After careful consideration and despite a painful -65% price performance, I decided to sell Enphase and took out the last €500. It was once the star of my portfolio in 2021 and 22, but has fallen sharply since then. For me, it is currently valued like a growth company, only without growth in the figures for three years. And I doubt that anything will change under Trump in a trade war. If Trump then overturns the Inflation Reduction Act, I think Enphase will be on fire. The last earnings call, which I listened to in part and from which I was unable to draw any inspiration at all, then gave me the rest. So, finish the chapter, wipe my mouth and move on.

Hello my investors,

Today I would like to share my analysis of $ENPH (+1,33%) with you. I would be delighted to hear your opinions on the share. The body text is only my summary of the analysis. You can download the full analysis as a Word file via the following link: https://www.mediafire.com/file/qzne5338hn7z7qz/Analyse_Enphase_Energy.docx/file

Conclusion:

The chart analysis shows us that we are already in a long-term downtrend and that there may now be a possible trend reversal. The OB on the monthly chart represents a strong support zone, which gives us hope for an upward trend. However, apart from this bullish structure, there are only a few weak bullish signals (RSI, MACD). However, a break of structure on the weekly chart could confirm a trend reversal, which is why the chart should be kept an eye on.

The fundamental analysis shows that Enphase Energy has already achieved a huge leap in growth in the past, which only slowed down in 2023 and turned into a slump in sales and profits in 2024. This was triggered by supply chain bottlenecks for semiconductors and interest rate hikes in the US. The latest quarterly figures (Q4 2024) were convincing again with a doubling of profits compared to the previous year and therefore point to a more positive future. Furthermore, the company can score with very high net profit margins compared to the industry as a whole. Enphase Energy's debt is high, but is kept in check by a high level of cash, which is why net debt is actually negative (cash > debt). The figures for the future again promise strong growth and good opportunities for expansion. In the short term, Trump's climate policy could lead to major difficulties for the company. The planned removal of subsidies for solar energy and subsidies for fossil fuels could drastically reduce demand for PV systems in the USA and thus limit the company's sales.

Enphase Energy's valuation is currently very high and even the forward P/E ratio for the coming years is above the industry average. However, in view of the strong growth figures and margins, a forward P/E ratio of 21x for 2026 is acceptable. The historical multiples are all at approximately 3-year lows and do not provide any long-term and meaningful trend reversal signals.

From the perspective of seasonal trends, there are many opportunities during the year. Mid-February to early March tends to be a bullish phase for Enphase Energy, which promises high returns. This part of the analysis is only of minor importance for long-term investments.

$NKE (+1,6%) I'll wait until 52 - maybe I'll miss it, but it's okay

$ENPH (+1,33%) from now until 47 on a bullish impulse

$VNA (+1,44%) - already have a position but add here at Retraces.

$BABA (-0,09%) - I already have a position, but I'll add at Retraces.

$PYPL (+0,75%) - DCA from now on , 72, 63, 54

The loss at $ENPH (+1,33%) hurts, but better an end with horror than horror without end!

The solar industry will have a tough time for a while yet, especially with the new US energy policy. I have therefore now reduced my positions in $AMZN (+0,1%) and $ABBV (+1,05%) have been expanded.

23.10.2024

Arm revokes Qualcomm's architecture license + Exciting figures today + McDonald's falls after E. coli cases in the USA + Solar shares in free fall: Enphase Energy disappoints + Deutsche Bank's profits jump thanks to Postbank settlement

The legal dispute that has been simmering for two years between Arm $ARM (+1,68%) and Qualcomm $QCOM (-0,23%) has been escalated to a new level with the recent withdrawal of the architecture license by Arm. In essence, it is about the takeover of Nuvia and the implementation at Qualcomm derived from its CPU design as the Snapdragon X Elite.

https://www.computerbase.de/news/wirtschaft/rechtsstreit-nach-nuvia-uebernahme-arm-entzieht-qualcomm-die-architekturlizenz.90052/

The share price of McDonald's $MCD (+1,05%) plummeted after the chain's restaurants in several US states were linked to an outbreak of E. coli bacteria. According to the CDC, one elderly person died and ten were hospitalized. A total of 49 cases have been reported in ten states, most of them in Colorado and Nebraska. The share price of the world's largest fast food chain fell by almost ten percent at times in early after-hours trading in the US on Tuesday. However, the stock was recently able to recover somewhat from this heavy loss and ended after-hours trading down six percent at around 296 dollars. However, McDonald's shares had also risen sharply in recent weeks, with the share price hitting another record high of almost 318 dollars on Monday. According to McDonald's, the trigger is suspected to be chopped onions, which are only used in the Quarter Pounder, the American equivalent of the Hamburger Royal. They came from a supplier that supplies three distribution centers. In five states and parts of seven others, the Quarter Pounder is now being temporarily withdrawn from supply.

