In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.

Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

__________

In this post:

• Influence on inflation
• New tariffs in force
• Reaction of the countries
• Consequences for the global economy
• Winners & losers
• Investment opportunities

__________

The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].

The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.

The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.

I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.

After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.

A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:

💰 Influence on inflation

On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:

The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.

Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.

🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned

As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]

But this is just the beginning:

From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:

• computer chips
• pharmaceuticals
• Steel, aluminum and copper
• Oil and gas imports (but only from February 18 with reduced 10% tariffs so as not to burden US petrol prices immediately).

🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation

Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.

Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:

"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"

The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:

"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"

🔄 Canada's reaction:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".

The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:

• The new tariffs could increase the cost of living of an average US household by 800 dollars per year.
• The oil and gas tariffs could increase the price of petrol in the USA by up to 20 cents per liter.

But Trump remains firm:

"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."

🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy

(a) Rising prices in the USA

• Technology & electronicsHigher chip prices are hitting companies such as Apple $AAPL (+0,26%) , Dell $DELL and HP $HPQ (-0,12%) as many of their components come from China.

• Healthcare costs: Pharmaceutical companies such as CVS Health $CVS (-2,18%) and Walgreens Boots Alliance $WBA (-3,09%) are facing higher purchasing costs.

• Construction & InfrastructureHigher steel prices are weighing on companies such as Lennar $LEN (-1,45%) D.R. Horton $DHI (-1,49%) and Caterpillar $CAT (-2,26%) .

(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?

• China could impose tariffs on US products, which could affect e.g. Archer Daniels Midland $ADM (+4,11%) Boeing $BA (-1,57%) and Qualcomm $QCOM (-4,11%) would be affected.

• The EU could make US imports more expensive, which would affect Tesla $TSLA (-4,32%) , Ford $F (-0,67%) and General Motors $GM (-2,75%) could be harmed.

(c) Effects on the stock market

• Volatility is increasing as there is uncertainty about the consequences for various industries.

• Particularly affected: Technology and automotive stocks with global supply chains.

🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?

Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs

US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper

• Nucor $NUE (-2,98%) , U.S. Steel $X (-2,22%) and Freeport-McMoRan $FCX (-4,12%) could benefit as foreign competition becomes more expensive as a result of the tariffs.

Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies

• Pfizer $PFE (+1,91%) Moderna $MRNA (+6,04%) and Eli Lilly $LLY (+0,32%) could gain market share.

Energy companies with US production

• ExxonMobil $XOM (-0,73%) , Chevron$CVX (-0,58%) and Expand Energy $CHK (-1,7%) could benefit from rising prices for US oil and gas.

Chip manufacturers with US production

• Intel $INTC (-4,07%) and Texas Instruments$TXN (-0,26%) have US factories and could gain market share.

😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs

Chip manufacturers with global supply chains

• Apple $AAPL (+0,26%) NVIDIA $NVDA (-3,63%) , AMD $AMD (-2,29%) are dependent on Asian imports and could see higher production costs.

Car manufacturers with global suppliers

• Tesla $TSLA (-4,32%) , Ford $F (-0,67%) , General Motors $GM (-2,75%) are under pressure because components from Mexico and Canada could become more expensive.

Companies with strong export business

• Boeing $BA (-1,57%) and Caterpillar $CAT (-2,26%) suffer from possible retaliatory tariffs.

US retailers with a high import share

• Walmart $WMT (-2,31%) , Target $TGT (-2,56%) and Nike $NKE (-0,48%) could have to pass on rising prices to customers.

🧠 Possible investment strategies

Favor defensive sectors:

• Utilities (e.g. NextEra Energy $NEE (+2,37%) Duke Energy $DUK (+2,62%) ) and healthcare companies (e.g. UnitedHealth $UNH (-6,94%) , Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+2,12%) ) remain more stable.

Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":

• Intel $INTC (-4,07%) , Eli Lilly $LLY (+0,32%) , Nucor $NUE (-2,98%) could benefit in the long term.

Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?

With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.

❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?

Thanks for reading! 🤝

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Sources:

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-finance-chartbook-44-charts-that-tell-the-story-of-markets-and-the-economy-to-start-2025-105856766.html

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-charts-show-why-markets-are-skittish-about-trumps-tariff-policy-144318249.html

[3] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/usa-unter-trump/trumps-verhaengt-zoelle-gegen-kanada-mexiko-und-china-110269990.html?

