (-8,2%) have US factories and could gain market share.

😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs

Chip manufacturers with global supply chains

• Apple $AAPL (-6,25%) NVIDIA $NVDA (-6,05%) , AMD $AMD (-7,86%) are dependent on Asian imports and could see higher production costs.

Car manufacturers with global suppliers

• Tesla $TSLA (-3,59%) , Ford $F (-6,67%) , General Motors $GM (-2,99%) are under pressure because components from Mexico and Canada could become more expensive.

Companies with strong export business

• Boeing $BA (-10,13%) and Caterpillar $CAT (-7,99%) suffer from possible retaliatory tariffs.

US retailers with a high import share

• Walmart $WMT (-1,54%) , Target $TGT (-8,31%) and Nike $NKE (-9,93%) could have to pass on rising prices to customers.

🧠 Possible investment strategies

Favor defensive sectors:

• Utilities (e.g. NextEra Energy $NEE (+0,71%) Duke Energy $DUK (+1,43%) ) and healthcare companies (e.g. UnitedHealth $UNH (+0,65%) , Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+1,02%) ) remain more stable.

Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":

• Intel $INTC (+2,5%) , Eli Lilly $LLY (-3,56%) , Nucor $NUE (-9,99%) could benefit in the long term.

Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?

With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.

❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?

Thanks for reading! 🤝

__________

Sources:

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-finance-chartbook-44-charts-that-tell-the-story-of-markets-and-the-economy-to-start-2025-105856766.html

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-charts-show-why-markets-are-skittish-about-trumps-tariff-policy-144318249.html

[3] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/usa-unter-trump/trumps-verhaengt-zoelle-gegen-kanada-mexiko-und-china-110269990.html?

[4]

https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2025-01/64440108-trump-usa-werden-ab-mitte-februar-zoelle-auf-computerchips-stahl-sowie-oel-und-gasimporte-erheben-015.htm

[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html

Sogar der Ford-Chef will nicht mehr aussteigen.

(link leads to Giga.de)

$1810 (+5,18%)
$RACE (-2,98%)
$F (-6,67%)

Some time ago, Xiaomi launched the SU7, a really powerful electric car at an attractive price.

Visually, it looks very similar to the Porsche Taycan.

Now a second electric car from Xiaomi has been spotted - and this one has the shape of the Ferrari Purosangue.

It is clearly an e-SUV that Xiaomi is building. The vehicle is significantly higher than the SU7, has a long hood and offers plenty of space. The exterior shape is very reminiscent of the Ferrari Purosangue, which you can see in the picture below.

For Ferrari, an affordable electric car with this design could become a real problem for China. Of course, there will always be people who will buy a Ferrari because it is also a status symbol. But if there are hundreds of thousands of similar-looking Xiaomi e-cars driving around that cost a tenth of the price, then many will simply go for a Xiaomi e-car.

Xiaomi SU7 is not building a new car but is using the basis of its first model.

It will simply be an SUV model of the SU7.

The power SUV will not have to hide when it comes to performance. Up to 495 kW (674 PS) and 838 Nm of torque with the dual-engine conversion are expected at a price of around 40,000 euros.

Unfortunately, according to current information, Xiaomi's e-cars will not be coming to Germany. They would probably shake up the market here just as they have in China and leave the competition no chance.

Analyst updates, 16.12.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

• JEFFERIES raises the price target for AMAZON from USD 235 to USD 275. Buy. $AMZN (-6,32%)
• CITIGROUP raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 475 to EUR 522. Neutral. $MUV2 (+0,75%)
• BERENBERG raises the price target for RHEINMETALL from EUR 655 to EUR 750. Buy. $RHM (+2,85%)
• WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for PORSCHE SE from EUR 36 to EUR 37. Hold. $PAH3 (-1,68%)
• WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for HENSOLDT from EUR 40 to EUR 42. Buy. $HAG (+1,97%)
• JEFFERIES raises the target price for SHELL from GBP 31 to GBP 32. Buy. $SHEL (+0%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

• BERNSTEIN lowers the price target for PORSCHE SE from EUR 46 to EUR 42. Market Perform. $PAH3 (-1,68%)
• HSBC downgrades SAP to Hold. Target price EUR 260. $SAP (-2,38%)
• LOOP CAPITAL downgrades NETFLIX to Hold. Target price 950 USD. $NFLX (-1,34%)
• EXANE BNP lowers the price target for MERCEDES-BENZ from EUR 57 to EUR 54. Underperform. $MBG (-2,59%)
• JEFFERIES downgrades FORD from Hold to Underperform and lowers target price from USD 12 to USD 9. $F (-6,67%)
• CITIGROUP lowers the price target for THYSSENKRUPP from EUR 5.80 to EUR 5.50. Buy. $TKA (-1,73%)
• STIFEL lowers the price target for AIXTRON from EUR 20 to EUR 18. Hold. $AIXA (+0%)
• PARETO downgrades TRATON to Hold. Target price EUR 32.50. $8TRA (-2,89%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the target price for KINGFISHER from GBP 3.50 to GBP 3.40. Buy. $KGF (+2,67%)
• METZLER lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from EUR 104 to EUR 90. Buy. $AFX (-4,93%)
• BERENBERG lowers the price target for SCHOTT PHARMA from EUR 32 to EUR 28. Hold. $1SXP (-3,84%)
• CITIGROUP downgrades 1&1 to Neutral. Target price EUR 15. $1U1 (-0,2%)

29.10.2024

Electric cars continue to bring Ford high losses + VARTA annual report further delayed + Ceconomy's day-to-day business slightly better than expected + SAP wants to significantly expand its partner network

Ford $F (-6,67%) continues to write deep red figures in the electric car business. In the last quarter, the division posted an operating loss of a good 1.2 billion dollars. In contrast, Ford posted earnings before interest and taxes of 1.6 billion dollars for cars with combustion engines and a further 1.8 billion dollars for commercial vehicles. CFO John Lawler pointed out on Monday after the close of the US stock exchange that Ford would reduce the costs of its electric car division by one billion dollars this year. And when developing new electric models, the company is making sure that expenditure is on a par with the cheapest competitors. It is a tough market in which costs play a decisive role, he said on CNBC. Ford shares fell by more than five percent in after-hours trading. The Group is now only expecting adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of ten billion dollars for this year - after a range of ten to twelve billion had previously been given.