Enphase Energy Inc. $ENPH (+1,33%) generated net sales of USD 380.873 million in the third quarter of 2024 (previous quarter: USD 303.458 million), a decline of 30.9% compared to the previous year. The Californian solar inverter provider's negative revenue growth thus slowed further. In the previous quarter, this was still down 57.3% on the previous year (Q1 2024: down 63.7%, Q4 2023: down 58.2%, Q3: up 13.2%, Q2: up 34.1%, Q1: up 64%). Enphase Energy's gross margin in the same period was around 46.8% (previous quarter: 45.2%, previous year: 47.5%). The solar technology company's operating result fell to plus USD 49.788 million in the reporting period (previous quarter: USD 1.799 million, previous year: USD 117.989 million). This left the US company with a net result of USD 45.762 million (previous year: USD 113.953 million) or (diluted) earnings per share (US GAAP) of USD 0.33 (previous year: USD 0.80).

The back and forth in the legal dispute over Postbank $DPB-takeover has had a negative impact on Deutsche Bank $DBK (-1,13%) Deutsche Bank's profits in the third quarter. Because the DAX-listed group was able to partially release a provision from the second quarter, shareholders received almost 1.5 billion euros on the bottom line. This was 42 percent more than a year earlier and more than analysts had expected on average. CEO Christian Sewing also considered buying back more shares when presenting the interim results on Wednesday. He expressed confidence that he would be able to distribute more capital to shareholders than originally planned. In the summer, Deutsche Bank still had worse news in store. Due to a provision of 1.3 billion euros in the Postbank legal dispute, it had even slipped into the red. However, following an agreement with the majority of the plaintiffs from among the former Postbank shareholders, it has now been able to release 440 million euros of this. The Management Board also reported positive developments in day-to-day business. CFO James von Moltke confirmed the target of generating income of 30 billion euros this year. The management also believes the bank is on track with its targets for 2025. Above all, the return on tangible equity should then reach more than 10 percent. In the third quarter, it was even slightly above this mark at 10.2 percent. Without the reversal of the provision, however, it would only have amounted to 7.6%.

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Lowe's Companies 1.15 US

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

12:30 AT&T | GE Vernova quarterly figures

12:55 Coca-Cola quarterly figures

13:30 Boeing | General Dynamics quarterly figures

22:05 Tesla | Align Technology | Whirlpool quarterly figures

22:08 IBM quarterly figures

22:30 T-Mobile US quarterly figures

Untimed: Boeing union "International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Union", vote on offer regarding wage increase

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Deutsche Bank | DWS | Amadeus Fire | Akzo Nobel | Kühne & Nagel | Volvo Car quarterly figures | Roche 3Q sales

07:20 Air Liquide sales 3Q

07:30 Atoss Software 9 months results

08:00 Deutsche Bank PK | Lloyds Banking Quarterly Figures | Reckitt Benckiser | Heineken Trading Update 3Q

09:30 Iberdrola 9 months results

10:00 Flatexdegiro analyst conference on the quarterly figures

11:00 Deutsche Bank Analyst Conference

14:00 Deutsche Börse Analyst and Investor Conference on the quarterly figures

17:40 Michelin | Kering Sales 9 months

17:50 Carrefour 3Q sales

Untimed: Givaudan end of investor day (since 22.10.)

Economic data

08:00 DE: Leading indicator foreign trade on exports to non-EU countries | Turnover in the service sector

14:00 DE: Deutsche Börse analyst and investor conference on the quarterly figures

15:00 US: Fed Governor Bowman, speech at the Philadelphia Fed's Annual Fintech Conference | IMF Fiscal Monitor

16:00 EU: Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (flash estimate) October FORECAST: -12.5 previous: -12.9

16:00 US: Existing Home Sales September FORECAST: -0.5% yoy previous: -2.5% yoy

16:30 US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from the Energy Information Administration (EIA)

20:00 US: Fed, Beige Book

Enphase Energy before earnings. $ENPH (+1,33%)

Hello my dears,

Next week there will be figures for Enphase, perhaps an opportunity to start the 🚀 from the bottom upwards.

After a not so good year, I have picked out the estimates for you.

Since the beginning of the year, Vistra $VST (+2,65%) has become one of the top performers thanks to AI and data centers.

Do you see similar potential for Enphase?

According to estimates, it almost looks like it.

Earnings growth until 2026 amounts to 30%, which will reduce the P/E ratio to 19.93 next year

According to the share finder, Enphase is undervalued

EbiT margin: 2024: 21.30%

2025: 30,24%

2026: 34,25%

EbiT: 2024: 303.69 million

2025: 619.40 million

2026: 821.70 million

Turnover: 2024: 1.43 billion

2025: 2.05 billion

2026: 2.40 billion

Earnings per share: 2024: 2.51

2025: 4,60

2026: 5,51

Free cash flow: 2024: 383.76 million

2025: 549.15 million

2026: 679.85 million

Book value per share: 2024: 7.68

2025: 11,09

2026: 16,92

Market capitalization 11.42 billion