[4]

https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2025-01/64440108-trump-usa-werden-ab-mitte-februar-zoelle-auf-computerchips-stahl-sowie-oel-und-gasimporte-erheben-015.htm

[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html

Semiconductor stocks and electricity shares are falling today because of the Deepseek panic. This panic is probably exaggerated. We'll talk about it in tonight's podcast. So be sure to subscribe to the podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/3SHlvxmpYWkpiWnykajNPa

Semiconductors:

-12% Broadcom $AVGO (-3,16%)

-12% TSMC $2330
$TSM (-0,58%)

-11% Nvidia $NVDA (-3,63%)

-11% BE Semiconductor $SMH (-2,93%)

-11% ARM Holdings $ARM (-3,76%)

-11% ASML $ASML (-0,72%)

-9% Dell $DELL
$DELL (-1,59%)

-9% Micron $MU (-4%)

-6% AMD $AMD (-2,29%)

-5% KLA $KLAC (-2,61%)

Power stocks:

-20% Siemens Energy $ENR (-4,27%)

-15% Bloom Energy $BE (-6,5%)

-14% GE Vernova $GEV (-8,21%)

-13% Vistra $VST (-7,68%)

-11% Schneider Electric $SCHNEIDER

#deepseek
#openai
#ai
#ki
#china
#podcast
#spotify
$SPOT (-3,66%)
#semiconductor
#halbleiter

$AMD (-2,29%)

UNVEILS NEXT GENERATION KI PROCESSORS AT CES

AMD unveils the Ryzen AI Max, Ryzen AI 300 and Ryzen 200 series processors, bringing powerful AI capabilities to next-generation PCs.

First collaboration with $DELL announced for business PCs; chips to debut in updated PC lines from Asus, Lenovo and Dell...

The biggest $AMD (-2,29%) announcement of the day is $DELL with $AMD (-2,29%) making it big in commercial notebooks. Dell has never been able to sell large volumes of non-Intel commercial PCs in the past and $AMD (-2,29%) been unwilling to invest in enterprise PC GTM, but this time it could work.

For $AMD (-2,29%) it's important to invest more in the commercial channel, get more sales people in the enterprise space, create more enterprise content and have an answer to $INTC (-4,07%) vPro.

Hindenburg Research has several specific & intended accounting
errors at Super Micro Computer $SMCI

found. Hindenburg Research is a short seller fund, that investigatively focuses on companies that actively defraud or have violated laws.

I would like to explain in this post what the allegations are.

• Super Micro has already received revenue before the delivery of goods and for partial deliveries recognized. This practice is contrary to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) and can lead to an artificial inflation of revenue numbers.

• There are hidden transactions with the companies Ablecom and Compuwarethat are linked to the CEO of Super Micro and his brothers and his brothers. These connections were not properly disclosed, which could have transparency and integrity of the company's financial reporting, Hindenburg said.

• After settling previous SEC violations, Super Micro has reinstated executives involved in prior accounting scandals accounting scandals. This is a disregard for compliance.

• There are allegations that Super Micro circumvented internal controls in order to sales and profit margins to inflate sales and profit margins.

In addition to these accusations, Super Micro also has other problems which I will explain here.

• Loss of Tesla $TSLA as an exclusive customer was a major backlash. Tesla was an important customer and has reduced its dependence on Super Micro and instead signed significant contracts with Dell
  $DELL instead, according to reports from May
  2024 and statements by Elon Musk emerged.

• Super Micro admits that large tech companies, such as Amazon and Digital Ocean, are hardly represented anymore. Amazon has terminated the collaboration due to delivery problems terminated. Digital Ocean has also turned its back on Super Micro and joined Dell switched to Dell.

What's more, the quality of some products is poor.

• Genesis Cloud is described on the Super Micro website as a "success story" but both current and former employees report disastrous technical experiences.

• GMI Clouda start-up provider in Asia and the USAreported an error rate of 17,5% for its orders of 256
  Super Micro servers and after less than a year switched to HP $HPQ (-0,12%) .

• An employee of NexGen Clouda Nvidia
  $NVDA (-3,63%) partner, reported that up to 50% of the Super Micro orders received from Super Micro firmware problems had firmware problems.

• Several former employees and channel partners have confirmed that the poor after sales service of Super Micro is preventing the company from retaining customers. One former salesperson described service as the company's Achilles heel.

Adobe is behaving very volatile, I have the feeling that it really wants to go up. Do you think the share price will develop in a similar percentage after the end of the quarter as Dell?

$ADBE (-2,14%)
$DELL

#boersengehandelteralltag

Hello stockbrokers,

today I show you my stock exchange traded everyday life, although I was not nominated xD.

In the morning I get up and have a pleasant breakfast. After that I get ready in the bathroom with the products of $PG (+2,23%) & $null

After that I go to school with my bike or with a $BMW (-0,12%) to school, since I am just finishing my high school diploma. At school I work with the products of $AAPL (+0,26%) among others.