The Varta $VAR1 -annual report for 2023 continues to be delayed. The battery manufacturer, which is struggling to survive and is currently undergoing pre-insolvency restructuring proceedings, is now targeting the end of January 2025 as the publication date. The outstanding quarterly reports for 2024 are also to be presented then. This can be seen in the updated financial calendar on the Swabian company's investor relations website. A company spokesperson justifies the new delay with the financial restructuring in accordance with the German Corporate Stabilization and Restructuring Act (StaRUG). An auditor's certificate and thus a publication are only possible after the completion of this reorganization process. Varta had previously announced the publication for October 30. Information on the first quarter of 2024 should follow in November. (Börsen-Zeitung)

The MediaMarkt and Saturn parent company Ceconomy $CEC (-2,28%) earned slightly more than expected in the past financial year. Based on preliminary figures, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) adjusted for special effects were in the upper half of the range of 290 to 310 million euros, the company, which is listed in the second-tier stock index SDax, announced in Düsseldorf on Tuesday. Excluding exchange rate fluctuations and portfolio effects, turnover in the 2023/2024 financial year (as at the end of September) climbed by 5.3 percent to around 22.4 billion euros. On average, analysts had expected slightly less for both key figures. Group CEO Karsten Wildberger is entering the first quarter of the new year "with confidence". In the medium term, he also sees his company on course to achieve its growth targets for the 2025/2026 financial year. According to previous statements, Ceconomy aims to earn more than 500 million euros in day-to-day business (ber EBIT) by then and at the same time grow slightly faster than the market.

The software group SAP $SAP (-2,38%) wants to significantly expand its partner network. Business in the cloud brings with it a different sales approach and more new customers, "the only way to reach everyone is with partners," says the responsible "Chief Partner Officer" Karl Fahrbach to the FAZ. The business will also become more financially lucrative for partners. In a "revenue share model", they receive a larger share of the cake. Among other things, they would receive remuneration if customers extend their cloud contracts, and they could also share in revenues through innovations and industry-specific extensions to the largely standardized cloud software. (FAZ)

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

ASML Holding USD 1.66

Alcoa 0.10 USD

Levi Strauss & Registered (A) USD 0.13

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

11:45 Pfizer quarterly figures

12:00 EU: ECB, allotment of a 3-month long-term tender

12:00 McDonald's Corp, 3Q results

12:15 Paypal Holdings Inc, 3Q results

21:05 Alphabet | Visa | Mondelez | Stryker quarterly figures

21:15 AMD quarterly figures

Untimed: First Solar | JetBlue | Snap Inc | Stanley Black & Decker | Electronic Arts | Corning Quarterly Results

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

05:00 HSBC quarterly figures

07:00 Deutsche Lufthansa | Hellofresh | Novartis | OMV | Covestro | Banco Santander quarterly figures | Ceconomy annual sales

07:30 Adidas | Drägerwerk quarterly figures

08:00 BP quarterly figures

08:30 Hellofresh Earnings-Call | Covestro Interview with CEO

10:00 Deutsche Lufthansa Analyst Conference

11:30 OMV Analyst Conference

13:00 Drägerwerk Investor Conference

14:00 Covestro Analyst Conference

15:00 Adidas Analyst Conference

18:00 ASM International quarterly figures

18:05 Saint-Gobain Turnover 9M

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: GfK consumer climate indicator October FORECAST: -20.5 points previously: -21.2 points
• 15:00 US: Consumer Confidence Index October FORECAST: 99.2 previously: 98.7
• 15:00 US: Number of job openings, quits and layoffs (Jolts) September

Earnings next week 🚀

$AMZN (-6,32%)

$AMD (-7,86%)

$SOFI (-10,97%)

$MSFT (-2,62%)

$AAPL (-6,25%)

$META (-7,03%)

$GOOGL (-3,55%)

$INTC (+2,5%)

$PYPL (-7,18%)

$LLY (-3,56%)

$F (-6,67%)

$SNAP (-9,27%)

$CMG (-3,7%)

$COIN (-4,11%)

$UBER (-5,47%)

$BP. (-6,19%)

$MCD (+0,75%)

$HOOD (-7,26%)

$PFE (-2,63%)

$V (-2,64%)

$NOVA (-3,13%)

$ETSY (-1,63%)

$ON (+0%)

$FUBO

$PTON (-14,04%)

$TMDX (-2,4%)

$FSLR (+4,88%)

$RIOT (-6,72%)

$ROKU (-13,21%)

$RCL

$CVNA (-17,33%)

$CVX (-6,89%)

$CAT (-7,99%)

$HUM (-1,92%)

$CDNS (-4,11%)

$SBUX (-10,63%)

$WM (-0,91%)

$NXT

$THC

$JBLU (-15,21%)

$CROX (+0%)

$XOM (+0%)

$MRK (-2,01%)

$RDDT (-0,02%)

$PHIA (-5,12%)

$VFC (-26,66%)

$RIG

$COP (-10,35%)

$EPD

$RMBS (-10,14%)