At five o'clock I start to work, here I sit down at my computer with components from $INTC (-4,07%) & $NVDA (-3,63%) as well as with monitors from $DELL and a keyboard from $1337 and a mouse from $LOGN (+0,61%)

Here I mainly use the software from $MSFT (-1,57%) & $GOOGL (-2,28%) back.

Lastly, I do sports, with products from a French group.

#aktie
#aktien
#investieren
#dividende
#dividenden
#finanzen
#geld

#boersengehandelteralltag

Exchange traded daily sales

A few have noticed it I have reoriented myself and changed my job. @Koenigmidas therefore it took a little while.

The daily km scrubbing in the field service (80tsdkm/year) belongs for the time being to the past and that is also good so.

So after 2.5 months of vacation new everyday life:

6 o'clock

Wake up the kids (in my case the kids wake me up 😂)

Make breakfast, prepare snack,

Off to kindergarten and off we go.

With the small but fine

Suzuki $MARUTI 🚗

Or the bike 🚴or on foot 👟( am already a bit older and swear by

$ADS (-0,81%) )

it goes on us office.

Arrived at the desk

$DELL boot up, operating system

$MSFT (-1,57%) Microsoft starts.

Autostart loads with all required Office programs from Microsoft as well as ERP from the cloud. Sorry no IT nerd does not ask me what all this is in the background😅 it works.

After that, first time tour of the "fresh warehouse" and see what delicious fruits and vegetables are now in our warehouse.

So far except

$DOLE (+0,5%) Bananas

Still nothing stock discovered.

On the way back through the freezer and through the dry warehouse, however, there meets the how is how of the food industry.

Feels all major corporations are represented here and fill the high shelf warehouse with really damn tasty products and ingredients

$NSRGY (+4,01%) Nestlé

$UL (+1,42%) Unilever

$KHC (+3,77%) Kraft Heinz

$K (+0,83%) Kellogs

etc. Impossible after you short time all to reproduce because here a total of about 50tsd products are available.

Back at my workplace

Phone calls every minute, orders by fax and from the webshop as well as e-mail are processed by our team of sales people all day long.

At some point closing time (varies from 5pm to 9pm).

On the way home, I'm lucky enough to see our delivery fleet of about 50 trucks from

$DTG (-1,07%) Daimler truck

$MANC MAN SE.

All drivers should have returned and tomorrow morning at 2 o'clock again fully loaded thunder to the customer.

When the household chores are done. Feierabend cool blondes and getquin start to look at what you have done so for nonsense.

In this sense, the next time you visit a restaurant, think of me. Possibly the goods have been sold there by me and others to the customer😂.

But hereby duty fulfilled💪

Nomination for another episode

@DividendenWaschbaer , @Divmann

@christian and all on getquin!

Now also a stock exchange traded everyday life from the view of a gynecologist.

When I get up in the morning, I first take my Dreamlens from MPG&E out of my eyes. These are hard contact lenses that you have to wear at night and then during the day WITHOUT ANYTHING have a visual acuity of 110% (in my case). I usually have minus 5.5 - and glasses and mask - you know the fuss. Unfortunately, I have found no share at all, but still did not want to withhold MY discovery of 2021.

But now really further... with my $MBG (-1,31%) V-Class I drive half an hour to the MVZ practice in Berlin-Lichtenberg.

Arrived there my consultation nurse already has the $DELL PC and my bluetooth $LOGN (+0,61%) Keyboard + mouse up.

My ultrasound machine is leased from $SMSD (-1,59%) Samsung and makes really good pictures. I love ultrasound almost as much as laparoscopy, but since currently only the former is possible in the outpatient area, I greet my sono every morning with a hug.

My gynecological chair and colposcope manufacturers (the lamp for the gynecological examination) have unfortunately not yet made it to the stock market; but I have a sharp view thanks to the table microscope from the good Carl Zeiß. $AFX. (-0,59%)

To get results from the examination, smear systems are needed. One of them is the "ThinPrep" a fine rubber brush, manufactured by Hologic $HOLX (+0,82%) and is said to be particularly good at finding precancerous lesions.

Then it's on to the medications, because you have to deal with the pharmaceutical industry here, the range of contraceptives alone is almost endless, closely followed by the little helpers in the menopause.

The Gardasil vaccine against cervical cancer is manufactured by Sanofi-Pasteur. $SAN (+0,91%) manufactured. If I have a choice in creams and tinctures, I like to use German manufacturers like e.g. $BAYN (+1,43%) (Bayer / Jenapharm) and I often tell the patients that there is not ALWAYS something from Ratiopharm $TEVA (-1,39%) and that many complaints should first be tackled with lifestyle changes.

That's it for now - thanks for the attention!

#börsengehandelteralltag

Today and tomorrow again a few exciting earning calls! Especially $NVDA (-3,63%) , $CRM (-2,41%) and $DELL

How do you think the above will perform and who are you most looking forward to?